Gate News, on March 25, CME "Fed Watch" data shows: The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 9.3%, with a probability of maintaining the current rate at 90.7%. The probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates cumulatively by 25 basis points through June is 17.1%, with a probability of maintaining the current rate at 80.2%.

Gate News Report: As of March 24, the latest data from Polymarket shows that market odds indicate a 95% probability that the Federal Reserve will hold rates steady in April this year, a 3% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike, and only a 1% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut.

Gate News Report: On March 24, according to CME (Chicago Mercantile Exchange) "Fed Watch" data, the probability of the Federal Reserve raising rates by 25 basis points in April is 7.2%, with a probability of maintaining rates unchanged at 92.8%. The probability of the Federal Reserve cumulatively raising rates by 25 basis points through June is 9.1%, with a cumulative rate increase of 50 basis points at 0.2% probability, and a probability of maintaining rates unchanged at 90.7%.

中東情勢の緊迫化により原油価格とドルは上昇しているにもかかわらず、金価格は下落を続けている。アナリストは、米連邦準備制度理事会（Fed）が金利を据え置き、市場の下落リスクが金価格を抑制すると考えているが、長期的には流動性の緩和が金価格を押し上げる可能性があり、今後の金価格は6,000ドルから6,200ドル/オンスに達すると予測している。

Gate News reports that on March 19, gold prices have recently broken below the $4,600 mark. Market analysts believe that the surge in U.S. Treasury yields (an indicator measuring bond investment returns) and the Federal Reserve's (U.S. central bank) delayed interest rate cut expectations are the main factors putting pressure on precious metal prices.

米国2月のPPI（生産者物価指数）年率は3.4％で、予想の2.9％を上回り、2022年以来の最高値を記録した。アナリストは、このデータが最近の地政学的イベントの影響を受けていないと指摘し、そのためトレーダーは2026年の米連邦準備制度理事会（FRB）の利下げ予測を引き下げている。

Gate News report: On March 17, "Fed spokesperson" Nick Timiraos stated that the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to remain silent this week, but market expectations are forcing the Fed to outline its policy path. Two former Federal Reserve chairs told him they hope to avoid making predictions about rate cuts in the near term. Whether current Federal Reserve officials will adopt the same attitude has become the core focus of this meeting. Hawks and doves may stick to their respective policy stances by pointing to the same economic shock.

Gate News Report: On March 15th, according to CME "Fed Watch" data, the Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision at 02:00 next Thursday. The data shows that the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates by 25 basis points in March is 1.9%, with a 98.1% probability of maintaining rates unchanged. Looking ahead to April, the probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates cumulatively by 50 basis points is 0.1%, the probability of cutting rates cumulatively by 25 basis points is 5.8%, and the probability of maintaining rates unchanged is 94.1%.

ChainCatcherのニュースによると、金十の報告によれば、摩根士丹利はレポートの中で、ウォッシュが率いる米連邦準備制度理事会の下では、実質的な変化は主に資産負債表政策を通じて徐々に現れる可能性が高いと述べています。米連邦準備制度の資産負債表規模を縮小することは、銀行の準備金需要を減少させることを意味し、この過程には時間がかかり、また規制の枠組みの調整も必要となります。摩根士丹利はさらに、より控えめな「存在感」のある米連邦準備制度の採用は、金利のスティープ化を促進すると付け加えています。

ChainCatcherのニュースによると、金時によると、CMEの「Fed Watch」によると、FRBが3月までに25ベーシスポイント利下げする確率は13.4%で、金利を維持できる確率は86.6%です。 4月時点で、累積25ベーシスポイント利下げの確率は25.5%、金利を変わらし続ける確率は72.2%、累積50ベーシスポイント利下げの確率は2.2%でした。