# NonfarmPayrollsComing

#非农就业数据
Tonight's US December non-farm payrolls data came in below market expectations of 60,000 to 73,000, recording only 50,000. This is the first data point since the end of the government shutdown wave at the end of 2025 that the market considers relatively clean, yet it sends a clear warning signal: the momentum of the US labor market's recovery is significantly weakening.
The increase of 50,000 in employment is not only below expectations but also continues to decline from the previous figure. The unemployment rate remains high at 4.6%, failing to fall back to 4.5% as expected, indicati

Non-farm payroll data is no longer the "highlight" of the market, and the structural changes in the market by 2026
Looking back at recent market evolution, a clear trend is emerging: the instantaneous impact of non-farm payroll data on the market is weakening, and this characteristic is expected to become even more pronounced by 2026. The reasons are mainly twofold: the market has become accustomed to the bombardment of high-frequency macro data, reducing the marginal informational value of individual data points; at the same time, algorithms and expectation management have made completely une

From "Data Itself" to "Market Interpretation," the True Signal of Non-Farm Payrolls in 2026
When discussing the 2026 non-farm payroll data, the market is no longer solely focused on the indicator of "new jobs added." What truly influences the market is the economic resilience and policy space conveyed by the data behind it. At the tail end of a high-interest-rate cycle or during a potential turning point, non-farm payrolls are more like a "health check report" for the economy, rather than just a simple switch for rises and falls.
If in 2026, non-farm payrolls remain neutral to stable, and the

The game between non-farm payrolls and the Federal Reserve in 2026: what is the market really paying attention to?
Entering 2026, the core significance of non-farm employment data has shifted from “whether it is overheating” to “whether policy adjustments are permitted.” The Federal Reserve’s current focus is no longer on whether employment is strong, but on how employment impacts the inflation trajectory.
If non-farm data performs steadily and wage growth continues to slow, this is seen as an ideal combination—no recession in the economy, and inflation under control. The market often pre-trad

From a trading perspective, should we follow the trend or wait and watch when it comes to the 2026 non-farm payroll data?
For traders, the biggest challenge of the 2026 non-farm data is not judging whether the data is good or bad, but how to respond to the market's non-linear reactions. The simple logic of "good data equals long USD and short gold" has clearly become ineffective. In most cases, the market expectations before the non-farm release have already priced in most information. True opportunities often arise when there is a "discrepancy between expectations and reality." For example, i