Fundstrat co-founder and BitMine chairman Tom Lee said on May 18 on X that the selling pressure on Ethereum is coming from rising oil prices, with ETH and oil prices showing a negative correlation at a historical high. On May 17, on-chain analytics firm Lookonchain monitored that BitMine bought 89,026 ETH from exchanges, worth about $197.6 million.
Tom Lee’s confirmed analysis: ETH’s correlation with oil prices
Based on Tom Lee’s statement on X, he confirmed the following:
ETH and oil prices relationship: The negative correlation between ETH and oil prices is currently at the historical highest level
Recent price action: Over the past six weeks, as oil prices rose, ETH prices fell in tandem
Tom Lee’s characterization: This is “short-term tactical volatility,” not a long-term structural shift
Long-term drivers: Lee said that structural factors such as tokenization and AI agents have “already been put in place”
Lee said he expects the Ethereum price in 2026 to strengthen; this is his personal outlook, not market consensus.
BitMine’s latest purchase and holdings confirmation data
According to Lookonchain monitoring on May 17, this purchase was carried out through four newly created wallets:
From Kraken: 25,000 ETH (about $55.67 million)
From FalconX: three lots of 15,000 ETH each (about $33.30 million per lot)
From Kraken: about 19,026 ETH (about $4.28 million)
Total for this round: 89,026 ETH, about $197.6 million
According to BitMine’s official update as of May 11, 2026, the confirmation is as follows:
Total ETH holdings: 5,206,790 ETH
Staked ETH: about 4.71 million ETH (about $11.1 billion)
Annualized staking income: $319 million; 7-day annualized return rate 2.86%
Other assets: 201 BTC, $775 million cash
As of the week of May 11, BitMine’s purchase speed slowed to 26,659 ETH (about $63.0 million). Tom Lee explained that the company is adjusting its buying pace to move toward its long-term target of holding 5% of the total ETH supply.
Confirmation data for early Ethereum investors buying the dip
Based on Lookonchain on-chain monitoring confirmed on May 16, an anonymous early Ethereum holder (known in the community as an OG):
Historic buys: 11,005 ETH bought from ShapeShift for $3.46 per ETH 10 years ago
Historic sells: Sold at $2,777 per ETH more than a year ago, receiving $30.56 million in USDC, profit of $30.50 million, return rate of about 803x
Latest buys: Invested $4.26 million in USDC to buy 1,951 ETH at about $2,182 per ETH
FAQ
Why does Tom Lee think these specific factors push up oil prices and, in turn, suppress ETH?
According to Tom Lee’s statement on X, he did not explicitly list the specific factors that push up oil prices in this post. His core view is that the negative correlation between ETH and oil prices is at its historical highest level, which he characterizes as short-term tactical factors; tokenization and AI agents remain the long-term drivers he sees.
How far is BitMine currently from its 5% target of holding total ETH supply?
According to BitMine’s official update on May 11, the company holds 5,206,790 ETH. Ethereum’s current total supply is about 120 million ETH, and 5,206,790 ETH is about 4.34%. To reach the 5% target (about 6 million ETH), it still needs to accumulate about 790k more ETH.
What is the entry price and cost for the ETH OG to buy the dip this time?
According to Lookonchain data, this anonymous wallet invested about $4.26 million USDC at a price of about $2,182 per ETH to buy 1,951 ETH, below its historical sell average price of $2,777 per ETH.
