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ETHUSDT 4h Market Trend Analysis Report
Current price: 4504.63 USDT
24h Change: -1.637%
Main support levels: 4457.63 USDT (S1), 4390.53 USDT (S2)
Main resistance levels: 4629.91 USDT (R1), 4735.09 USDT (R2)
Current trend: fluctuating bearish (price is below MA5/MA10, short-term under pressure but has not broken key support)
Detailed explanation
Technical Indicator Overview
1. Moving Average System:
MA5 (4576.87) has crossed below MA10 (4602.12), and MA20 (4629.09) is sloping downwards, indicating a bearish alignment.
The current price is below all short-term moving averages, indicating short-term weakness, but MA120 (4427.95) still serves as long-term support.
2. MACD:
DIF (25.30) is below DEA (49.65), the histogram is negative (-24.34), the dead cross continues, and bearish momentum is dominant.
3. BOLL：
The price is between the lower band (4497.66) and the middle band (4629.09), and %B (0.10%) is close to the lower band, indicating oversold but not broken through.
If it rebounds to the middle track (4629.09), it may encounter resistance; breaking below the lower track will accelerate the downward movement.
4. RSI：
RSI6 (28.78) has entered the oversold zone, RSI12/14 (42.84/45.32) is neutral to weak, there is a short-term demand for a rebound, but the trend has not reversed.
5. KDJ：
K (21.15) and D (26.40) are moving downward, J (10.63) has hit the bottom, and a death cross is in operation, but the extremely low value of J may trigger a short-term rebound.
Capital and Volume-Price Analysis
Funding Rate: 0.00357500% (Neutral), no extreme bullish or bearish sentiment.
Trading Volume: Recent decline accompanied by increased volume (such as the sharp drop in volume during the 1757073600000 period), but insufficient volume during the rebound, with bears in control.
Capital Flow:
Contract funds: 24H net outflow of 1.27 billion USDT (main forces withdrawing), continuous outflow in the short term (5m-4H), significant short pressure.
Spot funds: 24H net inflow of 7 million USDT (retail investors buying the dip), but in the medium to long term (3D/7D) there is still a net outflow, lacking support from large funds.
Analysis result
Direction: Cautiously short (the trend is bearish, but be wary of a rebound due to overselling).
Entry Timing:
Short Selling: Enter when the price rebounds to 4580-4629 (MA5/BOLL middle track) and the trading volume decreases.
Long: Limited to short-term, the price needs to stabilize above 4457 (S1) and break through 4530 (short-term resistance) with increased volume.
Stop Loss Setting:
Short stop loss above 4630 (3%), long stop loss below 4400 (3%).
Target price:
Short target 4390 (S2, potential gain 4.3%), Long target 4629 (R1, potential gain 2.8%).
Tip: The current market lacks clear trend signals, it is recommended to take light positions and strictly set stop losses!
Disclaimer: The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute investment advice.