Gate on-chain observation ( on October 30, ): SpaceX transfers Bitcoin again; Abraxas Capital increases short order to $738 million.

After the Fed lowered interest rates by 25 basis points as expected but released hawkish signals of “uncertainty about a December rate cut,” the crypto assets market experienced significant fluctuations. On-chain data shows that institutional-level Bull vs Bear Battle further escalated, with Abraxas Capital increasing its short position from $690 million to $738 million, adding $48 million in short exposure in a single day. Meanwhile, the “100% win rate Whale” increased its position against the market pullback, with total position value exceeding $320 million, and placed limit long orders for 15,000 ETH at $3,800 waiting to be filled. The Whale camp shows clear operational differentiation driven by macro events, and market volatility is expected to remain high.

1. BTC Market Dynamics and Analysis

Bull vs Bear Battle strategies have significantly diverged, and institutional competition has intensified

The Bitcoin market shows a complex bull vs bear battle following the Fed's decision, with major whales adopting completely different strategies based on their assessment of the macro environment:

· “100% Win Rate Whale” Goes Against the Trend to Increase Position: This address opened a BTC long order during the market pullback yesterday at 0:00, and increased the position against the trend, with an average entry price of $111,000, currently holding a nominal value of $113 million. It currently holds a BTC long order with 13x leverage, valued at approximately $114 million, with an opening price of $110,123.0, and a floating profit of $1.46 million, demonstrating strong confidence in the future market.

· Abraxas Capital firmly shorts: The hedge fund's two addresses have simultaneously increased their short positions in BTC, SOL, and ETH since 0:00 today, with the total nominal value of the positions rising from $690 million yesterday afternoon to $738 million. This marks the third consecutive day that the fund has significantly increased its short positions, reflecting its negative interpretation of the Fed's hawkish stance on interest rate cuts.

· “Calm Opening King” short positions profit: This trader has overall turned from loss to profit, with a fluctuation return rate of 40% on BTC short positions, an average position price of $112,200, and a total nominal value of holdings reaching $78.6 million. Their precise timing ability has been validated once again.

Long-term holder behavior draws attention

· Ancient whales continue to reduce their holdings: Bitcoin OG whale Owen Gunden has deposited a total of 2587.6 BTC into CEX over the past 10 days, worth 290 million USD. The continuous reduction by such long-term holders often indicates the formation of a phase top in the market.

· SpaceX transfers Bitcoin again: SpaceX has transferred 281 BTC (approximately 31.28 million USD) to a new wallet, possibly for custody purposes. In the past 10 days, SpaceX has moved its Bitcoin holdings three times, drawing market attention to the flow of institutional funds.

· Public companies' position adjustment: After the Fed's decision, many public companies may reassess their Bitcoin holding strategies, and the movement of institutional funds will become an important factor affecting the market.

New funds are actively entering the market

· High win rate traders are boldly going long: Trader 0xd260 has completed 43 trades on Hyperliquid, with a win rate of 83.72%, accumulating profits of over 2.6 million USD, and is currently opening a 40x leveraged long position on 62 BTC (approximately 6.88 million USD). The active participation of such high win rate traders indicates that market opportunities still exist.

· New account large position: Trader 0x9553 opened their first position on Hyperliquid: 40x leverage long order 179.59 coins BTC (approximately 19.94 million USD). Large positions from new accounts often indicate the entry of new funds.

2. ETH Market Dynamics and Analysis

Whale operations show clear differentiation, Ethereum faces directional choice

The Ethereum market presents a complex Bull vs Bear Battle after the Fed's decision, with multiple key data points indicating a growing divergence in the market:

· “100% Win Rate Whale” Low Price Limit Order: This whale has placed a limit long order of 15,000 ETH at $3,800, waiting for execution, valued at $57 million. It currently holds a 10x leveraged long order of ETH, valued at approximately $95 million, with an opening price of $3,873.66, showing a floating profit of $1.6 million, indicating optimism about Ethereum's future market.

· “Firmly bullish on ETH” Whale holds long-term: This Whale bought the dip after the flash crash on 1011, holding the long order for over 19 days, with a position size of 55 million USD and an unrealized profit exceeding 300%. There were no positions closed for profit-taking yesterday, maintaining a positive outlook. Such long-term holding Whales provide stable bullish strength to the market.

· “100% Win Rate Opponent” short positions profit: A new address Whale (0x218) continued to increase the position of ETH short orders yesterday, and the current floating return rate has reached 60%, with an average position price of 4128 dollars and a nominal value of the position of approximately 28 million dollars. The addition of new shorts indicates an increasing divergence in the market.

The capital flow presents complex signals

· Whale Loss Dump: A certain whale transferred 10,000 ETH into a CEX, valued at 39.11 million USD. This whale accumulated these 10,000 ETH 2 months ago, when they were worth 46.63 million USD, resulting in a loss of 7.52 million USD. Such loss dumps may indicate stop-loss behaviors from some investors.

· Large amounts of ETH flowing out of exchanges: In the past 48 hours, approximately 200,000 Ethereum worth $780 million have been withdrawn from CEX. This large-scale off-chain accumulation is usually seen as a bullish signal, contrasting with the bearish atmosphere in the derivatives market.

· The ancient Whale has sold again: After a year, the “Ancient Whale of 310,000 ETH ICO” has once again deposited 2,000 ETH into CEX, valued at 7.92 million USD, with a return on investment exceeding 12,778 times if sold. Currently, this Whale still holds 15,000 ETH, with a total value of 58.73 million USD, at a cost of 0.31 USD.

Institutional funds continue to layout

· Bitmine level accumulation continues: Two newly created addresses possibly belonging to the first Ethereum holding institution Bitmine have just received 33,948 ETH from FalconX, worth $135 million. Despite increased market fluctuations, institutional-level funds continue to accumulate Ethereum.

· The Radiant Capital hacker strikes again: The hacker, who has repeatedly profited from fluctuations in ETH, purchased 1,482 ETH for 5.836 million DAI at a price of $3,938 1 hour ago. The hacker's historical performance has been outstanding, and their movements are worth paying attention to.

3. Other Altcoin Market Dynamics and Analysis

Public Chain Ecology: Intense Bull vs Bear Battle in SOL

Solana has become a battleground for intense competition between bulls and bears, with clear differentiation in whale operations:

· “100% win rate Whale” heavily invests in SOL: This Whale holds a SOL 10x leverage long order worth approximately $110 million, with an opening price of $198.4364. Currently, it faces a floating loss of $1.4 million. Despite the floating loss, their commitment to holding reflects confidence in SOL's future performance.

· Abraxas Capital goes fully short: The hedge fund is increasing its short positions on BTC and ETH while simultaneously increasing the position on SOL short orders, forming a comprehensive short layout. Its $738 million total short position includes a significant proportion of SOL shorts.

· New funds are diversifying their investments: a newly created wallet has purchased TRUMP spot on the Solana network while going long on TRUMP on Hyperliquid, currently showing an unrealized profit of over $1.5 million. The wallet has also taken long positions on SOL, ETH, and BTC, indicating optimism about the overall market.

Meme Coin and Specific Projects: Capital Rotation Accelerates

· Huang Licheng turned to PUMP: “Ma Ji” closed part of the HYPE long order and went long on PUMP with 10x leverage. As of the time of writing, he holds ETH, HYPE, and PUMP long orders, with a total position value of 24.31 million USD. Such operations indicate a rapid rotation of funds within the Meme coin sector.

· “Suspected HYPE Listing Insider” Whale Expands Layout: This whale rolled in to increase the position of XPL and the Hyperliquid ecosystem meme coin PURR during the market pullback at 0:00 today, with a total nominal value of holdings reaching 59.48 million USD. Its early precise layout in HYPE has attracted market attention.

· ASTER attracts funding attention: A newly created wallet spent 3.2 million USDT to purchase 2.94 million ASTER at a price of 1.09 dollars each. The wallet currently still holds 2 million USDT and may continue to increase the position, indicating optimism towards specific small-cap projects.

The supply of stablecoins continues to increase

· Large-scale minting of USDC: USDC Treasury has minted nearly 600 million USDC on the Solana and Ethereum chains. The significant increase in stablecoin supply provides ample liquidity support for the market.

4. Market Overview and Trend Analysis

Overview: The interplay of macro drivers and technical market dynamics

The current market is in an environment where macro and technical aspects are intricately intertwined, with key characteristics including:

· Fed policy dominates market sentiment: Although the interest rate was cut by 25 basis points as expected, Powell's hawkish remarks about the “uncertainty of a rate cut in December” have led to a repricing in the market. Traditional financial markets are experiencing increased Fluctuation, and the crypto assets market is also shaking.

· The institutional Bull vs Bear Battle continues to escalate: Abraxas Capital's $738 million short positions and the “100% win rate Whale” $320 million long positions represent a new phase in the Bull vs Bear battle, with both sides strengthening their defenses at key positions.

· The capital flow presents contradictory signals: on one hand, a large amount of ETH is flowing out of exchanges, indicating accumulation signs; on the other hand, whales are selling at a loss, showing that some investors' confidence is wavering. This kind of contradictory signal usually appears during market turning points.

Trend Analysis: Key Position Competition Determines Short-term Direction

Based on on-chain data and the macro environment, the market trend for the next 1-3 trading days is projected as follows:

· Bitcoin Bull vs Bear Battle: The battle for BTC at the $112,000 position is crucial; if it fails to hold, it may drop to the $108,000 to $110,000 range; if it holds, it may test the resistance at $115,000 to $118,000 again.

· Key support for Ethereum: ETH needs to hold the $3850 support level. If it drops below, it may test the range of $3700 to $3800. It is crucial to pay attention to the transaction situation of the “100% win rate Whale” with 15,000 ETH limit long orders at $3800.

· The fluctuation risk of altcoins: Mainstream altcoins like SOL may face greater fluctuations, requiring close attention to the closing actions of the “100% win rate Whale” $110 million SOL long order. The capital rotation in the Meme coin sector is accelerating, increasing the difficulty of operations.

· Risk Warning: Need to guard against the ongoing impact of the Fed's hawkish stance, as well as the potential short covering rally triggered by Abraxas Capital's $738 million short positions being closed. At the same time, pay attention to the transmission effect of U.S. stock performance on the crypto assets market.

V. Conclusion

When Abraxas Capital increased its short positions to $738 million, and the '100% win rate Whale' placed a limit long order of $57 million at $3800, and when the ancient Whale sold again after a year, the market painted a complex picture of the Bull vs Bear Battle with the most authentic financial language. The Fed's hawkish rate cuts added new variables to this battle, and institutional investors are adjusting their position layouts based on different interpretations of the macro environment.

The complexity of the market lies in the fact that the same information is often interpreted as completely opposite signals by different participants. While some investors panic sell due to the Fed's hawkish statements, others see an opportunity to buy on dips; when long-term holders choose to take profits, new funds are entering the market in large amounts. From Abraxas Capital's firm short positions to the counter-trend increase of the “100% winning rate Whale”, from the ancient Whale's re-selling to the continuous accumulation of institutional funds, market participants are engaging in fierce ideological clashes with real money. In this uncertain environment, ordinary investors may need to focus more on risk management rather than blindly following any side's views. After all, in this increasingly volatile market, those who can survive long-term are not necessarily the analysts who make the most accurate predictions, but rather the practitioners with the strictest risk control.