SanDisk зріс на 858% за рік, Беррі попереджає, що для напівпровідників настав «початок кінця».

SanDisk stock closed at 2 273,73 dollars on 30 June, up 10.9% in a single day and up 858% year-to-date. Michael Burry, the real‑life inspiration for The Big Short, warned on his Substack blog that he believes this is the beginning of the end for semiconductors, just a matter of time. He has opened short positions in NVIDIA, Caterpillar, Applied Materials, Tesla and the SOXX ETF.

Bernstein raises SanDisk target to 3 000 dollars

Bernstein analyst Mark Newman raised the SanDisk target from 1 700 to 3 000 dollars and reiterated an outperform rating. The fundamental support for SanDisk’s rally comes from Micron Technology’s quarterly results: quarterly sales of 41,5 billion dollars, NAND flash memory business up 360% year‑on‑year, and enterprise SSD sales exceeding 5 billion dollars for the first time.

Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrotra said: “The global memory market shock is highly likely to continue through 2027 and beyond.” He explained that the memory price crash in 2023 (Micron’s gross margin fell as low as –7.3%) exhausted the industry’s expansion capacity, and the subsequent explosion in AI demand has created a structural supply bottleneck.

Burry on Substack calls it “the beginning of the end”, opens six short positions

Michael Burry said that South Korea’s massive investment plan is the direct cause of the market surge, but he believes this momentum will eventually fade, “just a matter of time”. Burry also noted that the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is about 65% above its 200‑day moving average, a level not seen since the 2000 dot‑com bubble. The short positions Burry has opened are as follows:

· Caterpillar: shorted at 1 060,98 dollars (Burry said “I have never shorted Caterpillar before”); closed at 1 064,9 dollars on 30 June, up 3.07%, YTD up 86%, seen as a “bellwether” for AI infrastructure investment · NVIDIA · Applied Materials · Tesla · SOXX Semiconductor ETF (the specific short prices and sizes for these four were not disclosed in the report)

Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Eric Johnston sarcastically commented: “The current logic is that semiconductor companies will generate huge profits in the coming years, but the hyperscale data centre operators are making the wrong investments.”

SK Hynix ADR expected to list on Nasdaq on 10 July

SK Hynix is expected to list its American Depositary Receipts (ADR) on Nasdaq on 10 July. The report notes that SK Hynix holds about 60% of the HBM market share, and its direct listing for US investors is seen as one of the background factors for Micron Technology’s rise of only 0.79% on 30 June.

Motley Fool analysis said: “Micron Technology’s stock price may fall after 10 July, but there will be no massive sell‑off.” Motley Fool’s reasoning is that SK Hynix was already listed in South Korea, so investors who wanted to buy could already do so, unlike the case of a completely new company.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the core business driver behind SanDisk’s 858% yearly gain?

SanDisk’s gain is primarily driven by the tight supply in the NAND flash memory market. Micron’s quarterly data shows NAND business up 360% year‑on‑year, and enterprise SSD exceeding 5 billion dollars for the first time; during the AI inference phase, large‑scale storage has become a bottleneck, shifting market focus from GPU to memory and storage. Bernstein raised the SanDisk target to 3 000 dollars on the same day.

What are the specific quantitative bases for Michael Burry’s “beginning of the end” warning?

Burry provided two quantitative bases in his Substack: the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is about 65% above its 200‑day moving average, a level first seen since the 2000 dot‑com bubble; South Korea’s massive investment plan is the direct cause of the day’s surge, and Burry believes this momentum will eventually fade. He also opened short positions in Caterpillar, NVIDIA, Applied Materials, Tesla and the SOXX ETF.

What is the known impact of the SK Hynix ADR listing on 10 July on Micron Technology?

Motley Fool analysis points out that after the SK Hynix ADR listing, Micron’s stock price may fall, but there will be no massive sell‑off because SK Hynix was already listed in South Korea, and investors who wanted to buy could already do so. SK Hynix holds about 60% of the HBM market share, and its direct listing for US investors may divert some funds from Micron.