Oil Market Shifts to Stability, Expected to Stay at $75-80 per Barrel

According to Karsten Junius, chief economist at Swiss financial firm, on July 6, the oil market has transitioned from supply concerns to initial stability. Junius noted that a U.S.-Iran agreement could facilitate the resumption of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, framed as a memorandum of understanding to provide a framework for broader negotiations, though final outcomes remain uncertain.

Oil exports remain significantly below pre-conflict levels, and related bottlenecks are expected to persist. Meanwhile, demand for rebuilding strategic and commercial reserves will continue to support prices. Junius forecasts oil prices will stabilize at roughly $75-80 per barrel over the next year.