In 2025, the crypto market entered an era of precise targeting driven by data. The traditionally relied-upon Halving cycles and TVL chart frameworks have been reshaped. Data shows that CEX spot trading volume has decreased by 27.7%, while DEX activity has risen by 25.3%, with over 240,000 crypto millionaires worldwide. With billions of dollars flooding into digital treasuries and institutions, the focus of the market is no longer on the flow of capital, but rather on which on-chain metrics can most reliably reveal the direction of the market's next phase. The Dune Analytics team believes that stablecoin supply is the most predictive single indicator for 2026.
Market Structural Shift: CEX Liquidity Migrates to DEX
The most significant structural change in 2025 is the long-term migration of liquidity from centralized platforms (CEX) to decentralized platforms (DEX).
Liquidity Differentiation: CEX deposits average about $150 billion per month, while DEX volume averages about $500 billion per month, peaking at $857 billion in July. This gap signifies a structural rather than temporary shift.
Data Comparison: Hildobby's panel shows that since November 2023, DEX volume has begun to surpass CEX. In 2025, the on-chain spot trading volume reached a monthly peak of $857 billion, while CEX deposits peaked at around $250 billion.
Analyst's Opinion: Analysts believe that this divergence reflects a long-term trend, with liquidity rebalancing towards permissionless venues, thanks to improvements in user interfaces and advancements in institutional-grade custody tools.
Betting on the Future: Gate's Web3 Ecosystem Blueprint
In the year 2025, which is experiencing profound transformation in the crypto assets market, Gate.io is actively embracing an industry-wide structural change through its “All in Web3” strategy: market liquidity and pricing power are migrating from centralized exchanges (CEX) to decentralized exchanges (DEX).
In the context of the DEX quarterly spot trading volume historically surpassing 1.4 trillion USD and accounting for 17.7% of the centralized exchange volume for the first time, Gate's response is to build a complete Web3 ecological closed loop. Its core strategy consists of three main components:
Gate Layer: As a cornerstone of the ecosystem, this Layer 2 network based on the OP Stack provides a processing capacity of over 5,700 transactions per second with a per-transaction cost as low as $0.00003, laying the technological foundation for high-performance DEX applications.
Gate Perp DEX: This is Gate's core product for responding to trends. As a decentralized perpetual contract exchange deployed on Gate Layer, it offers up to 125 times leverage trading and aims to combine the trading experience of centralized exchanges with the trust advantages of blockchain through an order book model and on-chain transparency mechanisms.
Gate Fun: As an on-chain asset issuance platform, it ensures that the tokens are created on-chain right from their inception, providing native asset sources for DEX.
Follow the Trend: From Pricing Power to Ecological Synergy
Gate's strategic deployment accurately responds to fundamental changes in the market. Industry analysis points out that the price discovery function is shifting from CEX to DEX, and centralized platforms have, in some cases, even “become exit liquidity channels.” This means that the value of new assets is determined on-chain first, rather than on traditional centralized exchanges.
The ecological synergy of Gate is designed for this purpose. A project can transparently launch on Gate Fun, and its tokens can then seamlessly enter Gate Perp DEX for trading, achieving a complete on-chain closed loop from issuance to trading. This allows Gate to capture the value of the entire process from asset birth to circulation, no longer limited to the traditional listing model.
Strategic Significance: Reshaping the Exchange Landscape
Gate's comprehensive layout marks a shift where leading exchanges no longer view DEX as merely a supplementary business, but rather as a core pillar of future competition. By bringing 40 million global users and foundational liquidity into its own on-chain ecosystem, Gate not only aligns with the liquidity migration trend between DEX and CEX but also aims to build a future exchange paradigm with strong network effects.
This strategy clearly indicates that the competition among exchanges in the future will go beyond single trading services and upgrade to a comprehensive contest of the entire on-chain ecosystem in terms of performance, assets, and user experience.
Stablecoin: Structural Adoption Deepening and “Velocity of Circulation” Indicator
Stablecoins continue to expand strongly in 2025, with total supply rising from approximately $200 billion to $305 billion, reflecting their deepening on-chain utility.
Amazing Rise: The Dune–Artemis report indicates that by February, the total supply of stablecoins has increased by 63%, reaching $225 billion, processing $35 trillion in transfers.
Emerging Giants: The supply of USDC has doubled to approximately $80 billion; Ethena's USDe has risen from about $2.4 billion to $14.8 billion; while the recently launched Plasma has already reached $8 billion, ranking fifth in the on-chain stablecoin supply list. This rise is primarily driven by structural demands such as treasury, DeFi lending, and RWA settlement, rather than speculation.
2026 Key Indicators: Dune analysts recommend using “stablecoin velocity” as the clearest indicator for 2026. Velocity is the ratio of volume to market capitalization, which effectively distinguishes between active use and hoarding behavior.
Tokenization of RWA: Government Bonds as the Pillar of Institutional Liquidity
Tokenization of real-world assets (RWA) solidified its position in 2025, becoming an essential tool for institutions seeking higher returns and diversification.
Explosive Growth: A report from Dune–RWA.xyz found that tokenized assets have grown 224% year-to-date, driven by U.S. Treasury and bond products. BlackRock's BUIDL fund has reached $2.2 billion.
Key Data: The TVL of U.S. Treasury bonds has risen 224% year-on-year, bond growth is 171%, and private credit has increased 61% to 15.9 billion dollars this year to date.
Analyst's View: Analysts believe that RWA is becoming a pillar of institutional liquidity and serves as a bridge connecting DeFi and traditional markets. Year-on-year TVL rise and number of independent holders are the best indicators of institutional attractiveness.
Perp DEX and Emerging Risk Thresholds
The annual volume of decentralized perpetual contracts has exceeded 2.6 trillion USD.
Volume Surge: Bitwise states that if DEX continues to capture market share, the trading volume could reach $20 trillion to $30 trillion in the next five years.
Market Concentration: Hyperliquid once accounted for 70% of the volume and 90% of the Open Interest, and now still maintains 30% of the total volume and 50% of the Open Interest. Emerging competitors like Aster (on BNB Chain) and Variational (on Arbitrum) are emerging through yield-linked and peer-to-peer derivatives.
Risk Warning: The ratio of open contracts to total decentralized trading volume may become an early warning threshold for systemic risk in 2026.
ETF Fund Flows and On-chain Response Lag
Although ETF fund inflows do not directly appear on-chain, their correlation with stablecoin flows, Mempool congestion, and surging Gas fees is strengthening, revealing a near real-time liquidity response.
ETF Holdings: Bitcoin ETF holds 1.325 million BTC (approximately 6.65% of total supply), valued at $149.8 billion. Since its launch, there has been a net inflow of 706,000 BTC. Led by IBIT (accounting for 28.7% of AUM), the annualized absorption rate of Bitcoin is approximately 3.5%.
Ethereum ETF: The Ethereum ETF holds 6.75 million ETH (approximately 5.44% of the supply), valued at 29.2 billion USD, with an annualized growth of 4.1%.
On-chain Reaction: The expansion of stablecoins remains the fastest on-chain reaction, typically occurring within a few hours after changes in ETF fund flows. Dune's ETF dashboard confirms this, positioning stablecoin supply as the clearest indicator of new inflows.
Growth of Meme Coins, NFTs, and Applications of DePIN/DeSci
Meme Coin Dilemma: Meme coins continue to dominate user onboarding in 2025, especially on the Solana platform. Although platforms like Pump.fun maintain around 79,600 daily active users (DAU) and a daily trading volume of $63 million, the token-level survival rate is close to zero (0.7%-0.8%). Meme coins remain a powerful onboarding funnel, but rarely evolve into a sustainable ecosystem.
NFT New User Influx: Despite the lackluster volume, NFTs remain a gateway for new users. Unique buyers surged from approximately 49 million in 2024 to over 173 million in the first ten months of 2025.
Functional Expansion of DePIN/DeSci: The fields of DePIN (Decentralized Physical Infrastructure Network) and DeSci (Decentralized Science) are quietly expanding, driven by fundamentals rather than speculation. On Solana's DePIN alone, the number of active nodes has reached 238,000, generating nearly $6 million in on-chain revenue. NodeOps states that the industry is “maturing.”
The Most Predictive Indicator for 2026: Stablecoin Supply
As the total market capitalization of crypto assets surpasses $3.5 trillion, Bitcoin's dominance has risen to over 62%, and the supply of stablecoins has become the most consistent leading indicator.
Predictive Advantage: Dune experts summarize that if you only track one on-chain metric in 2026, it should be stablecoin supply. It is the clearest representation of new capital.
High Correlation: The correlation between stablecoin rise and Bitcoin movement is about 0.87, and it typically leads the rebound of bull markets. The stablecoin balance on exchanges represents the “dry powder” for the next wave of the market.
Conclusion
Dune's analysis for 2025 depicts a mature market based on data accuracy. Stablecoins solidify their position as a liquidity pillar, RWA institutionalizes returns, and DePIN/DeSci marks functional expansion. Looking ahead to 2026, on-chain intelligence is no longer supplemental but dominant. For investors, the advantage lies in interpreting core signals like stablecoin supply faster and clearer than the masses, to capture the next wave in the market.
This article is for informational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice. The crypto market is highly volatile, and investors should make decisions with caution.
