▌Bitwise’s Crypto Index Fund BITW to Trade on NYSE Arca
Crypto asset management firm Bitwise Asset Management announced that its crypto index fund—the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW)—will be upgraded to the NYSE Arca market as an exchange-traded product. BITW, which was first launched in 2017, is the first crypto index fund designed to track the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, providing investors with broad and diversified exposure to the cryptocurrency market. The fund holds the 10 largest crypto assets by market cap, with active screening and monthly rebalancing. Under its new ETP structure, BITW will allocate 90% of its holdings to crypto assets currently held by existing single-token ETPs—currently including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP—and will cap the total weight of all other crypto assets at 10%. If other crypto assets receive the same regulatory approval as BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP, BITW will be able to include them in the 90% holdings category. Upon listing, BITW’s holdings in the following 10 crypto assets were weighted as follows: Bitcoin: 74.34%; ETH: 15.55%; XRP: 5.17%; Solana (SOL): 3.07%; Cardano (ADA): 0.65%; Chainlink (LINK): 0.39%; Litecoin (LTC): 0.26%; Avalanche (AVAX): 0.24%; Sui: 0.24%; Polkadot (DOT): 0.14%.
▌Securitize Appoints Former PayPal Executive as General Counsel, Preparing for SPAC Listing
Asset tokenization company Securitize has announced the hiring of former PayPal Head of Digital Assets Legal, Jerome Roche, as General Counsel, as the company prepares to go public via a Cantor Fitzgerald-backed SPAC on Nasdaq. The merger is expected to give Securitize a $1.25 billion valuation, trading under the ticker SECZ. Securitize plans to tokenize its own equity and is the issuer of BlackRock’s on-chain Treasury fund BUIDL. Roche stated his professional focus is “the intersection of compliance regulation and technological innovation.”
Market
As of press time, according to CoinGecko:
BTC price is $92,895.22, 24h change +2.4%;
ETH price is $3,329.38, 24h change +6.5%;
BNB price is $901.50, 24h change +0.3%;
SOL price is $138.58, 24h change +4.0%;
DOGE price is $0.1485, 24h change +4.3%;
XRP price is $2.11, 24h change +1.8%;
TRX price is $0.2824, 24h change +0.3%;
WLFI price is $0.1515, 24h change +0.8%;
HYPE price is $27.98, 24h change -4.9%.
Policy
▌US OCC Confirms Banks Can Engage in Riskless Principal Crypto Asset Trading
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ((OCC)) today issued Interpretive Letter 1188, confirming that national banks may engage in permissible banking activities related to riskless principal crypto asset trading. Such transactions involve a bank acting as principal in a crypto asset trade with one customer while entering into an offsetting transaction with another customer. The bank acts as an intermediary, does not hold crypto asset inventory, and operates in a broker-like agency capacity. As with any activity, national banks must conduct these activities in a safe and sound manner and comply with applicable laws.
▌EU Plans to Launch Capital Market Integration Reform by 2027, Crypto Firms to Be Regulated by ESMA
EU Financial Services Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque said on Tuesday that the EU aims to begin implementing its capital market integration reform package by 2027, providing the first indication of the reform’s timeline. “We should push for discussion and approval of this package as soon as possible. Ideally, if it could be implemented in 2027, that would be ideal.” Last week, the European Commission announced plans to grant its market regulator, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), greater oversight and enforcement powers as part of measures to integrate fragmented capital markets. The proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament and the EU Council, with some member states strongly opposed. Centralizing regulatory authority will bring key clearing houses, central securities depositories, and trading platforms under ESMA’s jurisdiction, and crypto companies will also be regulated by ESMA. The EU has also pledged a comprehensive review of banking regulations by the end of next year, and the ECB will announce proposals to streamline bank supervision on Thursday, which will be included in the Commission’s overall reform effort.
Blockchain Applications
▌MetaMask Launches Perpetual Contracts Feature, Supports Multiple US Stocks and Stock Market Trading
MetaMask wallet’s mobile app now supports long and short trading for multiple US stocks and other stock market assets. The perpetual contract trading service has officially launched on MetaMask’s mobile app, with technical support from the Hyperliquid protocol. The newly redesigned mobile interface is tailored for traders, allowing users to open perpetual contract positions within seconds. MetaMask also announced that users can now fund their perpetual contract accounts with any token on any Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible chain and can directly go long or short on over 150 tokens, US stocks, and other stock market assets from their mobile devices. MetaMask emphasized in its update that this service does not require a centralized exchange or extra connection to a decentralized application (DApp).
▌Polymarket CEO: Currently Operating at a Loss, Expanding Market Share is Top Priority
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan told AXIOS that Polymarket is currently operating at a loss. “It’s not that we dislike money, but our priority is to create a completely new market and expand it as much as possible—gaining the largest possible market share is the top priority.” Every prediction market actually has a spread, similar to sports betting; users don’t appear to pay a fee, but they do pay the spread. However, on Polymarket, the spread is not taken by the platform but distributed to liquidity providers, earned by those placing orders.
▌RWA Platform Real Finance Raises $29 Million
Real world asset ((RWA)) tokenization network Real Finance has raised $29 million in private funding to build the infrastructure layer for RWA, aiming to make tokenized assets easier for institutions to adopt. This round includes a $25 million capital commitment from digital asset investment firm Nimbus Capital, with Magnus Capital and Frekaz Group also participating. Real Finance said the funds will be used to expand its compliance and operational infrastructure to develop a full-stack RWA platform.
Cryptocurrency
▌Circle Partners with Aleo to Launch Bank-Grade Privacy Stablecoin USDCx
Circle and Aleo blockchain announced the launch of privacy-enhanced stablecoin USDCx. The stablecoin will provide users with “bank-grade privacy,” making transaction data invisible to the public while retaining compliance records for regulatory review.
▌Singapore Exchange Bitcoin and Ethereum Perpetual Futures Volume Reaches $250 Million
Since their launch two weeks ago, Singapore Exchange ((SGX)) Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures have achieved cumulative trading volume of $250 million. SGX President Michael Syn said these products attract new liquidity rather than funds shifting from other exchanges. Institutional investors mainly use these regulated contracts for spot-futures arbitrage, not just going long. Unlike unregulated markets, SGX adopts a more conservative margin management approach to avoid high-leverage auto-liquidations. The exchange aims to establish its BTC/ETH perpetual futures as benchmark contracts for the Asia trading session, providing reliable pricing and liquidity references for regional investors.
▌Cathie Wood: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Will Be Broken; We May Have Seen the Bottom
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood said that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle will be broken, and we may have already seen the lowest point in the current cycle.
▌Standard Chartered Cuts 2025 Bitcoin Price Forecast to $100,000
Standard Chartered said in a report Tuesday that it has halved its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast to $100,000. The bank also postponed its long-term $500,000 target to 2030 from the original 2028. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out that the downgrade is due to revised demand expectations, noting that aggressive corporate buying by entities like MicroStrategy has “ended,” and institutional adoption via ETFs has been slower than expected. Kendrick said future Bitcoin price increases will be “driven solely by ETF purchases.” Currently, Bitcoin’s quarterly ETF inflows have dropped to 50,000 BTC, the lowest since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched. By contrast, in Q4 2024, quarterly ETF and digital asset treasury purchases totaled 450,000 BTC.
▌Ethereum Foundation-Linked Address Deposits 5,748 ETH to Kraken
According to Lookonchain, address 0x9D1c deposited 5,748 ETH (about $17.89 million) to Kraken about 50 minutes ago. On-chain tracking shows this ETH originally came from the Ethereum Foundation.
▌Yi Lihua: Remains Bullish on ETH Since Going All-In
Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua posted on social media: “ETH has broken above $3,300; I’ve remained bullish since going all-in. Investing is always the hardest thing—it tests not just your mindset but also your understanding. Be greedy when others are fearful: easier said than done.”
Bitcoin miner IREN (IREN) completed a refinancing transaction, including a $2.3 billion convertible senior notes issuance and $544.3 million in existing convertible bond repurchases. The new bonds include: $1 billion 0.25% notes due 2032; $1 billion 1% notes due 2033; an additional $300 million greenshoe fully exercised to meet extra demand. IREN also executed capped call transactions to hedge equity dilution from bond conversion and provide protection at an initial price of $82.24 per share. The announcement said, except for standard terms related to significant changes, the notes contain no investor put rights.
▌Coinbase to List Humidifi (WET)
Coinbase will list Humidifi (WET). If liquidity conditions are met and trading is supported in your region, the WET-USD pair will be available.
▌Coinbase to List Hyperlane (HYPER)
Coinbase will list Hyperlane (HYPER). If liquidity conditions are met and trading is supported in your region, HYPER-USD trading will be available.
Key Economic Developments
▌Hassett: Fed Has Plenty of Room for Aggressive Rate Cuts
Top Fed chair contender and White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said Tuesday that he believes the Fed has “plenty of room” for aggressive rate cuts. When asked if he would push for the “big rate cuts” Trump wants if appointed, he replied: “If the data shows we can—like now—I think there’s absolutely room.” Pressed further if this meant cuts greater than 25 basis points, he answered: “That’s right.” Trump told Politico Tuesday that rapid rate cuts will be a “litmus test” for his Fed chair pick. Asked whether his loyalty as chair would be to Trump or to independent economic judgment, Hassett said: “I will stick to my judgment, and I believe the president trusts my judgment.”
▌Trump to Begin Final Round of Fed Chair Interviews This Week
President Trump will begin the final round of interviews for Fed chair candidates this week, with White House National Economic Council Director Hassett competing with three other candidates. According to three senior officials, Trump and Treasury Secretary Besant are scheduled to interview former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. While some Wall Street investors worry Hassett’s close ties to Trump could make him too aggressive with rate cuts, he remains the frontrunner to replace Powell next May. However, the decision to continue additional interviews suggests Hassett is not a lock. Officials also mentioned the possibility of Hassett serving a shortened term. Besant has submitted a list of four names to the White House, including Hassett and Warsh. The other two candidates will be picked from the “other finalists” list, which includes Fed Governor Waller, Fed Governor Bowman, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.
▌Trump: Will Meet with “Several” Fed Chair Candidates, Already Has a Favorite
President Trump said Tuesday he will meet with “several” candidates to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Pennsylvania, Trump said, “I will consider a few different people, but I already know very clearly who I want.”
▌Man Group: If Market Questions New Chair, Fed May Need to Restart QE
Man Group said that if the bond market starts to doubt the independence of the next Fed chair, the Fed may have to resort to quantitative easing (QE) to lower long-term borrowing costs. As the world’s largest publicly listed hedge fund, Man Group’s Chief Market Strategist Kristina Hooper pointed out that investors should recall what happened in the UK in 2022: then-PM Liz Truss’s economic policies triggered a massive sell-off of UK government bonds due to lack of confidence. Hooper wrote on LinkedIn that since then, UK borrowing costs have remained higher than many other G7 economies, reminding us that “the credibility of public officials is crucial.” She added: “If someone perceived as insufficiently independent is appointed Fed Chair, and focuses on lowering long-term rates, I suspect they will have to resort to QE, as it’s the best opportunity to achieve that goal.”
▌Probability of a 25 bps Fed Rate Cut This Week is 87.6%
According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December is 87.6%, with a 12.4% chance of no change. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 69.3%, 9.3% for no change, and 21.3% for a cumulative 50 basis point cut.
Jinse Encyclopedia
▌How a Weak US Labor Market Puts Pressure on Crypto Prices
After hitting a new high in October, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain gains since late November. Meanwhile, the US labor market has visibly cooled. The US unemployment rate has climbed to around 4%, the highest in recent years. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) show monthly nonfarm payroll growth has slowed from post-pandemic levels to more moderate six-digit increases. Job openings and quits have also dropped from their 2021-2022 peaks. Changes in the labor market affect risk appetite and liquidity conditions, which are often reflected in Bitcoin and broader crypto price trends. If labor market data remains stable while inflation stays high, investors may infer that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. If unemployment rises and nonfarm payroll growth slows, the case for rate cuts strengthens.
Today, crypto trades within the same ecosystem. When strategists discuss the labor market’s pressure on Bitcoin and crypto, they typically describe two overlapping channels. The first is the growth channel: rising unemployment, slowed hiring, and weak wage growth make markets more cautious about future earnings and default risk. In this environment, investors usually cut the riskiest parts of their portfolios—such as small caps, Bitcoin, and volatile altcoins. The second is the liquidity and interest rate channel: similarly weak economic data can spark investor panic and prompt central banks to ease monetary policy. For Bitcoin and crypto, the key is that a weak labor market means lower prices, and labor data helps forecast macro trends. These data affect growth outlooks, interest rate paths, and liquidity, which in turn influence investors’ willingness to take risk.
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BITW Crypto Fund Trades on NYSE; Securitize Plans to Go Public via SPAC
Headlines
▌Bitwise’s Crypto Index Fund BITW to Trade on NYSE Arca
Crypto asset management firm Bitwise Asset Management announced that its crypto index fund—the Bitwise 10 Crypto Index ETF (BITW)—will be upgraded to the NYSE Arca market as an exchange-traded product. BITW, which was first launched in 2017, is the first crypto index fund designed to track the Bitwise 10 Large Cap Crypto Index, providing investors with broad and diversified exposure to the cryptocurrency market. The fund holds the 10 largest crypto assets by market cap, with active screening and monthly rebalancing. Under its new ETP structure, BITW will allocate 90% of its holdings to crypto assets currently held by existing single-token ETPs—currently including Bitcoin, Ethereum, Solana, and XRP—and will cap the total weight of all other crypto assets at 10%. If other crypto assets receive the same regulatory approval as BTC, ETH, SOL, and XRP, BITW will be able to include them in the 90% holdings category. Upon listing, BITW’s holdings in the following 10 crypto assets were weighted as follows: Bitcoin: 74.34%; ETH: 15.55%; XRP: 5.17%; Solana (SOL): 3.07%; Cardano (ADA): 0.65%; Chainlink (LINK): 0.39%; Litecoin (LTC): 0.26%; Avalanche (AVAX): 0.24%; Sui: 0.24%; Polkadot (DOT): 0.14%.
▌Securitize Appoints Former PayPal Executive as General Counsel, Preparing for SPAC Listing
Asset tokenization company Securitize has announced the hiring of former PayPal Head of Digital Assets Legal, Jerome Roche, as General Counsel, as the company prepares to go public via a Cantor Fitzgerald-backed SPAC on Nasdaq. The merger is expected to give Securitize a $1.25 billion valuation, trading under the ticker SECZ. Securitize plans to tokenize its own equity and is the issuer of BlackRock’s on-chain Treasury fund BUIDL. Roche stated his professional focus is “the intersection of compliance regulation and technological innovation.”
Market
As of press time, according to CoinGecko:
BTC price is $92,895.22, 24h change +2.4%;
ETH price is $3,329.38, 24h change +6.5%;
BNB price is $901.50, 24h change +0.3%;
SOL price is $138.58, 24h change +4.0%;
DOGE price is $0.1485, 24h change +4.3%;
XRP price is $2.11, 24h change +1.8%;
TRX price is $0.2824, 24h change +0.3%;
WLFI price is $0.1515, 24h change +0.8%;
HYPE price is $27.98, 24h change -4.9%.
Policy
▌US OCC Confirms Banks Can Engage in Riskless Principal Crypto Asset Trading
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency ((OCC)) today issued Interpretive Letter 1188, confirming that national banks may engage in permissible banking activities related to riskless principal crypto asset trading. Such transactions involve a bank acting as principal in a crypto asset trade with one customer while entering into an offsetting transaction with another customer. The bank acts as an intermediary, does not hold crypto asset inventory, and operates in a broker-like agency capacity. As with any activity, national banks must conduct these activities in a safe and sound manner and comply with applicable laws.
▌EU Plans to Launch Capital Market Integration Reform by 2027, Crypto Firms to Be Regulated by ESMA
EU Financial Services Commissioner Maria Luís Albuquerque said on Tuesday that the EU aims to begin implementing its capital market integration reform package by 2027, providing the first indication of the reform’s timeline. “We should push for discussion and approval of this package as soon as possible. Ideally, if it could be implemented in 2027, that would be ideal.” Last week, the European Commission announced plans to grant its market regulator, the European Securities and Markets Authority (ESMA), greater oversight and enforcement powers as part of measures to integrate fragmented capital markets. The proposal still requires approval from the European Parliament and the EU Council, with some member states strongly opposed. Centralizing regulatory authority will bring key clearing houses, central securities depositories, and trading platforms under ESMA’s jurisdiction, and crypto companies will also be regulated by ESMA. The EU has also pledged a comprehensive review of banking regulations by the end of next year, and the ECB will announce proposals to streamline bank supervision on Thursday, which will be included in the Commission’s overall reform effort.
Blockchain Applications
▌MetaMask Launches Perpetual Contracts Feature, Supports Multiple US Stocks and Stock Market Trading
MetaMask wallet’s mobile app now supports long and short trading for multiple US stocks and other stock market assets. The perpetual contract trading service has officially launched on MetaMask’s mobile app, with technical support from the Hyperliquid protocol. The newly redesigned mobile interface is tailored for traders, allowing users to open perpetual contract positions within seconds. MetaMask also announced that users can now fund their perpetual contract accounts with any token on any Ethereum Virtual Machine (EVM)-compatible chain and can directly go long or short on over 150 tokens, US stocks, and other stock market assets from their mobile devices. MetaMask emphasized in its update that this service does not require a centralized exchange or extra connection to a decentralized application (DApp).
▌Polymarket CEO: Currently Operating at a Loss, Expanding Market Share is Top Priority
Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan told AXIOS that Polymarket is currently operating at a loss. “It’s not that we dislike money, but our priority is to create a completely new market and expand it as much as possible—gaining the largest possible market share is the top priority.” Every prediction market actually has a spread, similar to sports betting; users don’t appear to pay a fee, but they do pay the spread. However, on Polymarket, the spread is not taken by the platform but distributed to liquidity providers, earned by those placing orders.
▌RWA Platform Real Finance Raises $29 Million
Real world asset ((RWA)) tokenization network Real Finance has raised $29 million in private funding to build the infrastructure layer for RWA, aiming to make tokenized assets easier for institutions to adopt. This round includes a $25 million capital commitment from digital asset investment firm Nimbus Capital, with Magnus Capital and Frekaz Group also participating. Real Finance said the funds will be used to expand its compliance and operational infrastructure to develop a full-stack RWA platform.
Cryptocurrency
▌Circle Partners with Aleo to Launch Bank-Grade Privacy Stablecoin USDCx
Circle and Aleo blockchain announced the launch of privacy-enhanced stablecoin USDCx. The stablecoin will provide users with “bank-grade privacy,” making transaction data invisible to the public while retaining compliance records for regulatory review.
▌Singapore Exchange Bitcoin and Ethereum Perpetual Futures Volume Reaches $250 Million
Since their launch two weeks ago, Singapore Exchange ((SGX)) Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures have achieved cumulative trading volume of $250 million. SGX President Michael Syn said these products attract new liquidity rather than funds shifting from other exchanges. Institutional investors mainly use these regulated contracts for spot-futures arbitrage, not just going long. Unlike unregulated markets, SGX adopts a more conservative margin management approach to avoid high-leverage auto-liquidations. The exchange aims to establish its BTC/ETH perpetual futures as benchmark contracts for the Asia trading session, providing reliable pricing and liquidity references for regional investors.
▌Cathie Wood: Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Will Be Broken; We May Have Seen the Bottom
ARK Invest founder Cathie Wood said that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle will be broken, and we may have already seen the lowest point in the current cycle.
▌Standard Chartered Cuts 2025 Bitcoin Price Forecast to $100,000
Standard Chartered said in a report Tuesday that it has halved its 2025 Bitcoin price forecast to $100,000. The bank also postponed its long-term $500,000 target to 2030 from the original 2028. Analyst Geoffrey Kendrick pointed out that the downgrade is due to revised demand expectations, noting that aggressive corporate buying by entities like MicroStrategy has “ended,” and institutional adoption via ETFs has been slower than expected. Kendrick said future Bitcoin price increases will be “driven solely by ETF purchases.” Currently, Bitcoin’s quarterly ETF inflows have dropped to 50,000 BTC, the lowest since US spot Bitcoin ETFs launched. By contrast, in Q4 2024, quarterly ETF and digital asset treasury purchases totaled 450,000 BTC.
▌Ethereum Foundation-Linked Address Deposits 5,748 ETH to Kraken
According to Lookonchain, address 0x9D1c deposited 5,748 ETH (about $17.89 million) to Kraken about 50 minutes ago. On-chain tracking shows this ETH originally came from the Ethereum Foundation.
▌Yi Lihua: Remains Bullish on ETH Since Going All-In
Liquid Capital (formerly LD Capital) founder Yi Lihua posted on social media: “ETH has broken above $3,300; I’ve remained bullish since going all-in. Investing is always the hardest thing—it tests not just your mindset but also your understanding. Be greedy when others are fearful: easier said than done.”
▌Bitcoin Miner IREN Completes $2.3 Billion Convertible Senior Notes Offering
Bitcoin miner IREN (IREN) completed a refinancing transaction, including a $2.3 billion convertible senior notes issuance and $544.3 million in existing convertible bond repurchases. The new bonds include: $1 billion 0.25% notes due 2032; $1 billion 1% notes due 2033; an additional $300 million greenshoe fully exercised to meet extra demand. IREN also executed capped call transactions to hedge equity dilution from bond conversion and provide protection at an initial price of $82.24 per share. The announcement said, except for standard terms related to significant changes, the notes contain no investor put rights.
▌Coinbase to List Humidifi (WET)
Coinbase will list Humidifi (WET). If liquidity conditions are met and trading is supported in your region, the WET-USD pair will be available.
▌Coinbase to List Hyperlane (HYPER)
Coinbase will list Hyperlane (HYPER). If liquidity conditions are met and trading is supported in your region, HYPER-USD trading will be available.
Key Economic Developments
▌Hassett: Fed Has Plenty of Room for Aggressive Rate Cuts
Top Fed chair contender and White House National Economic Council Director Hassett said Tuesday that he believes the Fed has “plenty of room” for aggressive rate cuts. When asked if he would push for the “big rate cuts” Trump wants if appointed, he replied: “If the data shows we can—like now—I think there’s absolutely room.” Pressed further if this meant cuts greater than 25 basis points, he answered: “That’s right.” Trump told Politico Tuesday that rapid rate cuts will be a “litmus test” for his Fed chair pick. Asked whether his loyalty as chair would be to Trump or to independent economic judgment, Hassett said: “I will stick to my judgment, and I believe the president trusts my judgment.”
▌Trump to Begin Final Round of Fed Chair Interviews This Week
President Trump will begin the final round of interviews for Fed chair candidates this week, with White House National Economic Council Director Hassett competing with three other candidates. According to three senior officials, Trump and Treasury Secretary Besant are scheduled to interview former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh on Wednesday. While some Wall Street investors worry Hassett’s close ties to Trump could make him too aggressive with rate cuts, he remains the frontrunner to replace Powell next May. However, the decision to continue additional interviews suggests Hassett is not a lock. Officials also mentioned the possibility of Hassett serving a shortened term. Besant has submitted a list of four names to the White House, including Hassett and Warsh. The other two candidates will be picked from the “other finalists” list, which includes Fed Governor Waller, Fed Governor Bowman, and BlackRock’s Rick Rieder.
▌Trump: Will Meet with “Several” Fed Chair Candidates, Already Has a Favorite
President Trump said Tuesday he will meet with “several” candidates to replace Jerome Powell as Fed Chair. Speaking to reporters aboard Air Force One en route to Pennsylvania, Trump said, “I will consider a few different people, but I already know very clearly who I want.”
▌Man Group: If Market Questions New Chair, Fed May Need to Restart QE
Man Group said that if the bond market starts to doubt the independence of the next Fed chair, the Fed may have to resort to quantitative easing (QE) to lower long-term borrowing costs. As the world’s largest publicly listed hedge fund, Man Group’s Chief Market Strategist Kristina Hooper pointed out that investors should recall what happened in the UK in 2022: then-PM Liz Truss’s economic policies triggered a massive sell-off of UK government bonds due to lack of confidence. Hooper wrote on LinkedIn that since then, UK borrowing costs have remained higher than many other G7 economies, reminding us that “the credibility of public officials is crucial.” She added: “If someone perceived as insufficiently independent is appointed Fed Chair, and focuses on lowering long-term rates, I suspect they will have to resort to QE, as it’s the best opportunity to achieve that goal.”
▌Probability of a 25 bps Fed Rate Cut This Week is 87.6%
According to CME “FedWatch”: the probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate cut in December is 87.6%, with a 12.4% chance of no change. By January next year, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point cut is 69.3%, 9.3% for no change, and 21.3% for a cumulative 50 basis point cut.
Jinse Encyclopedia
▌How a Weak US Labor Market Puts Pressure on Crypto Prices
After hitting a new high in October, Bitcoin has struggled to sustain gains since late November. Meanwhile, the US labor market has visibly cooled. The US unemployment rate has climbed to around 4%, the highest in recent years. Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) and Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) show monthly nonfarm payroll growth has slowed from post-pandemic levels to more moderate six-digit increases. Job openings and quits have also dropped from their 2021-2022 peaks. Changes in the labor market affect risk appetite and liquidity conditions, which are often reflected in Bitcoin and broader crypto price trends. If labor market data remains stable while inflation stays high, investors may infer that interest rates will remain elevated for longer. If unemployment rises and nonfarm payroll growth slows, the case for rate cuts strengthens.
Today, crypto trades within the same ecosystem. When strategists discuss the labor market’s pressure on Bitcoin and crypto, they typically describe two overlapping channels. The first is the growth channel: rising unemployment, slowed hiring, and weak wage growth make markets more cautious about future earnings and default risk. In this environment, investors usually cut the riskiest parts of their portfolios—such as small caps, Bitcoin, and volatile altcoins. The second is the liquidity and interest rate channel: similarly weak economic data can spark investor panic and prompt central banks to ease monetary policy. For Bitcoin and crypto, the key is that a weak labor market means lower prices, and labor data helps forecast macro trends. These data affect growth outlooks, interest rate paths, and liquidity, which in turn influence investors’ willingness to take risk.