Arthur Hayes' investment portfolio experiences a big dump of 30%: Is the alts cycle peaking?

Arthur Hayes' crypto portfolio shrank by over 30% in November 2025, with a total value dropping from $63 million to $42.2 million. On-chain data shows that Hayes dumped approximately $5 million worth of mainstream tokens such as ETH, ENA, ETHFI, LDO, AAVE, and UNI on November 18, some of which were liquidated at a loss.

This move contrasts sharply with its recent publicly bullish stance, raising concerns in the market about the peak of the altcoin cycle. Analysts point out that institutional investors may be rotating from small and mid-cap Tokens to more liquid Ethereum and stablecoins, with the current market volatility index rising to a three-month high.

Arthur Hayes Portfolio Structure Changes and On-Chain Transaction Tracking

According to monitoring by Arkham Intelligence, Arthur Hayes's crypto portfolio underwent significant adjustments in November. As of November 19, his holdings were primarily concentrated in Ethereum ecosystem assets: 5,731 ETH (approximately 18.03 million USD), 3,119 EETH (approximately 9.8 million USD), and 1,167 WEETH (approximately 4 million USD), while also holding 7.9 million USD in USDC stablecoins.

Notably, on November 18, he executed multiple large sell transactions in succession: first selling 520 ETH for $1.66 million, then dumping 2.62 million ENA for $733,000, and liquidating 132,700 ETHFI for $124,000. Two hours later, he acted again, selling 260 ETH for $820,000, disposing of 2.4 million ENA for $651,000, while also clearing his holdings of LDO ($480,000), AAVE ($289,000), and UNI ($209,000). All these transactions were completed through mainstream CEX, and some tokens were sold below the average holding cost.

Hayes Daily Dumping Key Data

• Total ETH Sold: 780 coins (worth 2.48 million USD)
• ENA dumping quantity: 5.02 million coins (worth 1.384 million USD)
• Types of Settlement Tokens: 6 mainstream altcoins
• Total Daily Dumping Amount: 5 million USD
• Stablecoin ratio increased: from 12% to 19%

Market Sentiment Transmission and Altcoin Liquidity Analysis

Arthur Hayes' centralized selling behavior has triggered a chain reaction in the crypto community. Monitoring shows that within 6 hours after his trading address was flagged, related tokens saw a cumulative $42 million in follow-up selling. Among them, ENA experienced the most significant decline, dropping 14.2% in 24 hours, while UNI and LDO fell by 8.7% and 7.3%, respectively. In terms of market maker response, the buy-sell spread for the ENA/USDT trading pair on major CEXs widened to 0.3%, three times higher than usual, indicating that liquidity is deteriorating. The derivatives market was also affected, with ETHFI perpetual contract funding rates turning negative (-0.02%), and open interest decreasing by 22%, suggesting that leveraged longs are accelerating their exit. This sentiment contagion even extended to the Bitcoin market, with BTC's dominance rising from 54.3% to 55.1% within 48 hours, indicating a clear contraction in risk appetite.

Cycle Positioning Theory and Institutional Behavior Decoding

Multiple analysts have given completely different interpretations of Hayes's actions. Orbion believes this is a typical signal of “smart money exiting early,” pointing out that the current cycle has included a complete rebound of 665% for Bitcoin since its low point in January 2023. Their research shows that the accelerated market after the approval of ETFs has not materialized, the activity of meme coins has waned, and AI concept tokens along with Layer2 Tokens have remained weak, all of which align with the characteristics of the late stage of historical cycles.

However, Pentoshi raised opposing views, arguing that this is merely a portfolio rebalancing operation: Hayes converted higher-risk small and mid-cap tokens into stablecoins while maintaining a core position of 18 million USD in Ethereum, possibly preparing for participation in the upcoming Ethereum ecosystem upgrade. Glassnode data supports this judgment, showing that since November, the number of addresses holding more than 1000 ETH has increased by 3.2%, while altcoin whale addresses have generally reduced their holdings by 5% - 15%.

Comparison of Historical Patterns and Similarities and Differences with the Current Market

Comparing the behavior of whales during historical cycles reveals interesting patterns. At the peak of the cycle in November 2021, the top 50 crypto addresses also showed concentrated reductions in holdings, but at that time, the main outflow was towards Bitcoin (accounting for 63%). In contrast, this time Hayes chose to increase holdings in stablecoins. Another key difference lies in the derivatives structure: during the liquidation period in 2021, the funding rate for perpetual contracts remained positive, whereas it has now turned negative, indicating a more pessimistic market sentiment.

From a technical indicator perspective, the altcoin season (ALTSEASONS) index is currently in the “extreme greed” range (92/100), and historically, the average correction magnitude within 30 days after this index exceeds 90 is 28%. However, positive signals still exist: the amount of ETH staked on the Ethereum network has surpassed 40 million coins, setting a new historical high, and the total locked value in Layer 2 remains stable at 35 billion dollars, indicating that the fundamental ecology has not undergone fundamental deterioration.

Risk Management Strategies for Altcoins and Recommendations for Holdings Adjustment

In response to the changes in positions of institutional investors, retail investors should consider the following strategies. For high-risk altcoin holdings, it is recommended to set a dynamic profit-taking line: reduce holdings by 30% when the Token retracts more than 25% from the cycle high, and continue to reduce by 50% when it retracts 40%. In terms of position allocation, you can refer to the “core-satellite” structure: allocate 60% of funds to Bitcoin and Ethereum, 30% to the top ten market cap Tokens, and the remaining 10% for emerging sectors. Derivative protection is also essential, and it is recommended to purchase three-month Bitcoin put options with a strike price set 20% below the current price, costing about 3% - 5% of the holdings' value. For long-term investors, the current market cap ratio of altcoins to Bitcoin has fallen back to the level of October 2023, which may be the right time for dollar-cost averaging.

When the leading figures in the crypto market start to shift, followers face not only simple buy and sell decisions but also a profound understanding of the nature of cycles. Arthur Hayes' portfolio changes serve as a mirror, reflecting both the current market's liquidity anxiety and the defensive posture of institutional investors amid uncertainty. History tells us that the darkest moments of dumping often give birth to the dawn of a new cycle, but only those who retain enough ammunition can wait for the dawn to arrive.