Trump mediates, Israel and Palestine ceasefire, The Federal Reserve (FED) hints at interest rate cuts, does the crypto market reverse overnight?

Original | Odaily Odaily Daily Report (@OdailyChina)

Author｜Wenser（**@wenser 2010 ）

No one expected that overnight, the tension in the Israel-Palestine conflict would suddenly calm down; at the same time, the Federal Reserve, which has never hinted at interest rate cuts, also began to signal that it might resume its rate-cutting pace in July. Perhaps influenced by these two macro-level favorable factors, the crypto market showed signs of a sudden bull run, with BTC once rebounding above 106,000 USD; ETH rebounded above 2,400 USD.

Odaily will summarize the “New Events in the Middle East” and the related news from the Federal Reserve from last night and today for readers’ reference.

Trump’s “War Scepter”: From Middle East Alerts to Israel-Hamas Ceasefire

As we mentioned earlier in the article “The U.S. Strikes Iranian Nuclear Facilities, ETH Drops 7% as War Fuel”, Trump mobilized military forces to raid Iranian nuclear facilities, with cryptocurrencies including ETH and BTC becoming “war fuel”; on the evening of June 23, Beijing time, tensions in the Middle East escalated further, with Iran and Israel exchanging harsh words, and the U.S. also “joining the battle”. Many countries in the Middle East had to choose to close their airspace due to threats of Iranian attacks. In such an environment, Trump still fully utilized his adeptness, combining his “war scepter” to temporarily brake the Israel-Iran conflict in just about ten hours.

Iran: From “Preparing for War” to “Ceasefire???”

On the evening of June 22, a senior Iranian official stated that the Iranian government hopes the United States would “directly” pay for the war, rather than standing behind Israel and promoting its own agenda without incurring any costs. The official said, “Iran estimates that this war could last up to two years, and Iran is prepared for this.” The words clearly reflect the determination to drag the United States into the quagmire of war.

Subsequently, Iranian media cited statements from senior Iranian political figures indicating that Iran is likely to attack U.S. military facilities within the next few hours.

Just when the crypto market was in a state of alarm, Iran indeed took action.

According to a report by AXIOS journalist Barak Ravid, Israeli officials stated that Iran launched 6 missiles at the U.S. base in Qatar. Subsequently, there were reports of explosions over the capital of Qatar, Doha. As a result, Qatar closed its airspace, and the UAE quickly followed suit with plans to close its own airspace. Meanwhile, alarms were sounded at all U.S. military bases in the Middle East, including those in Syria, Iraq, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, the UAE, and Oman.

The Iranian Armed Forces subsequently stated: “Destructive and powerful” missiles were used to attack the U.S. Al Udeid Base in Qatar during the operation.

Trump claims Israel and Palestine have reached a ceasefire agreement

But at around 6 a.m. today, Trump posted on his social media platform Truth Social that Israel and Iran had agreed to a comprehensive ceasefire. Iranian officials confirmed to Reuters that Iran has accepted a ceasefire with Israel proposed by the United States. In addition, after Iran attacked the US air base in Qatar on the 23rd, Trump and Vice President Vance discussed a ceasefire proposal between Israel and Iran with the Emir of the Qatari state. Trump told the emir that Israel had agreed to a ceasefire and asked Qatar for help convincing Iran to agree to a ceasefire as well.

The cryptocurrency market has begun to rebound, possibly influenced by this news. Currently, Iran’s attitude has softened somewhat, but the achievement of a ceasefire agreement still needs time to be tested.

At 8:46 today, according to a post by the Iranian Foreign Minister**, it was stated****, “So far, no agreement has been reached between Israel and Iran regarding a ceasefire or the cessation of military actions. However, as long as the Israeli regime does not stop its illegal aggression against the Iranian people by 4 AM Tehran time (8:30 AM Beijing time), we do not intend to continue to respond afterwards. The final decision on stopping our military actions will be made later.”**

Israel: From “Planned Attack” to “Agreement for Ceasefire”

The shift in attitude from the Israeli side can be described as extremely rapid.

On the evening of the 23rd, according to the Wall Street Journal, Israeli officials said they would continue to strike Iran’s military infrastructure but are seeking to end the war with Iran as soon as possible.

Subsequently, a spokesperson for the Israel Defense Forces stated that Israel will attack Iran’s military infrastructure in the coming days.

Perhaps it was Iran’s attacks on American military bases in the Middle East that made Israel realize that the existing military objectives had been achieved, and ending the war might be a better choice. Subsequently, Israel accepted the U.S. mediation and agreed to a ceasefire.

Israeli Army Radio reporter Yanir Cozin previously announced that he had spoken with Israeli officials and learned that the Israeli side is indeed close to reaching a ceasefire agreement with Iran, but it still needs to survive the night (early this morning) in peace, because Israel is currently launching a strong attack on Iran, and the Iranian side may also launch a fierce attack on Israel. Earlier in the day, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu asked cabinet members at the end of a cabinet meeting to temporarily comment on recent developments, namely “Trump’s announcement that Israel and Iran agree to a comprehensive ceasefire”, until further notice.

America: Launch missiles first, then celebrate peace

According to AXIOS, the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran was reached through mediation by Qatar and the United States. After Iran retaliated against the U.S. airbase in Qatar, Iran sent a message to the White House through Qatar, stating that it would not launch any more attacks. The White House also sent a message emphasizing that it would not retaliate against Iran’s attacks and that the U.S. was ready to resume negotiations with Iran. Subsequently, the United States, Israel, Qatar, and Iran continued negotiations and reached an agreement on the terms and start time of the ceasefire.

Previously, Trump had posted on social media that the U.S. nuclear submarines are the “most powerful and deadly” weapons in history, and that 30 “Tomahawk” missiles were launched, all hitting their targets (i.e., Iranian nuclear facilities).

Trump also understands the principle that “peace can be achieved through war.”

It is worth mentioning that after the announcement of the ceasefire agreement between Israel and Palestine, Trump also posted two thought-provoking images on the Truth Social platform: one is a black and white personal photo with the caption “Peace through strength”; the other is a photo released by the White House office of Trump saluting with one hand, captioned “Peace & Harmony.”

Trump: “Cheers to the great United States”

Since then, this 12-day “Israel-Palestine conflict” has temporarily come to an end, and the details of the subsequent ceasefire agreement between the United States and both Israel and Palestine are yet to be revealed.

Federal Reserve Speaks: First Hint of “Rate Cut”, July Expected to Reveal More

On the other hand, the Federal Reserve, which has never budged on the issue of interest rate cuts, has also begun to hint that it may consider lowering rates in July.

Fed Governor Bowman hinted: may support a rate cut in July

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman stated: “If inflationary pressures are controlled, I will support lowering the policy interest rate as soon as possible at the next meeting to bring it closer to neutral levels and maintain a healthy labor market.”

Bowman has been very concerned about inflation risks over the past year. She stated that she believes tariffs could lead to “slight and one-off increases” in prices, as she expects economic weakness to intensify this year. She described the labor market as solid and expected it to be close to full employment. However, she cited evidence of vulnerabilities (the weakening of labor market vitality, slowing economic growth, and a narrow concentration of job growth) to demonstrate that the Federal Reserve “places greater emphasis on the downside risks to our future employment task.” This is the first substantive comment on the economic outlook made by Bowman since Trump’s election, and she was confirmed as vice chair for supervision by the Senate this spring.

Goolsbee of the Federal Reserve: Interest rates should continue to be lowered if the impact of trade policy disappears.

The Fed’s Goolsbee said in his speech this morning that we should continue to cut interest rates if the impact of trade policy wears off. It then added: “The lack of significant inflationary pressures since Trump imposed tariffs on April 2 could allow the Fed to cut rates again.” He recalled that the Fed expected to cut interest rates at the beginning of the year and paused them, mainly because of policy uncertainty; “If we don’t see inflation as a result of these tariff increases, it seems to me that we never left what I call the golden road before April 2,” he said. He likened tariffs to throwing a lot of dust into the air, so it’s hard to see if you’re still on your way. If there’s no dust in the air, then I think we should go ahead (with a rate cut). ”

Summary: The market has rebounded briefly, but the long-term trend still needs to be verified.

Under the influence of two major positive news, the ceasefire between Israel and Palestine and the Federal Reserve hinting at interest rate cuts, the crypto market briefly rebounded. BTC is currently stabilizing around 105,000 dollars, ETH is above 2,400 dollars, and SOL is currently around 143 dollars.

The future market trends and directions of mainstream cryptocurrencies may still require a conclusion to the Israel-Hamas conflict and an early announcement of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut decision. However, with the extreme tug-of-war and sudden shifts in attitudes among the parties involved, the cryptocurrency market is likely to search for answers amidst fluctuations.