JPMorgan Says Crypto Winters May Be Over

Bitcoin’s November dip to $81K marked a 9% YTD drop but was viewed as corrective, not the start of a crypto winter.

Stablecoins grew for the 17th month, indicating resilience amid broader market contraction in spot and derivatives.

Analysts note traditional Bitcoin cycles are shifting, with reduced retracement risk due to ETF flows and institutional demand.

JPMorgan analysts reported on Tuesday that Bitcoin’s sharp retreat to $81,000 in November did not mark the start of a new crypto winter. The assessment came after the team reviewed market performance over the past month and evaluated price behavior across major assets. The analysts explained that the market’s recent pullback reflected adjustment rather than structural decline with Bitcoin trading near $93,000 at the time of writing.

Analysts Review November’s Market Pullback

According to JPMorgan, the November decline pushed Bitcoin to levels 9% below its January starting point, creating its first year-over-year drop since May 2023. The bank noted that the downturn followed a brief period of elevated prices that emerged after the 2024 U.S. election, which saw President Donald Trump re-elected

Market caps across several tokens then contracted by more than 20%, while trading activity softened. However, the analysts noted the dip remained within normal corrective ranges. They added that as of Tuesday, Bitcoin traded about 1.5% below $93,000

This context led them to classify the recent retreat as meaningful but not disruptive. The team also pointed to falling volumes as part of broader repositioning rather than deeper weakness.

Stablecoins Show Seventeenth Month of Expansion

JPMorgan emphasized the continued growth of stablecoins during the market slowdown. The sector expanded for a seventeenth straight month, which the analysts described as evidence of resilience within a portion of the digital asset ecosystem

This trend stood out against the broader contraction across spot and derivatives markets. The bank stated that these patterns indicated a market adjusting after a sentiment-driven surge earlier in the year

They also mentioned that stable demand in this segment supported the view that the ecosystem had not entered a prolonged downturn. These observations formed part of the argument that the structure remained intact.

Banks Identify Shifts in Bitcoin’s Historic Cycles

JPMorgan’s note also addressed Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle pattern. Analysts wrote that the cycle appeared to weaken as ETF flows and investor behavior evolved. They stated that deep retracements associated with past halvings looked less likely under the current structure, which includes broader institutional participation.

Standard Chartered shared similar views in a separate report released Tuesday. Geoffrey Kendrick, the bank’s head of digital assets, cited expectations of looser Federal Reserve policy and noted that inflows into Bitcoin ETFs had slowed. He stated that “crypto winters may be a thing of the past,” echoing JPMorgan’s position.

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