PA Daily | The probability of the Fed lowering interest rates in December rises to 81%; Q3 encryption venture capital reaches the second highest record since the FTX collapse.

Today's news highlights:

Fed's Daly supports a rate cut in December, after which the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rises to 81%.

VanEck has submitted a revised registration document for the BNB ETF, with the trading code set as VBNB.

Sandisk will be included in the S&P 500 index, while Strategy has been excluded again.

James Wynn predicts that BTC may reach $67,000 this week.

In Q3, the total amount of venture capital investment in the cryptocurrency industry reached $4.65 billion, marking the second highest record since the FTX collapse.

The investment partner of Berachain, Framework, has an unrealized loss of over 50.8 million dollars in its BERA holdings.

Macroeconomics

Shanghai Blockchain Innovation Fund Unveiled

According to the Science and Technology Innovation Board Daily, at the 2025 Global Digital Commerce Conference, the Shanghai Blockchain Innovation Fund was officially unveiled. At the same time, the Shanghai-New Cooperation released the collaborative results of mutual recognition of digital identities and electronic certification documents. The innovative consortium for mineral data export standards was launched, and the application scenarios for blockchain letters of credit were also officially introduced. In addition, the Shanghai Data Group, in collaboration with the National Data Development Research Institute, compiled and published the “White Paper on the Construction and Operation of Industry-Trusted Data Spaces Based on Unified Data Infrastructure.”

VanEck has submitted a revised version of the BNB ETF registration documents, with the trading code set as VBNB.

According to a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), VanEck submitted a revised registration statement for the BNB ETF (Form S-1 Amendment No. 2) on November 21, 2025. This ETF aims to track the price performance of BNB and plans to be listed on NASDAQ under the ticker VBNB. The fund currently does not engage in BNB staking operations, and if staking activities are conducted in the future, they will be completed through third-party service providers, with prior notification to investors. Previously, market news reported that the VANECK BNB ETF is registered in Delaware.

Sandisk will be included in the S&P 500 index, while Strategy has been excluded again.

According to a report by Morningstar, S&P Dow Jones Indices announced on Monday evening that computer storage device manufacturer Sandisk Corp. will officially join the S&P 500 Index on November 28. The company will be transferred from the S&P SmallCap 600 Index to the S&P 500 Index, replacing Interpublic Group of Companies Inc. (stock code: IPG) in the advertising and marketing sector. Furthermore, Sandisk has also outperformed Bitcoin treasury company Strategy (stock code: MSTR), which recently just qualified for inclusion in the S&P 500 Index. Previously, in the quarterly adjustment of September 2025, Strategy also failed to qualify.

Galaxy Digital is exploring becoming a market maker on the prediction markets Polymarket and Kalshi.

According to Bloomberg, Galaxy Digital Inc. is in discussions with Polymarket and Kalshi Inc. to become liquidity providers on their platforms, as the popularity of prediction markets continues to rise with retail demand and growing interest from Wall Street. Mike Novogratz, founder of Galaxy Digital, stated in an interview that Galaxy Digital has always focused on providing crypto infrastructure services for institutional clients. If they can enter these prediction trading platforms as market makers, the company will provide regular quotes, thus enhancing the liquidity of the platforms. He said, “We are currently experimenting on a small scale with market-making in prediction markets, but I believe you will eventually see us providing broader liquidity support.”

Fed's Daly supports a rate cut in December, after which the probability of a Fed rate cut in December rises to 81%

According to a report by Jinshi citing The Wall Street Journal, Mary Daly, President of the San Francisco Fed and a voting member of the FOMC in 2027, stated that she supports a rate cut next month because she believes the likelihood of a sudden deterioration in the labor market is greater and more difficult to control than a sudden rise in inflation. In an interview on Monday, she said, “I am not confident that we can get ahead of the labor market. The labor market is now weak enough that the risk is for a nonlinear change to occur.” She indicated that, in contrast, the risk of an inflation outbreak is lower because the cost increases driven by tariffs are much milder than previously expected earlier this year. Daly's views are noteworthy, as she does not have a vote on monetary policy this year, but she rarely disagrees with Fed Chairman Jerome Powell in public. At the meeting on December 9-10, Daly may play a key role in resolving the internal disagreements within the rate-setting committee regarding whether to cut rates or pause rate hikes. Following Daly's comments, CME's “FedWatch” shows an 81% probability of the Fed cutting rates by 25 basis points in December (up from 69.4% the previous day), with a 19% probability of keeping rates unchanged. The cumulative probability of a 25 basis point rate cut by the Fed by January next year is 65.2%, with a 14.1% probability of keeping rates unchanged, and a 20.6% probability of a cumulative 50 basis point cut.

opinion

James Wynn predicts that BTC may reach $67,000 this week.

Cryptocurrency analyst James Wynn stated on social media that Bitcoin could reach $67,000 this weekend or even earlier. He believes that there is strong support and buying pressure in this price range, making it likely to align with market trends. However, he emphasized that this is merely a probability-based prediction, and there is still uncertainty in the market. Previously, data showed that Huang Licheng was liquidated 71 times in November on Hyperliquid, followed closely by James Wynn and Andrew Tate with 26 and 19 times respectively.

TD Cowen: The Bitcoin premium in Strategy is nearing the “crypto winter” low point, but still maintains a buy rating.

According to a report by The Block, TD Cowen's latest report indicates that the Bitcoin premium of Strategy, led by Michael Saylor, continues to decline and is currently “approaching the lows of the ‘crypto winter’ of 2021-2022.” The report includes two updated premium charts (one tracing back to 2020 and the other covering nearly the past 12 months), showing that Strategy did not issue additional stock or purchase new Bitcoin through its at-the-market (ATM) plan yesterday, prompting the market to reevaluate its current premium levels. The charts show that the current premium has significantly retreated from last year's peak and is gradually compressing to the levels seen at the end of 2021 and the beginning of 2022. Nevertheless, TD Cowen maintains a bullish stance on MSTR, keeping a buy rating and a target price of $535 (about 200% higher than Strategy's current stock price of approximately $180), believing that “achieving this target within a year is reasonably expected.” The report states: “We have not adjusted our base Bitcoin price expectations and anticipate that Strategy will hold 815,000 Bitcoins by the end of fiscal year 2027, estimating that its holdings will exceed $185 billion by December 2027, which implies an intrinsic value of approximately $540 per share. The $535 target price reflects a zero premium to the intrinsic value per share in December 2027.” The report also emphasizes that the risk of Strategy being removed from the MSCI index has exerted pressure on its stock price, and it is expected that the company will be removed from the index, continuing to face pressure under the shadow of MSCI.

Project Updates

Binance Alpha will delist CELB and AIBOT tokens due to issues related to token overissuance.

According to the official announcement from Binance in Chinese, due to on-chain data showing that the circulation of CELB and AIBOT tokens exceeds the original unlocking plan set by the project party, Binance Alpha will delist these two assets on November 25, 2025, at 17:00 (UTC+8). Holders will convert their tokens to USDC at the closing prices on November 24, 2025, with 1 CELB = 0.00007042 USDC and 1 AIBOT = 0.00042472 USDC, credited to their spot accounts within 3 days. Binance stated that if any illegal activities by the project party are confirmed, further actions will be taken.

Pump.fun co-founders deny that the project has cashed out USDC through Kraken.

In response to Lookonchain's claim that “Pump.fun has cashed out at least 436.5 million USDC through Kraken since October 15,” Pump.fun co-founder Sapijiju stated: “This is completely false information. Pump.fun has never cashed out (referring to the transactions between Kraken and Circle that Lookonchain accused Pump.fun of being involved in). The actual situation is that this is part of Pump.fun's fund management, and the USDC obtained from the PUMP ICO has been transferred to different wallets in order to reinvest the company's operating funds back into the business. Pump.fun has never directly collaborated with Circle.”

OKX announces the listing of Dash (DASH)

OKX announced that it will list Dash (DASH), with the following arrangements: The DASH deposit function will open on November 25, 2025, at 17:00. Users can place orders in advance from 19:00 to 20:00 on November 26, 2025. The DASH/USDT spot trading will officially open at 20:00 on November 26, 2025, and the withdrawal function will open at 22:00 on November 26, 2025.

MegaETH announces that the USDm pre-deposit channel will open today at 22:00.

MegaETH announced on platform X that the USDm pre-deposit channel will open today at 22:00 ( UTC+8. The website will be available for Sonar verification about 1 hour before the opening, with a limit of 250 million USD. Deposit users will receive USDm tokens on the MeqaETH mainnet in December. Previously, it was reported that MegaETH will launch a pre-deposit cross-chain bridge on November 25, with a total limit of 250 million USD.

Binance Alpha will launch SUPERFORTUNE (GUA)

According to the official announcement, Binance Alpha will launch SUPERFORTUNE (GUA) on November 27. Eligible users can go to the Alpha event page to claim the airdrop using Binance Alpha points after the trading opens. More details will be announced soon.

Binance Alpha has launched the Vulgar Penguin and BNBHolder tokens.

According to official page information, Binance Alpha has launched the Vulgar Penguin and BNBHolder tokens.

Lighter: The spot trading testnet is now live.

The crypto trading protocol Lighter announced on platform X that the spot trading testnet is now live and welcomes feedback from traders to help prepare for the official launch of the mainnet. Previously, on November 11, it was reported that Lighter completed a $68 million funding round, led by Founders Fund and Ribbit Capital.

Berachain's co-founder denies offering “special refund rights,” stating that the relevant terms are compliance arrangements and that there are precedents in the industry.

In response to the report that “Nova Digital, a subsidiary of Brevan Howard, is entitled to a $25 million refund for its investment in Berachain,” Smokey the Bera, the anonymous co-founder of Berachain, stated on the X platform: “This malicious smear article is neither complete nor accurate. The facts are as follows: 1. A year ago, Brevan Howard led the Series B financing through Nova from its Abu Dhabi office, and the investment terms were the same as those of all other investors; Nova proactively reached out months ago expressing its desire to lead the investment. 2. Nova's compliance team requested the addition of a clause to prevent Berachain from failing to conduct TGE and list; thus, the locked tokens BERA purchased in the financing could not become eligible investments through Nova's liquidity strategy; hence, a supplementary agreement was signed, committing Nova to undertake additional business arrangements, including an agreement to provide liquidity after the network goes live; this agreement was not made to transact with uninterested parties or to prevent losses after the launch, and such practices have precedents. 3. On the contrary, Nova remains one of Berachain's largest token holders, is a liquidity provider, holds the locked tokens BERA obtained from the Series B financing as well as liquidity tokens BERA purchased on the open market, and has consistently supported us while increasing its holdings over time.”

Talus: Launches LP-based airdrop mechanism, pre-registration portal page is now live.

The Talus Foundation announced on platform X that it will launch an LP-based airdrop mechanism, with Talus airdropping yield-generating liquidity positions in the form of yUS tokens. yUS is a fungible token that encapsulates automated liquidity provision strategies for the US-USDC trading pool on Momentum DEX through the NODO AI treasury. The Talus Token Generation Event (TGE) community airdrop participants include Tally NFT holders (snapshot EDT time November 17 at 10:00), community center participants (top 500 ranked in seasons 1, 2, and 3, and holding Talizen Discord roles), participants of the Korea Blockchain Week (KBW) event, Talus Kaito active users, and Kaito stakers. The airdrop process has two phases: Phase 1: Pre-registration (November 24 - November 28), where all eligible recipients must complete pre-registration during this period to qualify, and the relevant website is now online. Phase 2: Claiming (to be announced), where all registered recipients must claim within this three-day window. No exceptions will be made for late claims. Previously, in September, it was reported that the decentralized AI agent infrastructure layer TalusNetwork had completed over $10 million in funding.

Irys: The airdrop claim for the IRYS token will start today at 20:00.

The programmable data chain Irys announced on platform X that the IRYS token airdrop claim link is now live, with the claiming period from November 25th, 20:00 Beijing time to December 25th, 20:00. The snapshot time was November 11th. In addition, Irys stated that the top 10,000 participants on Galxe will receive the airdrop; all Genesis NFT holders who have completed the airdrop registration will qualify for the airdrop. Previously, Irys announced the IRYS token economics: the initial circulation accounts for 20%, with 8% allocated for airdrops and future incentives.

Coinbase will launch spot trading for Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX).

According to the official announcement, Coinbase will launch spot trading for Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX). In regions where trading is supported, if liquidity conditions are met, the FLUID-USD and WMTX-USD trading pairs will be available starting from 01:00 Beijing time on November 26, 2025, or thereafter. Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX) will be available for trading on coinbase.com, the Coinbase app, and the Coinbase Advanced platform. Institutions can trade Fluid (FLUID) and World Mobile Token (WMTX) directly through the Coinbase exchange.

) Important Data

A certain whale continues to increase its short position in HYPE by 22.2 million USD, bringing the current short size to 67 million USD.

According to social media user MLM, a certain whale has continued to increase its short position in HYPE after a previous liquidation, adding about 700,000 HYPE (worth $22.2 million), pushing its liquidation range to $33.37 to $33.57, which is only about 5% higher than the current price. Currently, this whale's total short position has reached 2.1 million HYPE (worth $67.1 million), using a margin of $6.9 million, and is still increasing its position. Previously, news stated that Hyperliquid will unlock $308 million in HYPE for the first time on November 29, accounting for 2.66% of the circulating supply.

A wallet associated with Ethena Labs purchased 25 million ENA from Bybit, worth 6.7 million USD.

According to Onchain Lens, a wallet associated with Ethena Labs purchased 25 million ENA from Bybit, worth 6.7 million dollars. The wallet currently holds 285.15 million ENA, with a total value of 76.46 million dollars.

Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a total net outflow of $151 million yesterday, with only Fidelity's FBTC achieving a net inflow.

According to SoSoValue data, yesterday (Eastern Time November 24) the total net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETFs was $151 million. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net inflow yesterday was Fidelity ### ETF FBTC, with a single-day net inflow of $15.4865 million, and the total historical net inflow of FBTC has reached $11.814 billion. The Bitcoin spot ETF with the highest single-day net outflow yesterday was Blackrock ( ETF IBIT, with a single-day net outflow of $149 million, and the total historical net inflow of IBIT has reached $62.554 billion. As of the time of writing, the total net asset value of Bitcoin spot ETFs is $116.202 billion, with an ETF net asset ratio (the market value compared to the total market value of Bitcoin) of 6.54%, and the cumulative historical net inflow has reached $57.484 billion.

A certain whale withdrew 10,026 ETH from Binance after a year of silence, worth 29.16 million dollars.

According to monitoring by Onchain Lens, a giant whale withdrew 10,026 ETH from Binance after a year of silence, worth 29.16 million USD.

The 40.71 million TRX previously purchased by WLFI has been recharged into HTX in the past 10 hours.

According to on-chain analyst @ai_9684xtpa, the 40.71 million TRX previously purchased by WLFI has been recharged into HTX in the past 10 hours, with unknown purposes. Ten months ago, WLFI bought 40.17 million USD worth of TRX at an average price of 0.2415 USD, valued at 9.85 million USD; yesterday, WLFI Strategic Reserve conducted a small transfer test of 147 TRX to address 0x6A2…C99c9, which was then recharged into HTX; 10 hours ago, 40.68 million TRX was completely transferred and recharged into HTX in batches, worth 11.23 million USD. Among the bundle of tokens previously purchased by WLFI, LINK/AAVE/ENA/MOVE/ONDO, etc., have also been recharged into Coinbase, claiming “not for sale, but for reallocating assets for daily business purposes”, however, this is the first recharge into HTX.

Zhao Changpeng denies that “Jackie Chan will play Zhao Changpeng in a certain documentary”

Regarding the rumor that “Jackie Chan will play Zhao Changpeng in the upcoming Netflix documentary 'King of Cryptocurrency',” Zhao Changpeng denied it, saying: “This is false. I like Jackie Chan, but he is already 71 years old. Let him be! I'm still working hard to finish this book. The last 5% of the editing always takes 95% of the time.”

( investment and financing/acquisition

In Q3, the total amount of venture capital in the cryptocurrency industry reached $4.65 billion, the second highest record since the collapse of FTX.

According to Cointelegraph, a research report released by Galaxy Digital on Monday states that in the third quarter of 2025, the total amount of venture capital in the cryptocurrency industry reached $4.65 billion, a quarter-over-quarter increase of 290%, marking the second highest record since the FTX collapse in 2022 (the highest record being $4.8 billion in the first quarter of this year). A total of 414 transactions were completed this quarter, with seven large transactions, including Revolut's $1 billion funding and Kraken's $500 million funding, accounting for half of the total funding amount. American companies received 47% of the investment amount, while companies in Singapore and the UK received 7.3% and 6.8%, respectively. Research director Alex Thorn pointed out that stablecoins, AI, blockchain infrastructure, and other fields continue to attract capital, but as the industry matures, the proportion of Pre-seed investments is gradually declining. The activity of venture capital in the past two years remains below the levels seen during the bull market of 2021-2022. Thorn analyzed that the decline in popularity in areas like gaming and NFTs, the diversion of funds to AI tracks, and factors such as the interest rate environment have collectively led to a stagnation in venture capital. At the same time, compliant investment channels like spot ETFs are competing with traditional venture capital for institutional funds.

Brevan Howard is reported to have a $25 million “refund right” on its investment in Berachain.

According to The Block, Jack Kubinec, a columnist for Unchained, disclosed in a recent report that Brevan Howard's venture capital investment in Berachain is nearly “zero risk.” Documents made public this Monday reveal that Berachain granted Brevan's crypto investment subsidiary, Nova Digital, a special right — a one-year refund guarantee on its $25 million Series B financing investment. This means that despite Brevan co-leading a $69 million financing round for Berachain at a valuation of $1.5 billion, it can still recover its entire investment after the token generation event on February 6. This right is said to be valid until February 6, 2026. Kubinec pointed out in the report: “Such refund terms allow Brevan's fund principal to completely avoid risk, which is in stark contrast to traditional venture capital models. If Berachain's BERA token performs well, the fund will gain excess returns; if the token underperforms, the fund can exercise its refund rights.” Currently, the trading price of the BERA token is about $1, down approximately 67% from Brevan's investment cost of $3. According to data from The Block, the fully diluted valuation of the token is now $536.7 million. The Series B financing was led by Framework Ventures, with participation from Arrington Capital, Hack VC, Polychain, and Tribe Capital. Berachain also completed a $42 million Series A financing in 2023. It is currently unclear whether other investors also have refund rights.

The BERA holdings of Framework, the investor in Berachain, may have an unrealized loss of over $50.8 million.

According to Unchained, by the end of the second quarter of 2025, Framework Ventures' investment of $72.4 million in the Series B funding of Berachain, which purchased 21,145,476 BERA tokens, has resulted in a paper loss of over $50.8 million based on current prices. It is reported that Framework Ventures and Brevan Howard's Nova fund jointly led the Series B financing for Berachain. Previously, it was reported that Brevan Howard had a “refund right” of $25 million for its investment in Berachain, but the co-founder of Berachain denied providing Brevan Howard with a “special refund right”, stating that the relevant terms are compliance arrangements and there are precedents in the industry.

Exodus will acquire Baanx and Monavate's parent company W3C Corp for $175 million.

According to CoinDesk, the cryptocurrency wallet company Exodus Movement ###NYSE American: EXOD( is acquiring the parent company W3C Corp of cryptocurrency card and payment companies Baanx and Monavate for $175 million. The funding for the transaction consists of the company's existing cash and financing provided by Galaxy Digital, secured by Bitcoin held by Exodus. Baanx and Monavate have been collaborating with institutions like Visa, Mastercard, and MetaMask to develop cryptocurrency cards and user-custodied Web3 payment services. Overall, this transaction will make Exodus one of the few self-custodial wallet providers capable of controlling the entire payment experience from wallet to card. Exodus stated that the company will take over the underlying card and payment technology stack and will have the ability to issue payment cards through networks like Visa, Mastercard, and Discover, while expanding its business scope to the United States, the United Kingdom, and the European Union to support new products and partnerships. Exodus also mentioned that this infrastructure is expected to enhance the capabilities of enterprise clients whose customers transact through Exodus's XO Swap application. The transaction is subject to routine adjustments and approval processes, and is expected to be completed by 2026.

) Institutional Holdings

AVAX One disclosed an investment of $110 million to increase its holdings of AVAX tokens, bringing its total holdings to 13.8 million.

According to Cryptopolitan, the Nasdaq-listed company AVAX One announced that between November 5 and November 23, 2025, the company spent a total of $110 million to purchase 9,377,475 AVAX tokens, with a weighted average purchase price of $11.73 per token, increasing its total holdings of AVAX tokens to over 13.8 million, valued at approximately $193 million at current token prices. AVAX One has retained about $35 million in cash for further token purchases and stock buybacks.

Multicoin Capital today purchased AAVE tokens worth 10.94 million USD.

According to on-chain analyst Yu Jin, Multicoin Capital continued to purchase AAVE today through Galaxy Digital. Over the past month and a half, they have acquired 278,000 AAVE for 49.52 million USD at an average price of 228 USD, resulting in an unrealized loss of 13.9 million USD. After the big drop on October 11, they bought 210,000 AAVE for 51.32 million USD at a price of 244 USD; today they purchased 61,637 AAVE for 10.94 million USD at a price of 177 USD.

The strategy has not disclosed relevant data yet, and there may not have been an increase in BTC holdings last week.

Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy), released a chart with the caption “Probably Nothing” showing that the trading volume of the Bitcoin-supported credit market has continued to grow since mid-September, reaching nearly $20 million in total for the week of November 17 to 21, an increase of 50.8% from the previous week. Among them, $STRC (Strike) is the main contributor, accounting for over $10.51 million, followed by $STRD, $STRF, and $STRK. According to previous situations, Strategy usually discloses the Bitcoin holding data from the previous week on Mondays. As of now, Strategy's official website has not disclosed relevant data, and it appears that there was no increase in BTC last week.

BitMine increased its holdings by nearly 70,000 ETH last week, bringing its total holdings to 3,629,701 ETH, accounting for 3% of the total ETH supply.

BitMine Immersion Technologies (NYSE: BMNR) added 69,822 ETH to its holdings last week, bringing the total to 3,629,701 ETH, valued at approximately $10.2 billion, which accounts for 3% of the total ETH supply.

Enlivex plans to raise $212 million to purchase Rain tokens, creating a digital asset vault for prediction markets.

According to The Block, Nasdaq-listed biopharmaceutical company Enlivex Therapeutics announced that it will raise $212 million through a PIPE private placement to purchase Rain tokens (RAIN) as the core reserve of its Digital Asset Treasury (DAT), stating that this project is the first DAT built around a prediction market token. Rain is a decentralized prediction market protocol on the Arbitrum chain. After the fundraising is completed, former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will join the Enlivex board.