Анализ: Нон-фарм и решение по тарифам напрямую противостоят друг другу, Венесуэла — это просто фоновый шум

Odaily Daily Planet News: According to economists’ median forecasts, the US economy is expected to have added 73,000 jobs last month, higher than 64,000 in November, while the unemployment rate is expected to decline from 4.6% to 4.5%. ADP’s private sector employment report (“mini-NFP”) will be released on Wednesday, two days ahead of government data, but is usually not considered a reliable leading indicator. Additionally, the US Supreme Court may rule on Friday—the same day as December’s non-farm payroll release—on the legality of Trump’s global tariffs, which could similarly have a certain impact on markets.

“Trading in interest rates and credit instruments depends on US growth, inflation, and the Fed’s next moves,” said Vincent Ahn, portfolio manager at Wisdom Fixed Income Management in Plano, Texas. “This is why events like Friday’s employment report matter far more to the Treasury market than Venezuela. Only when Venezuela events lead to sustained oil price volatility, which in turn affects gas prices and inflation, will it enter market focus, and currently the market is not seeing this situation.”

In other words, “Venezuela failed to impact the bond market because it failed to change the inflation narrative,” Vincent added in an email to MarketWatch. (Jinshi)