MicroStrategy Faces Confidence Test: Nasdaq Delisting Risk, Selling Coins for Buybacks, Executives Selling Off

Author: Nancy, PANews

The crypto market is rife with uncertainty. Bitcoin’s weakness has driven the overall market downturn, accelerating the clearing of bubbles and making investors feel like they’re walking on thin ice. As one of the key crypto barometers, leading DAT (Crypto Treasury) company Strategy (MicroStrategy) is facing multiple pressures, including a significant narrowing of its mNAV premium, weakening coin accumulation efforts, senior management selling stocks, and risks of being delisted from indices. Market confidence is under severe test.

Strategy faces a trust crisis, or risk of being delisted from indices?

Currently, the DAT sector is experiencing its darkest hour. As Bitcoin prices continue to decline, premiums across many DAT companies have fallen sharply, stock prices remain under pressure, accumulation activities slow or even halt, and business models are undergoing survival tests. Strategy has not been spared, falling into a trust crisis.

mNAV (Market Net Asset Value) is an important indicator of market sentiment. Recently, Strategy’s mNAV premium has rapidly contracted, approaching a critical threshold. According to StrategyTracker data, as of November 21, Strategy’s mNAV was 1.2, after previously dropping below 1, compared to a historical high of 2.66, a decline of approximately 54.9%. As the largest and most influential DAT company, the failure of Strategy’s treasury premium has triggered market panic. The reason behind this is that the decline in mNAV weakens its financing ability, forcing the company to issue shares to dilute existing shareholders, putting pressure on the stock price, which further lowers the mNAV, creating a vicious cycle.

However, Greg Cipolaro, Global Head of Research at NYDIG, points out that mNAV as an indicator for evaluating DAT companies has limitations and should perhaps be removed from industry reports. He believes mNAV can be misleading because it does not consider the company’s operational business or other potential assets and liabilities, and is often based on assumptions about circulating shares, not covering unconverted convertible debt.

Poor stock performance also raises market concerns. According to StrategyTracker, as of November 21, Strategy’s total market value of MSTR stock is about $50.9 billion, which is below the total market value of nearly 650,000 Bitcoin holdings (average cost basis of $74,433) valued at $66.87 billion. This indicates the stock is trading at a “negative premium.” Since the start of this year, MSTR’s stock has declined by 40.9%.

This situation has sparked worries about potential delisting from indices like the NASDAQ 100 and MSCI USA. JPMorgan forecasts that if MSCI, a global financial index provider, removes Strategy from its stock index, related fund outflows could reach as high as $2.8 billion; if other exchanges and index providers follow suit, the total outflow could be as much as $11.6 billion. Currently, MSCI is evaluating a proposal to exclude companies whose main business is holding Bitcoin or other crypto assets, with those assets accounting for over 50% of their balance sheets, and will make a final decision by January 15, 2026.

However, the risk of Strategy being delisted at this moment remains relatively low. For example, the Nasdaq 100 index conducts a market cap review each year on the second Friday of December. The top 100 companies are retained, companies ranked 101–125 need to have been in the top 100 the previous year to remain, and those beyond 125 are unconditionally removed. Strategy is still within the safe zone, ranking in the Top 100 by market cap, and recent financial reports show solid fundamentals. Moreover, several institutional investors, including the Arizona State Retirement System, Renaissance Technologies, Florida State Pension Fund, Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, Swedish bank Swedbank, and Swiss National Bank, disclosed holdings of MSTR stock in their Q3 reports, which also supports market confidence to some extent.

Recently, Strategy’s accumulation pace has notably slowed, which the market interprets as a lack of “ammunition,” especially since Q3 financials show only $54.3 million in cash and cash equivalents. Since November, Strategy has accumulated a total of 9,062 Bitcoin, far less than the 79,000 Bitcoin accumulated in the same period last year, partly due to Bitcoin’s rising price. Most of the recent acquisitions came from the latest purchase of 8,178 BTC last week, with other transactions involving several hundred Bitcoins.

To raise funds, Strategy has started seeking international market financing and launched new financing instruments—perpetual preferred shares (which pay high dividends of 8-10%). Recently, the company issued its first euro-denominated perpetual preferred stock, STRE, raising approximately $710 million to support its strategic layout and Bitcoin reserve plans. Notably, the company currently has six convertible bonds outstanding, with maturities between September 2027 and June 2032.

Additionally, internal executive movements have garnered market attention. Strategy disclosed in its financial report that Vice President Shao Weiming will resign by December 31, 2025. Since September this year, he has sold MSTR stocks worth $19.69 million through five transactions. However, such sales follow pre-arranged 10b5-1 trading plans. Under SEC rules, 10b5-1 plans allow insiders to trade stocks according to predetermined rules (specifying quantity, price, or schedule), reducing insider trading legal risks.

Multiple analyses suggest that debt risk is exaggerated, and high-premium investors are under significant pressure

In face of the crypto market’s sluggish sentiment and multiple concerns about DAT business models, Strategy founder Michael Saylor reiterated the “HODL” philosophy, expressing optimism about recent Bitcoin price declines, maintaining a bullish outlook, and even emphasizing that unless Bitcoin falls below $10,000, Strategy’s holdings will not be sold, aiming to boost market confidence.

Meanwhile, various market analyses have been offered from different perspectives. Matrixport pointed out that Strategy remains one of the most representative beneficiaries of this Bitcoin bull run. Previously, there were concerns about whether the company might be forced to sell Bitcoin to repay debt. Based on current asset-liability structures and debt maturity profiles, the probability of being forced to sell Bitcoin in the short term is low and is not a primary risk at present. The biggest pressure comes from investors who bought at high premiums. Most of Strategy’s financing occurred when its stock price was near the $474 historical high, and its NAV (Net Asset Value) was at a peak. As NAV gradually declines and premiums compress, the stock price has fallen from $474 to $207, causing significant paper losses for early high-premium investors. Using Bitcoin’s recent price increase as a reference, Strategy’s current stock price has retreated from previous highs, making the valuation relatively more attractive, and the inclusion in the S&P 500 in December still holds potential.

Crypto analyst Willy Woo further analyzed Strategy’s debt risks and expressed strong skepticism about a liquidation during a bear market. In a tweet, he stated that Strategy’s debt mainly consists of convertible preferred notes, which can be repaid with cash, common stock, or a combination of both. About $1.01 billion of Strategy’s debt will mature on September 15, 2027. Woo estimates that to avoid having to sell Bitcoin to repay debt, Strategy’s stock price at that time must be above $183.19, roughly corresponding to a Bitcoin price of around $91,502.

Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, also believes that Strategy’s bankruptcy probability is extremely low. He straightforwardly said, “MSTR can only go bankrupt if an asteroid hits Earth. Saylor will never sell Bitcoin unless shareholders demand it, which he has repeatedly emphasized.”

Ki Young Ju pointed out that even selling a single Bitcoin would undermine MSTR’s core identity as a “Bitcoin treasury company,” triggering a double death spiral in both Bitcoin and MSTR stock prices. Therefore, MSTR’s shareholders not only hope Bitcoin’s value remains strong but also expect Saylor to continuously use liquidity strategies to drive both MSTR and Bitcoin prices upward.

In response to concerns about debt risks, he further explained that most of Strategy’s debt is in convertible bonds, and failing to reach the conversion price does not imply liquidation risk. It simply means the bonds must be repaid in cash, and MSTR has multiple ways to handle upcoming maturities, including refinancing, issuing new bonds, obtaining secured loans, or using operational cash flow. Non-conversion does not trigger bankruptcy; it’s just normal debt maturity. This does not imply that MSTR’s stock price will stay high forever, but the idea that they will sell Bitcoin to push up the stock or head toward bankruptcy is entirely absurd. Even if Bitcoin drops to $10,000, Strategy will not go bankrupt; at worst, it will adjust its debt structure. Additionally, MSTR can choose to collateralize Bitcoin to raise cash, which carries potential liquidation risks and would be a last resort.