Zcash big dump 50% alert! Analyst: ZEC will crash to 200 USD in the coming weeks.

Zcash (ZEC) experienced an astonishing pump at the beginning of 2025, with an increase of over 1230%, but then began to fall sharply. As of December 1, ZEC has fallen nearly 50% from its yearly high of 743 USD, with a lowest trading price of 377 USD. Analyst Altcoin Sherpa warned that the likelihood of the coin price dropping to 200 USD in the coming weeks or months is increasing.

from 1230% pump to 50% fall roller coaster

(Source: Trading View)

Zcash hovered around $30 in early 2025, followed by an astonishing pump. By November, the price of ZEC surged to an annual high of $743, with a rise of over 1230%, making it one of the best-performing mainstream crypto assets of the year. This explosive growth was primarily driven by the news of Grayscale submitting a Zcash ETF application, which the market interpreted as an important signal of institutional recognition for privacy coins.

However, after the end of November, Zcash began to fall sharply. As of December 1, ZEC had fallen nearly 50% from its yearly high of $743, with the lowest trading price at $377. Its trend reflects the turmoil in the entire cryptocurrency market triggered by the Federal Reserve being at an impasse on interest rate cuts in December. Such a decline is common in the cryptocurrency market, but considering that Zcash still has a substantial accumulated increase from the beginning of the year to now, the speed and magnitude of this correction are still shocking.

The price trajectory from $30 to $743 and then to $377 demonstrates a typical speculative bubble pattern: rapid rise, parabolic acceleration, followed by a crash-style correction. During the bubble expansion phase, FOMO (fear of missing out) drives investors to buy without regard to cost, pushing prices far beyond fundamental support. When the bubble bursts, panic selling also occurs without regard to cost, leading to a rapid decline in prices.

The Federal Reserve's plan to cut interest rates in December has stagnated, becoming the macro catalyst for this pullback. The market originally expected the Federal Reserve to continue cutting rates by the end of 2025, which would provide liquidity support for risk assets. However, due to the stickiness of inflation data and the resilience of economic data, the Federal Reserve hinted at a possible pause in rate cuts. This policy shift has triggered adjustments across the entire crypto market, with assets like Zcash, which have seen significant gains previously, facing particularly heavy pullback pressure.

Altcoin Sherpa's $200 target is not alarmist

(Source: Trading View)

Currently, analyst Altcoin Sherpa predicts that the price of ZEC will further fall in the coming weeks or months, with 200 dollars being a reasonable downward target. Altcoin Sherpa is a well-regarded technical analyst in the cryptocurrency community, known for his accurate predictions in the altcoin market. His 200 dollar target is not a random guess, but rather a comprehensive judgment based on multiple technical indicators.

The adjustment of Zcash seems to be far from over, as the chart structure indicates that there is still room for further fall before forming any lasting bottom. The next key price level to watch is in the range of $368 to $370, which coincides with the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level of the upward trend in 2025. After a parabolic rise, this midpoint retracement level is often a crucial turning point.

Fibonacci retracement is one of the most widely used tools in technical analysis, based on the mathematical properties of the Fibonacci sequence to predict key levels of price pullbacks. After a significant upward movement, prices typically retrace to the 38.2%, 50%, or 61.8% levels to form support. Zcash is currently testing the 50% retracement level, which is the most critical midpoint. Historical experience shows that if the 50% retracement level is lost, prices often continue to decline to the 61.8% retracement level or even lower.

If it falls below the 0.5 Fibonacci level (368-370 USD), it indicates deeper downside risk, and the 200-day exponential moving average (near 200 USD) will come into focus. This moving average also overlaps with the consolidation period before the breakout in October, further reinforcing its importance as a potential mid-term downside target and structural support level. The 200-day EMA is a critical watershed for long-term trends, and when the price approaches this average, it typically triggers intense bull-bear struggles.

Three Key Price Levels for the Fall Path of Zcash

Current Position: 377 USD - Down 50% from the annual high of 743 USD, facing continued downward pressure.

First Support: 368-370 USD - 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, a fall below will confirm a deep adjustment.

Second Support: $200 - the position of the 200-day EMA, which is also the consolidation area before the breakout in October, with the final target level.

Double Top Formation Confirmed Bearish Reversal

(Source: Trading View)

The daily chart of Zcash has further reinforced the downside risk after forming a clear double top pattern around the 700-750 dollar range. When ZEC breaks below the neckline of 440-450 dollars (which was previously a support level and has now turned into a resistance level), the bearish reversal trend has been confirmed. The double top pattern is one of the most reliable reversal patterns in technical analysis, signaling the exhaustion of upward momentum and a reversal of the trend.

The formation process of the double top pattern reveals a shift in market psychology. When the first top appears, bulls attempt to push the price to new highs but encounter strong selling pressure around $743. After the price retraces, optimistic investors believe this is just a technical correction and launch another attack. However, the second top fails to surpass the first top, indicating that buying strength is waning. When the price falls below the low point between the two tops (the neckline), it confirms that the bulls have lost control.

Since that fall, the price has broken below the key short-term moving average and has begun to create lower highs, indicating a downtrend is forming rather than a consolidation. Lower highs are a typical characteristic of a declining trend, meaning that each rebound encounters resistance at a lower position, with buying pressure continuously weakening. This structural deterioration means that any rebound should be viewed as a chance to reduce positions rather than a signal for a trend reversal.

The measurement trend of the double top pattern indicates that the price will fall to the mid-200 dollar range, which is in very good alignment with the rising 200-day moving average trend. The measurement method for the double top pattern is to take the distance from the top to the neckline and extend it downward the same distance from the neckline. The distance from the top of 743 dollars to the neckline of 440 dollars is approximately 303 dollars. Subtracting 303 dollars from 440 dollars gives a target level of approximately 137 dollars. However, considering the support of the 200-day EMA and the previous consolidation area, it is more likely that the vicinity of 200 dollars will become the actual stop-loss position.

RSI has not yet been oversold indicating that the fall is not over

The momentum indicator further reinforces the bearish pattern. The daily Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dropped significantly. However, the index has not yet entered a deeply oversold state, which means there may still be room for further decline before the selling pressure completely dissipates. The RSI is a momentum indicator that measures the speed and magnitude of price changes, with a value range between 0 and 100. Typically, an RSI below 30 is considered an oversold area, while above 70 is considered an overbought area.

Although the current RSI has clearly declined, if it has not yet touched the oversold zone below 30, it indicates that selling pressure has not been fully released. Many technical analysts look for buying opportunities when the RSI enters the oversold zone and starts to rebound, as this typically marks the end of panic selling. However, when the RSI is still declining above the oversold zone, it means that the downward momentum is still continuing, making it too early to buy the dip.

Historically, after a significant pump, Zcash's corrections often last for several weeks or even months. During the 2021 bull market, ZEC rose over 800% from its low to high, and subsequently retraced more than 90% of its gains in the bear market. Although the current market environment is different from 2021, this historical precedent reminds investors that the volatility of privacy coins is much higher than that of mainstream crypto assets, and the depth and duration of corrections may exceed expectations.

For investors holding Zcash, the current strategy choice depends on the investment time frame. Short-term traders should strictly set stop-losses to avoid having a gambling mentality during a downtrend. The 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level at 368-370 USD is the key defense line, and breaking below this will confirm further declines towards 200 USD. Medium to long-term investors who believe in the value of Zcash's privacy technology and the institutional adoption potential brought by ETFs may consider gradually building positions around 200 USD, but must be mentally prepared for the possibility of further price declines.

Risk management is currently the most important consideration. The 50% pullback of Zcash from $743 to $377 has already caused significant paper losses, and if it continues to fall to $200, it would mean a 73% retracement from the peak. Such a magnitude of loss would be catastrophic for most investors, making it crucial to set reasonable stop-loss levels and position management.