According to Pu銀 International data, the peak of Hong Kong stock unlockings will occur in July and September 2026, involving market values of HKD 300 billion and HKD 500 billion respectively. Several leading funds have revealed that the returns on Hong Kong IPO projects exited this year generally range from 50% to 60%, with some outstanding performers approaching 80%. Many market-based cornerstone investors state that selling after unlockings is a "natural choice."
Pu銀 International: HKD 300 Billion Market Value Unlocking in July
Based on Pu銀 International data, the peak of Hong Kong stock unlockings concentrates in July and September 2026, with unlockings in these months reaching market values of HKD 300 billion and HKD 500 billion respectively.
Several top funds have disclosed that the returns on IPO investments exited this year generally reach 50% to 60%, with some high performers nearing 80%. Under profitable conditions, many market-based cornerstone investors say that selling after unlockings is a "natural choice," as converting paper gains into cash is the only real profit. This forms the core selling pressure driving the current unlocking wave.
Zhipu's First-Day Trading Volume Reaches HKD 16.9 Billion
According to reports, here are two recent representative unlocking cases:
Zhipu (02513-HK): On July 8, the first-day trading volume surged to HKD 16.9 billion, significantly higher than normal levels; some state-owned shareholders announced they would continue holding, and the stock price unexpectedly rose 13%. However, the market generally believes this does not mean selling pressure has disappeared.
MiniMax: The unlocked shares account for up to 63%, and the stock price has dropped sharply from the high point in March to about HKD 323 in early July, facing greater impact.
"Relationship-based IPO" Unlocking Period Interfered by Non-Market Factors
According to Tencent Finance, the Hong Kong IPO market has recently seen many "non-market projects," which often rely on relationship-based quota exchanges. As the unlocking period approaches, the exit pace is influenced by non-market factors. For example, some company founders privately persuade funds to hold; some brokerages restrict trading during the unlocking window under the pretext of "system maintenance" to stabilize the stock price. While such human interventions temporarily ease selling pressure, they also increase market liquidity anxiety, causing problems to accumulate rather than resolve.
Southbound Capital Flows via HKEX Connect Show Net Outflows in May; Foreign Investment Focus Remains on Taiwan, Korea, and Japan AI Industry Chains
According to reports, the capital supporting Hong Kong stocks faces structural gaps: Southbound funds via HKEX Connect have significantly cooled since 2026, with net outflows even in May. Overseas investors remain cautious about Hong Kong stocks, with their Asian allocations mainly focused on the AI industry chains in South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan (such as TSMC, SK Hynix).
Market analysis indicates that a large-scale return of foreign capital to Hong Kong stocks requires clear signals such as GDP rebound, consumption recovery, and housing market bottoming. In the absence of additional external funds, Hong Kong stocks are currently in a "fish in a pond" state, with capital only rotating among different stocks. If liquidity suddenly becomes unbalanced during the peak of the unlocking wave, the market could face more severe volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
How large is the 2026 Hong Kong stock unlocking wave?
According to Pu銀 International data, the unlocking in July 2026 involves a market value of up to HKD 300 billion, and in September, it reaches HKD 500 billion, making these the two peak months for Hong Kong stock unlockings.
How did Zhipu (02513-HK) perform on its first day of unlocking?
Reports indicate that on July 8, 2026, Zhipu's first-day trading volume surged to HKD 16.9 billion (significantly above normal levels); some state-owned shareholders announced they would continue holding, and the stock price unexpectedly rose 13%.
What is the current situation of capital supporting Hong Kong stocks?
Reports show that Southbound funds via HKEX Connect have significantly cooled since 2026, with net outflows in May. Overseas investors' Asian allocations remain focused on Taiwan, Korea, and Japan's AI industry chains, maintaining caution toward Hong Kong stocks. A large-scale return of foreign capital awaits clear signals such as GDP rebound and consumption recovery.
