Microsoft Corp. stock declined 24% year to date through June 24, marking its worst first-half performance since 2000, while retail trader sentiment on Stocktwits flipped to bearish from bullish early Thursday. The decline contrasts sharply with semiconductor stocks, which have risen nearly four times in the first six months of the year, even as both sectors participate in the AI trade. Microsoft faces pressure from a broader software stock selloff and intensifying competition from Alphabet's Google Gemini and Anthropic's expanding AI offerings. The stock now trades at 20.2 times forward earnings, its lowest price-to-earnings ratio since late 2016, and ranks as the worst performer among the Magnificent Seven group of technology equities.
Stocktwits Sentiment Shifts to Bearish as Traders Cite Semiconductor Rally
Retail sentiment for Microsoft on Stocktwits shifted to bearish from bullish the previous day, with traders highlighting the disconnect between semiconductor gains and Big Tech losses. One trader wrote on Stocktwits: "$MSFT so let me get this straight, memory chips keep on rallying and making new highs while their customer hyperscalers keep making new lows, makes perfect sense." Another commented: "$AMZN $NVDA $NVDA $META $MSFT $GOOGL So glad I bought Micron. MAG7 holders are all brain dead giving all their cash to us at 86% margin. Pure profit! Get brutally mugged by memory, Mag7 bagholders!" The sentiment shift followed Micron's blowout quarterly results reported on Wednesday, which drove shares of the company and other semiconductor firms sharply higher.
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Semiconductor Stocks Rise Four Times While Big Tech Lags
Chip stocks including Intel, Micron, and Western Digital have risen nearly four times in the first six months of the year, creating a sharp performance divergence with Microsoft and other Big Tech giants. The contrast persists despite all companies serving as key players in the AI trade. Alphabet's Google Gemini advances have helped lift GOOGL shares, while Anthropic continues to rapidly expand its AI offerings. Microsoft has reportedly explored restructuring its Xbox business and is considering integrating China's low-cost DeepSeek models into its Copilot platform.
Analysts Maintain Buy Ratings with $561.39 Average Price Target
Despite the year-to-date decline, 53 out of 56 analysts maintain a Buy or higher rating on Microsoft stock, with the remaining three rating it Hold, according to Koyfin data. The analysts' average price target of $561.39 implies a 53% upside from the stock's closing price on Monday. The Windows developer's current valuation of 20.2 times forward earnings represents its lowest multiple since late 2016, a period preceding the company's strong gains fueled by its early partnership with OpenAI and the integration of AI across its cloud and software businesses.
FAQ
What is Microsoft's year-to-date stock performance through June 24?
Microsoft Corp. stock declined 24% year to date through June 24, marking its worst first-half performance since 2000. The stock now trades at 20.2 times forward earnings, its lowest price-to-earnings ratio since late 2016.
Why did Stocktwits sentiment for Microsoft turn bearish?
Retail sentiment on Stocktwits flipped to bearish from bullish early Thursday as traders highlighted the disconnect between semiconductor stocks rising nearly four times in the first six months and Microsoft ranking as the worst performer in the Magnificent Seven group. Traders cited memory chip rallies contrasting with Big Tech losses following Micron's blowout quarterly results reported on Wednesday.
What do analysts recommend for Microsoft stock at current levels?
Analysts overwhelmingly recommend buying Microsoft shares, with 53 out of 56 analysts maintaining a Buy or higher rating and the remaining three rating it Hold, according to Koyfin data. Their average price target of $561.39 implies a 53% upside from the stock's closing price on Monday.
