Ethereum fall 7%: Increased pressure to cut losses raises the risk of a strong sell-off

Ethereum (ETH) plummet 7% in the last 24 hours, leading to a wave of take profit and realizing losses more severely, in the context of prices approaching the important cost zone of the whales.

The increase in recorded losses may trigger a deep decline of ETH

Ethereum investors continue to maintain a selling trend this week, as take profit activities and loss recognition have both increased amidst the backdrop of weak ETH prices due to pressure from macroeconomic factors.

According to data from the analysis platform Santiment, since Sunday, investors have taken profit of over 500 million USD and recorded an additional loss of about 100 million USD.

Actual profit/loss of the network | Source: SantimentIn prolonged bear market cycles, the recorded loss index is often a key measure closely monitored by investors. Although the current level of losses is only moderate, history shows that an increase in this index often signals strong distribution pressure and may lead to deeper declines.

In fact, ETH once fluctuated in the zone of 3,200–3,500 USD at the end of January before the strong surge of this index caused the price to plummet more than 50% in just the following three months. With the macro context still full of uncertainties, the continued weakness in price triggering panic sentiment is not too surprising.

Currently, ETH is approaching the average cost price – or actual price – of the group of whales holding 10,000–100,000 ETH, around the zone of 2,900 USD. A drop in price below this threshold often triggers strong liquidation sell-offs from large investors.

The average cost price of each holder group | Source: CryptoQuant It is noteworthy that this whale group has played a “support” role for the market over the past month, quietly accumulating about 890,000 ETH. However, the price drop could become more severe if their buying power weakens.

Conversely, the selling pressure in the last two weeks mainly came from retail investors and wallet addresses holding tokens for less than 90 days.

On the derivatives market, Coinglass data shows that the open interest (OI) remains low and has not been able to regain the 12 million ETH mark since the margin call on October 10. Open interest represents the total value of derivatives contracts that have not been settled.

In another development, a large Ethereum whale has increased its use of leverage to accumulate ETH, gathering around $1.3 billion since November 4.

Ethereum Price Prediction: ETH Weakens Below the 200-Day EMA, Heading Towards Support at 3,100 USD

Ethereum witnessed $206.5 million in futures positions being liquidated in just 24 hours, of which $155.3 million came from Long orders, according to data from Coinglass.

Currently, ETH is gradually retreating to the support zone of 3,100 USD, after being rejected for two consecutive sessions at the 200-day EMA line. If it cannot bounce back from this level, the largest altcoin in the market risks sliding deep into the key support zone of 2,850 USD.

ETH/USDT Daily Chart | Source: TradingViewOn the contrary, to strengthen the recovery opportunity, ETH needs to break above the 200-day EMA – a determining factor for the reversal signal.

Technical signals continue to lean towards a bearish trend: RSI remains below the neutral threshold and is sliding down, while the Stochastic Oscillator approaches the zone of oversold, indicating that selling pressure still prevails.

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