Gate Daily (November 21): Non-farm payroll report unexpectedly "blows up" causing turmoil; 14-year Bitcoin whale closes all positions worth 1.3 billion USD.

Bitcoin (BTC) crashed with a big dump, temporarily reported around $87,340 on November 21. The unexpected rebound in the U.S. non-farm payroll report has complicated the Federal Reserve's (FED) interest rate cut outlook for December. The report shows that during Paul Atkins' tenure as SEC chairman, the regulatory body's enforcement actions decreased by 30%. 14-year whales closed all positions, dumping $1.3 billion worth of Bitcoin.

Macro Events & Coin Circle Hot Spots

1. According to the latest report from Cornerstone Research, since Paul Atkins took office as chairman, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has adopted a noticeably more restrained approach, with the total number of enforcement actions expected to decrease by about 30% by fiscal year 2025. The report points out that the overall decline in enforcement activity “is consistent with the general pattern of other fiscal years during SEC leadership changes.” Regulatory actions involving cryptocurrency companies have also decreased. Prior to this, the SEC revoked several investigations and lawsuits after Gary Gensler's departure, a trend that was also anticipated. The report specifically mentioned the SEC's lawsuit against the largest cryptocurrency exchange in the U.S., which was dismissed in February.

2. The unexpected rebound in the U.S. labor market will complicate the Federal Reserve's decision on whether to cut interest rates next month. On November 20, according to the highly anticipated report released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the U.S. economy added a significantly higher number of jobs in September than expected. Non-farm payrolls increased by 119,000 this month, reversing the loss of 4,000 jobs recorded after the downward revision in August, far exceeding the Dow Jones market consensus expectation of 50,000 new jobs in September. Additionally, July's job additions were revised down to 72,000, a decrease of 7,000 from the previously reported figure.

3. According to Arkham Intelligence, the whale Owen Gunden, who first purchased Bitcoin in 2011, has sold all 11,000 Bitcoins, with a total value of 1.3 billion USD. This early arbitrage trader, who was once the third richest cryptocurrency billionaire in the world, has transferred over 344 million USD since the end of October last year, ultimately closing all positions.

News Dynamics

1. MOVE repurchased tokens continue to flow back, Movement then transfers 50 million tokens into the exchange.

2. OpenAI has launched the ChatGPT group chat feature to users worldwide.

3. Director of the Trading and Markets Division of the U.S. SEC: The “trustless” mechanism of digital assets needs to operate in a “trust-based” market.

4. Bitmine purchased an additional 17,242 ETH, worth approximately 49.07 million USD.

5. Kalshi completes $1 billion financing at a valuation of $11 billion, led by Sequoia and CapitalG.

6. The U.S. government transfers seized assets from the FTX exchange hacking case to a new wallet address.

7. Open Campus partners with Animoca Brands to promote a $50 million EDU token strategy.

Market Trend

1. Latest news on Bitcoin: $BTC crashed with a big dump, currently reported at around 87,340 USD, with 404 million USD liquidated in the past 24 hours, mainly from long positions;

2. On November 21, the US stock market sharply reversed from early gains, as strong earnings from AI chip giant NVIDIA failed to alleviate investors' concerns over high valuations, and US employment data added to the uncertainty in the labor market. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 386.51 points, or 0.84%, to 45,752.26 points; the S&P 500 index dropped by 103.40 points, or 1.56%, to 6,538.76 points; and the Nasdaq Composite Index decreased by 486.18 points, or 2.15%, to 22,078.05 points. The Nasdaq index recorded its lowest closing since September 11, while the S&P 500 index hit its lowest close since September 10. Meanwhile, Wall Street's fear gauge, the CBOE Volatility Index, reached its highest level since April 24.

(Source: Gate)

3. In the Gate BTC/USDT liquidation map, based on the current 87,247.50 USDT, if it falls to around 85,767 USD, the total liquidation amount of long positions exceeds 263 million USD; if it rises to around 89,567 USD, the total liquidation amount of short positions exceeds 551 million USD. The liquidation amount for shorts is significantly higher than for longs, suggesting a reasonable control of leverage to avoid triggering large-scale liquidations during market fluctuations.

(Source: Coinglass)

4. In the past 24 hours, BTC spot inflow was 4.07 billion USD, outflow was 4.75 billion USD, with a net outflow of 680 million USD.

(Source: Coinglass)

5. In the past 24 hours, contracts such as $TNSR, $ZEC, $GRASS, $PUMP, and $BEAT have seen a net outflow, indicating trading opportunities.

X KOL Selected Insights

Phyrex Ni (@Phyrex_Ni): “Today's operations are indeed difficult. I was originally hoping that NVIDIA's earnings report could boost investor sentiment, after all, the AI bubble doesn't seem so easy to burst. It did give a short-term boost, but after the US stock market opened, NVIDIA started to fall. At 11:40 PM, the entire US stock market showed a decline. Not only did it erase the nearly 2.5% rise from the NASDAQ's opening, but it also ended up falling 2.3% at the close, with a nearly 5% fluctuation throughout the day, which is really rare.”

“Especially the non-farm data announced today is still quite favorable for a rate cut in December, but the market still experienced such a significant fall. Indeed, a fall without negative news is a signal that danger is beginning; it often indicates that liquidity has started to contract. The last time this situation occurred felt quite similar to early 2022. However, based on the VIX data, it still feels rather awkward. The last time this situation occurred felt quite similar to early 2022. However, based on the VIX data, it still feels pretty awkward. Currently, it still feels quite awkward; it still feels quite awkward.”

“If it continues to break upwards past 30, it means the market has entered a bearish sentiment low range. If it further breaks past 50, it is likely the bottom. However, if it still maintains around the position of 22 to 27, it only indicates that the market will continue to oscillate up and down, so being stuck in between is the most troublesome.”

Looking at the data for Bitcoin, although the price is falling, it is evident that the turnover rate is decreasing. While a single day's data cannot represent much, the turnover rate has been declining for two consecutive days, indicating that the number of panicked investors is gradually decreasing. Although it has not yet returned to normal levels, it is true that the chips under panic selling have reduced. Although the current sentiment is quite poor, it is generally expected that there will be no interest rate cuts in December. Right now, it seems we are waiting for a gradual bottoming out, and then we will see the Federal Reserve's response. Also, we will watch how Trump responds to the stock market's decline. From the URPD data, the current chip structure is relatively safe, and the support level has not collapsed.

Today's Outlook

1. UK October seasonally adjusted retail sales (month-on-month), previous value was 0.5%

2. The preliminary value of the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index for France in November is 48.8.

3. Germany's November Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index preliminary value, previous value was 49.6.

4. Eurozone November Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index preliminary value, previous value was 50.0

5. UK Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November (preliminary), previous value was 49.7

6. Canada September retail sales (month-on-month), previous value was 1.0%

7, US October Housing Starts (Annualized Monthly Rate)

8, The final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index for November in the United States, previous value was 50.3

9. ECB President Lagarde delivers a speech.

10. New York Federal Reserve President Williams delivers a speech

11. Swiss National Bank President Thomas Jordan delivered a speech.

12. The Federal Reserve (FED) Governor Barr delivered a speech.

13. The Vice Chairman of the Federal Reserve (FED), Jefferson, delivered a speech on financial stability.

14. Dallas Federal Reserve President Logan participated in a panel discussion at the “2025 Swiss Central Bank and its Observers” event.