The Federal Reserve will release its interest rate decision and the latest Summary of Economic Projections (SEP) on June 17. Market focus is on whether the newly appointed chair, Kevin Warsh, will submit his own “dot plot” rate forecasts. U.S. Bank economist Aditya Bhave expects Warsh not to submit; Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle assumes he will not submit, but is not entirely certain.
June 17 FOMC Background: The Institutional Role of the Dot Plot
The dot plot is part of the Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), showing the median of FOMC members’ expectations for the future path of interest rates, published each quarter. Strictly speaking, the SEP is not an official policy commitment from the Federal Reserve; rather, it is the midpoint of members’ views distribution. In addition to the dot plot, the SEP also includes unemployment rate, inflation, and GDP forecasts.
Charles Schwab’s chief investment strategist Liz Ann Sonders confirmed: “The SEP sometimes becomes a driver of market sentiment, but its accuracy is at best general. However, it is indeed one way the Federal Reserve expresses its policy views, and markets often react to those views.”
Warsh’s Position: First-Hand Remarks from the April Hearing
At Warsh’s U.S. Senate confirmation hearing in April 2026, he confirmed that the SEP is part of what he described as an “overcommunication” problem for the Federal Reserve, and cited the historical lesson of how inflation in 2021-2022 was misjudged as “transitory.”
His original remarks are recorded as: “The Federal Reserve tells the whole world what their dot plot is, and what their forecasts are. But the Federal Reserve is also made up of people. Then they insist on those forecasts for too long.” He said this is “an important change the Federal Reserve needs to make.”
Analysts’ Confirmed Views: Expectations and Warnings of Risks
The following are the confirmed stances of named analysts:
Bill English (Yale University professor, former Federal Reserve governor of monetary affairs): “In my view, the likelihood that he does not want to submit interest rate forecasts is high. There may be others on the committee who also don’t like the dot plot, and they might be willing to take a similar approach.”
Aditya Bhave (U.S. Bank economist): Expects Warsh will not submit dot-plot forecasts (no direct quote)
David Mericle (Goldman Sachs economist): “We assume he will not submit dot-plot forecasts, but we’re not fully certain about it.”
Claudia Sahm (Chief Economist at New Century Advisors): Warned that if Warsh skips the dot plot, investors may interpret it as an attempt to soften the hawkish shift emerging within the FOMC; her research report confirmed that “a Federal Reserve that appears to be hiding internal discussions may be seen as too complacent about inflation risks.”
Frequently Asked Questions
If Warsh does not submit the dot plot, is there a historical precedent?
Since the global financial crisis, the Federal Reserve has continued to use the dot plot for about 14 years, during which every chair has submitted it. If Warsh chooses to skip it, it would be the first break in roughly 14 years, but the specific decision will only be confirmed after the June 17 FOMC meeting.
Why does Claudia Sahm warn that skipping the dot plot could send the wrong signal?
Claudia Sahm’s confirmed view is: if Warsh does not submit the dot plot, the market may interpret it as an attempt to “downplay the hawkish shift within the FOMC,” rather than as a reform to policy communication. A Federal Reserve that appears to be hiding internal discussions may be viewed as overly complacent about inflation risks. This is her personal analytical view published in her research report.
Where did Warsh explicitly criticize the SEP and the dot plot?
At Warsh’s U.S. Senate confirmation hearing in April 2026, he characterized the SEP as part of the Federal Reserve’s overcommunication problem and cited the misjudgment of inflation in 2021-2022 as “transitory” as a specific example. The relevant hearing records are public documents.
