XRP Today News: ETF fund outflow slows vs Fed interest rate cut expectations, Bull vs Bear Battle at the $2.20 level

XRP broke below the key support of $2.2 on November 27. Despite the Spot ETF maintaining net inflows for 9 consecutive days, the daily inflow dropped sharply from $35.41 million to $21.81 million, indicating a cooling demand from institutions. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch Tool shows that the probability of a rate cut in December has risen to 86.9%. This favorable information in the macro environment has pushed Bitcoin back to the $90,000 level, but it has not reversed the downtrend of XRP. The technical outlook shows that XRP has fallen below the 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, and in the short term, attention should be paid to the support effectiveness of the psychological level of $2.

ETF Fund Flow Reveals Institutional Attitude Shift

The US XRP Spot ETF market welcomed its ninth consecutive day of inflow on November 26, but the single-day net inflow decreased to $21.81 million, significantly narrowing from $35.41 million the previous day. Since the launch of the Canary XRP ETF (XRPC) on November 14, the four Spot ETFs have accumulated a net inflow of $643.92 million, with XRPC capturing $334.59 million due to its first-mover advantage. However, a close analysis of the funding structure reveals that the first-day inflow for XRPC was as high as $243.05 million, with subsequent funding follow-up being significantly insufficient.

In stark contrast to market expectations, the Franklin XRP ETF (XRPZ) only garnered a net inflow of $74.54 million since its launch on November 24. This figure is particularly surprising considering that Franklin Templeton ranks 19th in terms of asset management size among ETF issuers, managing assets of $43.94 billion, while Canary ranks 153rd with only $349 million. This disparity reflects a limited level of trust from investors towards emerging issuers and may also hint at a growth bottleneck for the overall XRP Spot ETF market.

The slowdown in capital inflows has directly affected the market's expectations for the future of the BlackRock iShares XRP Trust launch. As a key driver of the Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETF market, BlackRock's IBIT product has accumulated a net inflow of $62.68 billion since its launch, compared to Fidelity's FBTC which has only attracted $11.96 billion. Analysts point out that without the participation of this asset management giant, the XRP spot ETF market will struggle to replicate the successful trajectory of the Bitcoin spot ETF.

Favourable Information from the Macro Perspective Struggles Against Internal Selling Pressure

Despite the rising expectations for Fed interest rate cuts, XRP has failed to gain sufficient support. The CME FedWatch tool shows that the market's probability expectation for a rate cut in December has surged from 39.1% on November 20 to 86.9% on November 27. This shift should have boosted the performance of all risk assets. Bitcoin rose 0.93% against this backdrop, firmly standing above the $90,000 mark, in stark contrast to XRP's fall of 1.03%.

The divergence in this trend is fundamentally due to the structural differences in the two types of asset investors. Bitcoin, as a macro hedging tool, is more sensitive to interest rate changes; whereas XRP is more driven by its specific fundamentals and regulatory developments. On-chain data shows that large holders (whales) are taking profits from any price rebound, and this persistent selling pressure significantly limits the upside potential of XRP. From the low of 1.8239 USD on November 21 to the high of 2.2870 USD on November 24, multiple whale addresses transferred large amounts of XRP to mainstream CEX.

Another key factor is the different impact of spot ETF fund flows on the two types of assets. The inflow of funds into Bitcoin spot ETFs directly creates buying pressure for the underlying asset, while the XRP spot ETF, although following the same mechanism, cannot compare in terms of market size and liquidity depth with Bitcoin. When the pace of institutional fund inflows slows down, the price support for XRP becomes particularly vulnerable.

The technical indicators are signaling a bearish outlook

(Source: TradingView)

From a technical analysis perspective, XRP closed at $2.2001 on November 27, which not only reversed a 0.97% gain from the previous day but also further fell below the $2.2 mark during the early trading on November 28. This breakthrough decline caused XRP to simultaneously lose the 50-day EMA ($2.3631) and the 200-day EMA ($2.5182), forming a typical short to medium-term bearish pattern. Technical analysts generally believe that the current downward pressure can only be alleviated if the price stabilizes above $2.2.

XRP key price levels and market dynamics

Support Level Tier

• Primary support: 2.0 dollar psychological level
• Secondary support: 1.9112 USD (November adjustment low)
• Strong support: 1.8239 USD (November 21 low)

Resistance Level Distribution

• Recent resistance: 2.2 USD (previous support turned resistance)
• Mid-term resistance: $2.35 (near the 50-day EMA)
• Key Resistance: 2.5182 USD (200 Day EMA)

Catalytic Event Monitoring

• XRP Spot ETF daily fund flow data
• Blue chip companies' statements on XRP as a reserve asset
• Ripple's U.S. bank license application progress
• Market Structure Bill Senate Voting Schedule

Observing historical price behavior, it can be found that the range from 1.8239 to 1.9112 USD has provided effective support multiple times in November. If the current downtrend continues, these levels will become a key defense line for bulls. On the other hand, any upward breakthrough needs to first conquer the 2.2 USD resistance, and then challenge the resistance zone formed by 2.2870 USD (the high on November 24) and 2.35 USD (50-day EMA).

Future Catalysts and Long-Short Scenario Simulation

In the coming weeks, several key events will determine the price direction of XRP. The most noteworthy regulatory aspect is the progress of Ripple's application for a banking license in the United States, as well as the voting results of the market structure bill in the Senate. Looking back at July 17, when the House passed the bill, XRP surged by 14.69% in a single day, demonstrating the significant impact of policy on price. If the Senate passes it smoothly, it may catalyze a new round of institutional buying.

In a bearish scenario, if there is a net outflow from the XRP Spot ETF, combined with the Senate's opposition to crypto-friendly legislation, the price may test the psychological level of 2.0 USD. If this level is lost, the supports at 1.9112 USD and 1.8239 USD will face severe testing. Especially if the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) delays or rejects Ripple's bank license application, the market's expectations for XRP's traditional financial application scenarios will be severely impacted.

The bullish scenario requires meeting three conditions: continuous inflow of Spot ETF funds, at least one blue-chip company announcing the inclusion of XRP into its reserve assets, and substantial progress in bank license applications. In this case, after breaking the 2.2 resistance, the next target would be 2.2870 USD, and stabilizing at this position would open the path to 2.35 USD and the 50-day EMA. If further news stimulates from BlackRock's application for the iShares XRP Trust, the possibility of challenging the 3.0 USD mark cannot be ruled out.

Short-term trends depend on two core variables

As the US market reopens after Thanksgiving, both long and short positions on XRP will engage in a new round of contention at the $2.2 mark. The capital flow data for Spot ETF and expectations regarding Fed policies will become the most important price drivers in the short term. From a market sentiment perspective, although the technical outlook is bearish, if there is favourable information from the regulatory side, XRP may still experience a rally independent of Bitcoin. Investors should closely follow the progress of the Senate's debate on the market structure bill, as this political variable is likely to be a key catalyst in breaking the current stalemate, determining whether XRP can challenge the $3 mark again before the end of the year.