BTC rises slightly 0.33% in 15 minutes: geopolitical tensions escalate as bets on the Fed’s rate hikes intensify

From 21:30 to 21:45 (UTC) on July 22, 2026, BTC saw a brief uptick within 15 minutes, with a Return % of +0.33% and a price range of 65,910.3–66,131.2 USDT, along with an Ampl of 0.34%. The current offer is $65,924.5, down 0.66% over the past 24 hours. Overall, the market is showing a narrow-range consolidation pattern with low participation. The Filled Amount is only 159.43 BTC, indicating the market is in a wait-and-see stage ahead of choosing a direction.

The main driver behind this move is the continued escalation of the U.S.–Iran military conflict. The U.S. carried out military strikes for the 11th consecutive night against Iran. Iran retaliated by attacking U.S. Navy vessels and by shutting the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher (WTI +2.82%, Brent +3.28%). Geopolitical risk has increased demand for safe-haven assets. Gold broke above $4,120, and the “digital gold” narrative for BTC has received some support, though the impact is limited. Meanwhile, Trump threatens further strikes on Iran’s infrastructure; war-cost estimates stand at $37.5 billion, with 18 U.S. service members killed. Ongoing military tensions have weighed on risk assets, limiting BTC’s upside potential.

Second, the ongoing tug-of-war around expectations for the Fed’s rate hikes continues to affect the market. Fed officials have sent mixed signals: the market is pricing a 24.1% probability of a rate hike in July, a 69% probability in September, and the 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.6%. Interest-rate uncertainty suppresses BTC valuation upside elasticity. In addition, after BTC previously broke above the $66,445 key resistance level, it failed to hold; the price retreated below that level, suggesting insufficient upside momentum. The order book shows a bid-ask depth ratio of 3.94, with bids significantly favoring, but order book depth is extremely shallow, limiting the strength of this signal.

Key risks to watch next: if the Fed’s July 29 FOMC statement wording turns hawkish, it will likely pressure BTC; if the U.S.–Iran conflict results in the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed, further upside in oil prices will intensify inflation expectations; and whether the $66,445 resistance level can be effectively broken is a critical observation point. In the current low Filled Amount environment, direction remains unclear, so it’s important to watch for a volume expansion breakout as a trend-confirmation signal.