Hana Securities stated that recent declines in Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stocks represent supply-demand normalization after rapid gains rather than AI demand collapse. Analyst Kim Du-eon explained the core issue is reassessment of investment efficiency as AI infrastructure investment continues with memory remaining a bottleneck. June exports reached a record $102.25 billion with semiconductor exports surging 199.5% to $44.82 billion, indicating underlying demand strength persists despite near-term volatility from foreign selling and National Pension rebalancing.
June Exports Hit Record $102.25 Billion as Semiconductor Shipments Surge 199.5%
June Korean exports totaled $102.25 billion, up 70.9% year-over-year, marking the first time monthly exports exceeded $100 billion. Semiconductor exports reached $44.82 billion, increasing 199.5%. In early July, DDR4 1Gx8 spot prices rose 1.26% within one week, while DDR5 demand remained strong. Kim stated, "If AI demand had structurally collapsed, prices should have weakened first. The signals we are seeing now are actually the opposite."
Foreign Investors Net Sold $98.8 Billion in H1 Amid Profit-Taking and Rebalancing
Foreign investors net sold approximately $98.8 billion (about 148 trillion won) of Korean stocks in the first half of the year. Hana Securities characterized this selling as profit-taking and rebalancing rather than crisis-driven divestment. As Korean stocks surged on AI and semiconductor themes, foreign investors reduced their increased allocations. Foreign reserves at the end of June stood at $427.36 billion, up $370 million from the previous month, representing 21.8% of GDP. The April current account surplus was $28.29 billion, with goods balance surplus at $33.88 billion. Kim stated, "It is difficult to call a situation where exports are increasing, current account is accumulating, and foreign reserves are maintained a foreign exchange crisis."
National Pension Domestic Stock Allocation Reaches 28.5% Against 20.8% Target
The National Pension Service raised its domestic stock target allocation to 20.8% from 14.9%, but the actual allocation is estimated to have reached 28.5% due to the Korean stock market surge. Based on the target ratio alone, potential selling volume could reach 138 trillion won. However, considering the maximum allowable ranges for Strategic Asset Allocation (SAA) and Tactical Asset Allocation (TAA), approximately 6 trillion won of buying room exists. Market observers estimate the National Pension could sell around 4 trillion won monthly. Hana Securities stated the key factor is pace rather than scale, noting that while the shift from strong buyer to neutral or selling participant is disappointing, it is difficult to characterize this as a "selling bomb" that will collapse the market.
Analyst Warns Chipflation Could Slow Customer Purchases if Memory Prices Rise Too Fast
Kim identified "chipflation" as a remaining risk, noting that while memory price increases benefit semiconductor companies, they represent costs to customers. If prices rise too rapidly, purchasing speed for PCs, smartphones, and servers could slow. Kim stated, "What the market needs to watch now is not memory price increases themselves, but whether those costs can be absorbed within AI infrastructure investment. Stock prices will rise in periods when chipflation expands earnings, but valuations will shake in periods when it pushes out demand." Kim emphasized that increased volatility differs from the end of a bull market, stating, "When fear creates prices, numbers create opportunities."
FAQ
What did Hana Securities say about recent Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix stock declines?
Hana Securities stated that the declines represent supply-demand normalization after rapid price gains rather than AI demand collapse. Analyst Kim Du-eon explained the core issue is reassessment of investment efficiency, not demand disappearance, as AI infrastructure investment continues with memory remaining a bottleneck.
How much did Korean semiconductor exports increase in June?
June semiconductor exports reached $44.82 billion, increasing 199.5% year-over-year. Total June exports hit a record $102.25 billion, up 70.9%, marking the first time monthly exports exceeded $100 billion.
What is the National Pension's estimated domestic stock allocation versus its target?
The National Pension Service's domestic stock allocation is estimated at 28.5%, significantly above its 20.8% target. Market observers estimate the pension fund could sell around 4 trillion won monthly as part of rebalancing, though considering Strategic Asset Allocation and Tactical Asset Allocation ranges, approximately 6 trillion won of buying room may exist.
