- Bitcoin price declined amid focus on the non-farm payroll report.
Bitcoin price dropped to 86.5K, down 3% over 24 hours.
The delayed U.S. non-farm payroll report is expected to show an addition of 50,000 jobs in November.
Additionally, U.S. retail sales data, Consumer Price Index data, and the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision are scheduled to be released this week.
Speculators buy stocks when prices fall, while institutions and whales sell.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin.
Bitcoin price fell on Tuesday, declining 3% over the past 24 hours to $87,000 amid cautious trading ahead of key American data that could influence the Federal Reserve's interest rate path.
Focus is turning to the U.S. non-farm payroll report, scheduled for release at 13:30 UTC. The delayed November employment data and part of October's data are expected to add 50,000 jobs, following the addition of 119,000 jobs in September. The unemployment rate is expected to remain at 4.4%, consistent with the ongoing slowdown in the labor market.
This data comes after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 25 basis points last week, as concerns about a slowdown in the labor market overshadowed worries about stubborn inflation. However, according to the CEM FedWatch tool, the market prices a 75% chance that the Fed will keep interest rates unchanged at the January meeting. Weak employment data could boost expectations of a rate cut, supporting Bitcoin. It is worth noting that there is still one more jobs report before the Fed's next meeting on January 28.
Attention will also be on U.S. retail sales and CPI data on Wednesday and Thursday, followed by the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision on Friday.
Sharks buy when prices decline, while whales and institutions sell.
According to Glassnode data, large Bitcoin investors holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC increased their holdings by 54,000 BTC over the past week. The total holdings of these investors rose from 3.521 million BTC to 3.575 million BTC, marking the highest accumulation rate since 2012, indicating strong confidence in Bitcoin's rise despite a 30% price drop. However, this may not be enough alone to push Bitcoin's price higher, given ongoing selling pressure from institutions and whales.
Table
Bitcoin ETF funds recorded net outflows of $357.7 million on Monday, the largest outflow since November 20. Outflows from Bitcoin ETFs for December reached $158.8 million, after $3.48 billion of outflows in November.
Major investors holding over 10,000 BTC have been behind intense selling over the past two months, as large investors and long-term holders sell at prices not seen in years. Any potential rise in Bitcoin's price may be limited until this selling pressure subsides.

#DecemberMarketOutlook
ℹ️The People's Bank of China (PBOC), at its Party Committee meeting, reaffirmed its course on:
1. Moderately easing monetary policy: readiness to use reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate adjustments to maintain liquidity, stimulate growth, and manage inflation.
2. Internationalization of the yuan: actively developing the cross-border payment system in yuan and the sustainable development of digital yuan (e-CNY) within the framework of increasing financial sector openness.
ℹ️Analysis of the impact on the crypto market:
1. Direct impact: creating a macroeconomic background
· Increasing global liquidity: The PBOC's easing policy adds liquidity to one of the world's largest economies. Part of these funds, as historically occurred, may indirectly (through various channels) seek higher yields in global markets, including crypto assets as a class of risk assets. This is an indirect positive factor for market capitalization growth.
· Inflation expectations: The explicit goal—"reasonable price increases"—signals tolerable moderate inflation. In the long term, this reinforces the narrative of crypto assets (especially Bitcoin) as a hedge against inflation and fiat currency devaluation, although the direct correlation is complex.
2. Key focus: digital yuan (e-CNY) and internationalization
· Competition or adaptation? The sustainable development of e-CNY does not directly support decentralized cryptocurrencies. It enhances a sovereign digital asset (CBDC). This:
· Acts as a competitor to stablecoins and payment cryptocurrencies in the digital payments segment.
· Drives technological adaptation: mass adoption of e-CNY will accelerate familiarity among the public and businesses with digital wallets and blockchain-like technologies, potentially lowering barriers for subsequent adoption of other digital assets.
· Control tool: CBDC provides the government with an unprecedented instrument to control monetary flow, contrasting with the philosophy of decentralized cryptocurrencies.
· Yuan internationalization: Creating a multi-channel cross-border payment system in yuan challenges the dominance of the dollar and systems like SWIFT. If successful, this could reshape the global currency architecture and create new corridors for digital assets, primarily for government-issued digital currencies.
3. Regulatory context: "ensuring national financial security"
· All initiatives are under the prism of control and security. The PBOC will strictly separate the development of its digital yuan from "speculative" decentralized cryptocurrencies.
· This means that within China, a strict ban on trading and mining cryptocurrencies (except for NFTs and blockchain services in approved zones) is likely to persist. China will promote its digital currency while restricting competitors.
ℹ️Summary conclusions:
1. Macro-effect is positive: Additional liquidity and inflationary policies of major central banks (including the Fed, ECB, and now PBOC) create a favorable environment for hard assets with limited issuance, such as Bitcoin, in the long run.
2. Development of e-CNY is a double-edged sword for the crypto market:
· Short-term: Strengthening the state-controlled digital competitor, maintaining strict regulation in China.
· Long-term: Legitimizing digital assets as a class, technological education, and potentially creating new infrastructural bridges between traditional finance (in yuan) and the decentralized world.
3. Main signal: The world is moving towards digitization of money. China is betting on a centralized, state-controlled model. The crypto market offers an alternative, decentralized model. The PBOC's policy confirms this trend but increases competition between these two paradigms.
What does this mean for investors?
Don’t expect the Chinese market to open immediately. Keep an eye on e-CNY as an indicator of the speed of digitalization and a potential future "gateway," while primarily focusing on global liquidity, which, according to the PBOC’s statement, will remain high. This is the foundation for a long-term bullish trend in the market.

With almost all leading assets trading in a range, analysts emphasize that Jerome Powell’s tone, not the rate cut itself, is likely to determine the market’s next true trend.
In recent days, Bitcoin has been moving between $88,000 and $93,000, while liquidity is decreasing toward the end of the year. Ethereum is holding around $3,100, BNB is near $886, and Solana is around $132. The total crypto market capitalization is declining toward $3.1 trillion during this period of waiting.
ETF flows indicate rotation into altcoins
Despite calm price dynamics, exchange-traded funds reveal a more detailed picture. Bitcoin ETF products reported about $60 million in outflows on Monday, while ETH, SOL, and XRP funds attracted a combined $74 million in net inflows.
Markets remain stagnant ahead of the Fed’s “binary” week
Analysts describe the sentiment as a market waiting for permission to move. Most traders are staying on the sidelines ahead of tomorrow’s FOMC meeting, where a December rate cut is considered the base scenario.
Some experts believe the cut is already fully priced in. However, Powell’s guidance will be far more important—especially whether 2026 policy will remain tighter or shift to a more dovish stance.
In their opinion, Bitcoin will likely remain locked around $91,000 immediately after the announcement unless Powell surprises the markets.
Liquidity evaporates as derivatives traders step back
QCP Capital notes that the sharp weekend moves—BTC from $88,000 to $92,000 and ETH from $2,910 to $3,150—highlight how shallow liquidity has become toward year-end.
Open interest plunges:
- Bitcoin open interest is down more than 44% since October
- Ethereum open interest has fallen by over 50%
Retail trader participation is also dropping sharply, with Google search interest returning to the lowest levels seen during the bear market.
Nevertheless, long-term buyers continue to quietly absorb supply. Around 25,000 BTC have left centralized exchanges over the past two weeks, and ETF + corporate balances now exceed exchange holdings, strengthening the structural supply shortage. Still, without a macro catalyst, this steady absorption isn’t enough to push the price out of the range.
Powell’s speech will determine Bitcoin’s next move
Analysts are unanimous that tomorrow’s guidance will set the tone for the market in the final weeks of 2025. A more cautious or “hawkish” message may push Bitcoin back to the $88,000 zone.
A more dovish outlook or a hint of further cuts in early 2026 could trigger a move toward $93,000–$95,000, with the potential to test $97,000–$106,000 if momentum returns. Until then, the dominant strategy remains waiting.
The market is stagnant—the next move depends entirely on Powell’s words.