HBAR drops 8%: Is more pain ahead or will the bulls make a comeback?

HBAR is trading around $0.134, down nearly 8% today, underperforming the overall cryptocurrency market, which has dropped about 6%. The overall picture remains bleak, as HBAR’s price has lost nearly half its value over the past three months.

Currently, this coin is sitting at a crucial support level that we have recently emphasized. If this level is breached, the downtrend is likely to continue. Conversely, if it holds, the next move could surprise traders who are overwhelmingly positioned in one direction.

Weakening trading strength after a fresh breakdown

The biggest concern right now stems from trading volume. The On Balance Volume (OBV) indicator clearly reflects the coin’s buying and selling trends: a rising OBV indicates strong demand, while a falling OBV signals increasing selling pressure.

Recently, HBAR broke below its descending OBV trendline, connecting lower short-term lows. This move confirms a new wave of weakness, while the longer-term picture looks even more gloomy.

BiHBAR/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingViewFrom October 10 to November 21, HBAR’s price consistently formed higher lows, but OBV registered lower lows. When price rises while volume declines, this signals that the market’s real strength is weakening beneath the surface.

Until OBV recovers above the broken trendline, the market is unlikely to have enough volume for a sustainable recovery. Even if OBV breaks above this line, momentum remains weak, only temporarily reducing the risk of a collapse without confirming a new uptrend.

Overwhelming short pressure signals further weakness

Derivatives products are issuing a second warning. The 30-day liquidation map recorded about $15.32 million in short positions, while only $2.66 million in long positions. This means shorts outnumber longs by 475%—a clear imbalance, reflecting an important reality: the market currently does not expect HBAR to bounce back.

The liquidation map also highlights points where leveraged traders could be forced to close positions if HBAR’s price moves to certain levels.

NguSource: CoinglassThis imbalance creates two notable effects:

In summary, even though the derivatives market is skewed bearish, the current setup still leaves a small window for HBAR to stage a surprise breakout.

HBAR price shows a clear crossroads

HBAR is trading around $0.134, right at the support zone we previously warned about. If this area does not hold, the next drop could test $0.129. Losing this level would pave the way down to $0.087, reflecting an overall downtrend as sellers remain in control.

Conversely, the first resistance lies at $0.144. A daily candle close above this level would show buyers gradually absorbing the sell pressure, presenting a chance to reverse the trend and weaken the current bearish scenario.

BiHBAR/USDT daily chart | Source: TradingViewIf the rally continues, the next barrier is identified around $0.164. However, conquering this level requires two key factors: increasing trading volume as indicated by OBV, and reduced short pressure in the derivatives market. Lacking either, breakout attempts are likely to fail. Additionally, breaking above $0.164 would trigger the liquidation of all short positions, as the earlier liquidation map showed.

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