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Here's a viewpoint: BTC's bearish catalysts have basically completed their release.
The consensus around the four-year cycle and the historical "experience" from the 2022 liquidity-driven continuous collapse:
Expectations completed the release of bearish factors in a relatively short timeframe (April 2025 to February 2026) directly.
BTC dropped directly to near previous highs, then oscillated around previous highs.
Next, whether BTC's bottom is 60,000, 50,000, 40,000, or lower primarily depends on the macro environment and US equities.