MicroStrategy has once again released the “orange dot” signal. CEO Michael Saylor believes that if Bitcoin holdings reach 7% of the supply, the price could soar to 10 million dollars; however, the stock price's 50% slump, competition for ETFs, and regulatory pressure are testing the limits of this infinite buying machine. (Previous summary: SEC privacy meeting warns: Financial regulations have become a blockchain prison, with the primary focus on safeguarding human rights and technological neutrality) (Background: Nasdaq applies to the SEC for a new 5×23 trading system, with US stock market “never closing” expected to be implemented in the second half of 2026.)

Table of Contents

• The quantitative gambling behind the orange dot
• How the Capital Market Arbitrage Flywheel Drives
• Stock price 50% Slump exposes leverage fragility
• The aftermath of the Trump era?

Michael Saylor posted the “orange dot” chart symbolizing a technical buy point on social media once again on the cold night of December 20, declaring to the market that he has not let go. The CEO of MicroStrategy (MSTR) reiterated in an interview that if the company ultimately accumulates 7% of the total supply of Bitcoin (BTC), the price per coin could potentially reach 10 million dollars; currently, the company holds about 3%, meaning it still needs to acquire over 800,000 coins to meet the target.

The Quantitative Gamble Behind the Orange Dot

Saylor compares Bitcoin to “digital capital,” claiming that it is breaking away from traditional finance at a speed surpassing gold and real estate. He emphasizes that its scarcity can combat inflation and once again proposes a bold model: with a 5% holding, the price could reach 1 million dollars; with a jump to 7%, it could surpass 10 million dollars. This logic is based on “supply shock”—when a large amount of circulating Bitcoin is locked in cold wallets, the market is forced to reprice in a nonlinear way.

“The scarcity of Bitcoin is a financial scalpel that can precisely excise the erosion of wealth caused by inflation.”

Currently, MicroStrategy holds 671,000 Bitcoins with a book value of approximately 60 billion USD, accounting for nearly 3% of the total supply. To reach the 7% threshold, the company must continue to tap into the capital markets and move more BTC out of circulation.

How the Capital Market Arbitrage Flywheel Drives

The core of this flywheel is the cycle of “equity and debt financing → buying coins → NAV premium driving up stock price → refinancing.” According to public data, MicroStrategy spent $963 million on December 12 to increase its holdings by 10,624 BTC. Although the original enterprise software business has turned unprofitable, the company has obtained relatively cheap funds through issuing new shares and convertible bonds, and then invested that capital into physical Bitcoin. For the entire year of 2025, its Bitcoin yield remains in the range of 22%–26%, supporting the narrative of an “infinite buying machine.”

Stock price 50% Slump exposes leverage weakness

However, when market sentiment cools, the flywheel may also lose momentum. MSTR's stock price has fallen about 60% from its July peak, and the premium has significantly contracted, indicating that ETFs and other channels are undermining its uniqueness as a BTC proxy. The uncertainty of the MSCI index inclusion and regulatory variables such as the CLARITY Act have intensified investor concerns. The company even rarely sold a small amount of BTC to adjust operations, indicating that high-leverage strategies are not without limits.

The reduction in stock price not only affects market value but also increases future refinancing costs; if the premium continues to narrow, the flywheel may get stuck. As a result, the market has begun to examine: under a long-term bullish scenario, can MicroStrategy withstand short-term liquidity pressure?

Follow-up to the Trump era?

MicroStrategy is currently at the center of the tension between accumulation and selling. If Saylor wants to validate the prophecy of 10 million dollars, he must first ensure that the flywheel does not come to a halt due to leverage breaking in an environment of stock price fluctuations and rising financing costs. The orange dot has certainly lit up again, but the market is also aware that enthusiasm and feasibility often only differ by one liquidity crisis.

In the short term, Saylor's quantitative model and policy direction inject imagination into Bitcoin; in the long term, whether MicroStrategy can become the trigger for a “supply shock” depends on its control over its own financial structure. When the next orange signal lights up, Wall Street will care not only about how many coins have been bought, but also whether this infinite buying machine can continue to operate.