Pantera Partner's 2026 Nine Predictions: RWA Soaring and Institutional Expansion

Author: Paul Veradittakit, Managing Partner at Pantera Capital; Translation: Shaw Golden Finance

Review of 2025 Predictions

Before sharing my forecasts for 2026, I want to review the eight predictions I made for 2025 to assess their accuracy.

Based on my own predictions for 2025, I assigned subjective scores ranging from 1 (least accurate) to 5 (most accurate). The results are fairly evenly distributed, with two predictions each receiving scores of 2, 3, 4, and 5, and none scoring 1.

#1 RWA Growth

Forecast: By the end of 2025, real-world assets (RWA) excluding stablecoins will account for 30% of the total locked value (TVL) on-chain.

Score: 3/5

When I made this prediction, RWA (excluding stablecoins) accounted for 15% of on-chain TVL, valued at $13.7 billion. As of December 15, 2025, with DeFi TVL at $118 billion, RWA’s share reached approximately 16%, or $16.6 billion. Therefore, despite expansion in the RWA sector, its proportion of on-chain TVL remained relatively stable. Major categories include:

• Tokenized collectibles: $8.7 billion
• Tokenized commodities: $3.2 billion
• Tokenized private credit: $2.4 billion
• Tokenized institutional funds: $2.4 billion

#2 Bitcoin-Fi

Forecast: 1% of Bitcoin will participate in Bitcoin-Fi.

Score: 4/5

In this case, I actually underestimated the participation rate. As of December 13, the total share of Bitcoin-Fi accounts for 1.4% of the 19.9 million Bitcoin supply. The early liquidity staking market for Bitcoin is currently valued at $2.5 billion. Related projects include Babylon, Lombard, Arch Network, and Mezo.

Another application scenario is lending, with Ledn, Unchained, and Coinbase expected to complete over $1 billion in Bitcoin-backed loans each by 2025. Key developments include Babylon’s partnership with Aave, the tBTC lending market, and the Stacks ecosystem supported by ALEX Lab, Zest Protocol, and other applications.

#3 Fintech Companies as Cryptocurrency Gateways

Forecast: Fintech companies will become increasingly popular and may rival smaller centralized exchanges in crypto holdings.

Score: 5/5

In 2025, fintech companies initially competed with smaller centralized exchanges and then surpassed them. According to company reports, Robinhood’s market cap reached $51 billion, exceeding that of mid-sized centralized exchanges, while Bitfinex’s market cap was only $20.7 billion, relatively smaller. This shift reflects the structural advantages of fintech firms in user acquisition, regulatory positioning, and integrated financial services.

#4 Unichain L2 Dominance

Forecast: Unichain will become the leading L2 blockchain in terms of trading volume.

Score: 2/5

Looking at December’s L2 funding, Unichain ranks sixth with a total of $260 million. Ahead of Unichain are:

• Arbitrum One: $17.29 billion
• Base Chain: $12.11 billion
• OP Mainnet: $2.24 billion
• Starknet: $752.57 million
• Ink: $396.63 million

#5 Revival of NFT Application-Specific Fields

Forecast: Flexibility is the strength of NFTs (Non-Fungible Tokens). Their use cases will continue to increase.

Score: 2/5

In 2025, the types of NFT applications grew across various fields, but overall, NFT adoption still faced resistance. Initially used mainly for speculative art, now practical applications include:

• Gaming (market size $540 billion), e.g., “Dyplans World,” “Pixels,” and “Seraph.”
• Ticketing markets (market size $1.1 billion), e.g., OPEN Ticketing Ecosystem, GUTS Tickets, and SeatlabNFT.
• RWA tokenization, e.g., Propy, RealT, and Lofty.
• Ethereum Name Service (ENS), Lens Protocol, and Galxe for decentralized identity systems.

Active wallets reached 2.1 million in Q3, with user engagement significantly up—average NFTs per wallet increased from 4.2 in Q1 to 8.4.

( #6 Launch of Staking Protocols

Forecast: Re-staking protocols like Eigenlayer, Symbiotic, and Karak will eventually launch their tokens, paying operators AVS and confiscation rewards.

Score: 3/5

Re-staking in the expected examples has not been as widespread as anticipated; instead, some major re-staking protocols have expanded into adjacent business areas.

EigenLayer/EigenCloud activated their penalty mechanisms on April 17, 2025, and are now fully operational. In fall of the same year, they launched EigenAI and EigenCompute on mainnet, expanding into AI/computation workloads beyond infrastructure. Meanwhile, Symbiotic has expanded into insurance, but most re-staking protocols have yet to launch due to TVL declines.

) #7 zkTLS Trend

Forecast: zkTLS will bring off-chain data on-chain, providing new use cases for data verification in DeFi, fintech, and various industries.

Score: 5/5

Several zkTLS products are already in practical implementation, including:

• TransCrypts launched in 2024 for income and identity verification.
• Accountable launched in May 2025 to verify financial data between counterparties.
• Earnifi launched in 2025 to improve EWA underwriting.
• DaisyApp launched in 2025 for verifiable influencer marketing and attribution.
• 3Jane is in internal testing for asset and identity verification to underwrite unsecured loans.
• EarnOS aims to verify user acquisition and attribution.

We see zkTLS being applied in the verification domain.

#8 Creating a Favorable Regulatory Environment

Forecast: We will see a gradual decrease in SEC lawsuits, a clear definition of cryptocurrency as a specific asset class, and considerations around taxation.

Score: 5/5

This forecast is divided into three parts, with the following accuracy:

First, the SEC concluded several major lawsuits in 2025, including cases against Ripple, Binance, Coinbase, and Kraken. Except for Ripple, all other cases ended with no fines; Ripple was ultimately fined $125 million.

Significant progress was made in regulation in 2025, but there was no clear definition of cryptocurrency as a specific asset class. The Digital Asset Market Clarity Act was passed by the House in July and is now under Senate review. The bill grants the CFTC jurisdiction over decentralized tokens and SEC jurisdiction over centralized/investment tokens. Meanwhile, the SEC issued a preliminary, non-binding token classification standard in November.

The third part of the forecast, clear tax guidance, was close but ultimately not realized. While the basic definition of digital assets as property requiring capital gains and ordinary income rules was clarified, some ambiguities remain in areas like DeFi broker reporting and non-custodial trading. Progress includes: mandatory broker reporting phased in this year; the staking safe harbor established in November for publicly traded trusts/ETFs; and ongoing developments in stablecoin regulation following the enactment of the GENIUS Act.

Additionally, in 2025, the US appointed a cryptocurrency commissioner, created a Bitcoin strategic reserve, established a digital asset working group, and elected an SEC chair embracing innovation.

Top Nine Predictions for the Cryptocurrency Industry in 2026

#1 RWA Soaring

As of December 15, 2025, RWAs account for about 14% of the $118 billion DeFi TVL, or approximately $16.6 billion.

Forecast:

• Government bonds and private credit could at least double.
• When the SEC’s “Project Crypto” “Innovation Exemption” is expected to launch, tokenized stocks and equity may grow faster.
• An unexpected sector (e.g., carbon credits, mining rights, or energy projects) will rapidly emerge. This sector may feature liquidity fragmentation, uneven global distribution, and lack of standards, with blockchain-based markets helping to address these issues.

#2 AI-Driven On-Chain Security Innovation

AI security and blockchain development tools are becoming increasingly powerful. Real-time fraud detection, Bitcoin transaction tagging with 95% accuracy, and instant smart contract debugging are now available, capable of detecting millions of vulnerabilities in blockchain code.

Forecast: By 2026, on-chain intelligence will undergo a major transformation, with deterministic, verifiable rules replacing smart contract-based governance. Applications will scan code nearly in real-time, instantly identify logical flaws and attacks, and provide immediate debugging feedback. The next unicorn will be an innovative on-chain security company that will enhance security by a hundredfold.

#3 Prediction Markets as Acquisition Targets

In the first ten months of 2025, prediction markets traded $28 billion, with the sector consolidating around institutional infrastructure. The week of October 20 saw a record $2.3 billion in trading volume.

Forecast: Over $1 billion acquisitions will occur within this sector, but not involving Polymarket or Kalshi. Successful platforms will build underlying liquidity rails, incorporate market discovery intelligence, and be able to identify hidden funds and their reasons. The focus will be on empowering users with instant access to hidden pools, smarter routing, and prediction order flow.

Platforms like DraftKings and FanDuel, focused on sports, have gone mainstream, partnering with media to offer real-time odds. Emerging sports-focused platforms like NoVig will expand vertically, and more startups will emerge in the Asia-Pacific region, which is a key area of interest.

#4 AI as Your Personal Crypto Assistant

As systems mature, consumer AI platforms will see explosive growth, providing personalized experiences tailored to individual needs. Seamless integration will make advanced AI easier to use, transforming user experience from clunky to instant response.

Forecast: By 2026, platforms like Surf.ai will attract a broad user base—from crypto enthusiasts to active traders—using intuitive, advanced AI models, proprietary encrypted datasets, and multi-step workflow agents. With cutting-edge technology and user-friendly design, Surf will become the preferred crypto research tool, delivering real-time, on-chain data-driven market insights at speeds four times faster than competitors.

#5 Major Banks Poised: G7-Linked Stablecoins Coming Soon

Ten large banks are in early stages of exploring issuance of stablecoins pegged to G7 currencies. These financial institutions are evaluating whether industry-wide stablecoins can offer the benefits of digital currencies in a compliant and risk-managed manner for individuals and institutions. Meanwhile, ten European banks are also researching issuance of euro-pegged stablecoins.

Forecast: An alliance of major banks will issue its own stablecoin (regardless of whether these pilots are realized in 2026 or by other alliances).

#6 Privacy, Payments, Perpetual Contracts: The Three Pillars for Institutions

Privacy tech is booming in the institutional sector, with protocols like Zama and Canton balancing transparency and confidentiality, though retail users have yet to gain sufficient attention or scale. Stablecoin market cap has reached $310 billion, more than doubling since 2023, with 25 consecutive months of growth. Perpetual contracts now account for about 78% of crypto derivatives trading volume, and the gap between perpetuals and spot options continues to widen.

Forecast: In privacy, the gap between institutions and retail will further widen in 2026. Stablecoins could long-term surpass $2 trillion, with at least $500 billion expected next year. The growth momentum of perpetual contracts will continue into 2026.

#7 Institutional Macro Perspective

As of December 15, 2025, 17.867% of Bitcoin is held by publicly traded companies, private firms, ETFs, and governments.

Forecast: 2026 will no longer be a hype or meme era but a time of integration, genuine compliance, and institutional capital flowing in driven by open market liquidity. Cryptocurrency will be integrated into mainstream platforms, upgrading the financial system and challenging existing industry giants.

#8 The Largest Year for Crypto IPOs in History

In 2025, the total number of US IPOs reached 335, a 55% increase over 2024; many are related to cryptocurrencies, including nine blockchain IPOs. This includes native crypto companies like Circle and SPACs with crypto components, such as Bitcoin Infrastructure Acquisition Corp, which went public on December 2, 2025.

Forecast: 2026 will be a bigger year for digital asset listings. Coinbase reports that 76% of companies plan to increase tokenized assets in 2026, with some planning to allocate over 5% of their portfolios to tokenized assets. Morpho Protocol is a typical example, with a TVL reaching $8.6 billion in November 2025.

#9 Digital Asset Treasury (DAT) Accelerates Integration

In 2021, fewer than ten publicly traded companies held Bitcoin. By mid-December, that number had grown to 151, with a total value of $95 billion; including government holdings, the total rises to 164 companies with a combined value of $148 billion.

Forecast: 2026 will see a brutal market shakeout. In each major asset class, only one or two companies will dominate. Aside from a few long-tail firms that manage to catch the wave, others will be acquired or phased out. This trend will also go global, with Japan’s Metaplanet showing strong momentum, indicating that the US will no longer be the sole leader, and the landscape of global DAT treasuries will diversify.