Echoes of Early 2022
Bitcoin stabilizes above the True Market Mean, but market structure now mirrors Q1 2022 with over 25% of supply underwater. Demand is weakening across ETFs, spot, and futures, while options show compressed volatility & cautious positioning.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇

BTC faced a strong rejection at $93K last week, but as price attempts to break through this level again today, we’re seeing large short-liquidation clusters forming.
Short liquidations can act as fuel for upside, as forced buyers amplify momentum.
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At similar price levels to 21 Nov, $BTC 1W put IV spiked to 76%, reflecting aggressive downside hedging. Yesterday’s move saw only ~63%, showing a more muted risk premium. The market appears less worried, but any further downside could trigger a far sharper repricing.

A new cost-basis cluster formed after Bitcoin’s drop into the low-$80K region, showing fresh accumulation at these levels. This zone is now one of the densest on the heatmap and could act as a strong support area, likely to be defended by recent buyers.
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Liquidity on Edge
Bitcoin is stuck in a fragile $81K–$89K range as liquidity thins and realized losses surge. Futures deleverage, options stay defensive, and demand remains weak.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇
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Whales on Hyperliquid turned net-long as price fell from $90K into the low-$80K range, marking the longest sustained long positioning in months. That move has since unwound, with exposure rotating modestly net-short, reflecting shallow conviction.
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Realized losses among new investors in major altcoins are rising, as prices continue to struggle to recover, signalling growing stress across the speculative end of the market.
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$BTC sits beneath every short-term holder's realized price but remains well above deeper realized levels, leaving the market in no-man’s-land.
Regaining these bands would mark the first meaningful sign of structural recovery.
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At $126.9, about 79.6% of Solana’s circulating supply (r~478.5M SOL) is now in loss, underscoring how top-heavy the market structure had become before the recent contraction.
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$BTC realized losses have surged to levels last seen during the FTX collapse, with short-term holders driving the bulk of the capitulation. The scale and speed of these losses reflect a meaningful washout of marginal demand as recent buyers unwind into the drawdown.
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Bitcoin’s Mayer Multiple has retraced toward the lower bound of its long-term range, signalling a slowdown in momentum. Historically, such compressions have aligned with value-driven phases where price consolidates and demand begins to step in.
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Below the Band
BTC has broken below key cost-basis levels amid weak spot demand and steady ETF outflows. Derivatives remain muted, with declining OI, cycle-low funding, and options activity skewed toward downside protection.
Read the full Week On-Chain👇

During last week's downturn, altcoins have shown unusual relative strength vs BTC. While uncommon, it follows a long period of alt underperformance. Most sectors are actually outperforming BTC

$BTC has broken below the 0.75 cost-basis quantile, a level that has historically marked bear-market territory. Across cycles, reclaiming and holding above it has been key to restoring bullish structure. Bulls will want to see this level regained.
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How profitable is the market for retail across the top 3 assets?
Using the estimated retail cost basis:
• BTC: @ $92K (~104% profit)
• ETH: @ $3K (~43% profit)
• XRP: @ $2.17 (~61% profit)
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Distribution pressure is beginning to ease across key cohorts. After weeks of heavy spending, several holder groups are now moderating their selling, a sign that the most aggressive supply may be starting to fade as $BTC trades -25% off the highs.
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Altcoin relative profits are stabilizing in deep capitulation territory, with only ~5% of supply in profit, while Bitcoin’s profits have just begun to decline sharply.
This unusual divergence between BTC and alts is unprecedented in prior cycles.
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At $96K, nearly 99% of investors who accumulated Bitcoin within the past 155 days are now holding at a loss
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When downside hedging demand rises, the 25-delta skew spikes. Recent spikes have consistently aligned with short-term lows, signalling elevated fear and heavy short positioning. Useful for low-timeframe traders.