Trump's tariff turmoil continues: Five key measures may determine Bitcoin's fate in 2026

As 2026 approaches, the Bitcoin market faces a clear macro risk: the tariffs agenda of U.S. President Donald Trump. Looking back at 2025, the cryptocurrency market has already experienced profound impacts from tariff headlines on prices, with effects comparable to ETF capital flows. This article delves into the five major tariff risks looming over 2026, including the 100% tariff cliff against China, global baseline tariff hikes, retaliatory digital service taxes on Europe, potential drug tariffs up to 200%, and expanded secondary tariffs based on sanctions trade.

Each of these measures could rapidly reverse market liquidity and risk sentiment, bringing significant uncertainty to Bitcoin’s trajectory. Historical data shows that tariff escalations in 2025 repeatedly triggered widespread sell-offs, with single-day liquidations reaching as high as $19 billion, and the market has yet to fully recover. Investors need to closely monitor these policy developments to prepare for potential market storms.

2025 Review: How Tariff Headlines Dominated the Cryptocurrency Market Pulse

To understand the future, we must first review the past. In 2025, Trump’s tariff policies became one of the most important macro narratives in the crypto market, with resulting volatility providing a vivid lesson for investors. Unlike traditional macroeconomic data releases, tariff announcements are often sudden, directly impacting global trade and growth expectations, which then quickly transmit to the highly liquidity-sensitive crypto markets. This pattern indicates that digital assets like Bitcoin are no longer isolated risk assets; their price behavior is increasingly linked to global macro sentiment and liquidity.

The first intense market reaction occurred in early February. When Trump announced new tariffs on Mexico, Canada, and China, Bitcoin dropped to a three-week low, approaching $91,400. Ethereum fell about 25% over three days, while many mainstream tokens declined over 20% in a single day, prompting traders to urgently reduce risk exposure. This clearly demonstrated that during panic periods, the correlation between crypto assets and traditional risk assets (like stocks) intensifies, and expectations of liquidity tightening drive capital out of high-risk sectors.

Subsequently, the April “Liberation Day” tariff shock and the escalation of US-China trade friction saw Bitcoin briefly fall below $82,000, along with a sell-off in crypto-related stocks. However, resilience was also evident during this period. Once the White House signaled a possible suspension of tariffs, cryptocurrencies rebounded quickly. By May, with a temporary US-China tariff truce, Bitcoin surged back above $100,000, and ETH also jumped significantly. This “bad news is good news” rebound pattern shows that markets not only price in negative news but also hold expectations for policy easing, creating opportunities for swing traders.

However, the most severe stress test occurred in October 2025. Trump proposed a 100% tariff on Chinese imports amid a rare earths dispute, triggering a lightning-fast market crash. Bitcoin plunged over 16% during the rapid decline, with major centralized exchanges experiencing forced liquidations totaling up to $19 billion in a single day. The destructive power of this liquidation storm was so great that, as of December 2025, the market had not fully recovered. This event highlighted the fragility of highly leveraged positions during extreme volatility and the brutal mechanism by which tariff news can trigger chain liquidations, amplifying market declines.

Key Market Response Data for Major 2025 Tariff Events

February Tariff Shock

• Bitcoin Low Price: approximately $91,400
• Ethereum 3-day decline: about 25%
• Largest single-day decline in mainstream tokens: >20%

April “Liberation Day” Shock

• Bitcoin Low Price: < $82,000
• Market feature: simultaneous sell-off with crypto concept stocks

May Tariff Truce Rebound

• Bitcoin rebound high: > $100,000
• Market feature: rapid risk sentiment recovery, capital inflow into digital asset funds

October 100% Tariff Panic

• Bitcoin max single-day drop: >16%
• Single-day total liquidation: $19 billion
• Subsequent impact: market had not fully recovered by end of December

In-Depth Analysis of Five Major Tariff Risks in 2026

Based on 2025 experience, we can better examine the five major tariff risks facing 2026. These potential policies are not only about trade but are key variables influencing global liquidity, inflation expectations, and risk appetite, which will leave their mark on Bitcoin’s chart through complex transmission mechanisms.

Risk One: The Unresolved 100% Tariff Cliff Against China

This policy is undoubtedly one of the most intimidating macro risks for 2026. Its core is to impose a 100% tariff on all Chinese imports unless negotiations reach an agreement. After Trump announced it in October 2025, it was postponed, making late 2026 the new focal point.

If activated, markets will immediately price in a “weaker growth” and “more stubborn inflation” adverse combination. For Bitcoin, the transmission pathways are multifaceted: first, tariffs raise import costs, potentially forcing the Fed to adopt a more cautious stance on rate cuts amid slowing growth, leading to tightening financial conditions. Second, growth concerns will weaken corporate earnings expectations, depress global stock markets, and trigger widespread risk aversion, causing capital to flow out of risk assets like Bitcoin. Finally, increased volatility may trigger margin calls and liquidations, creating a negative feedback loop similar to October 2025. At that point, Bitcoin’s “digital gold” safe-haven narrative may temporarily give way to its “high-risk beta asset” role.

Risk Two: Potential Upward Adjustment of Global Baseline Tariffs

Beyond targeted tariffs, Trump has hinted during the campaign that the 10% comprehensive import tariff implemented in 2025 could be further raised. This is a more universal and far-reaching risk.

Unlike one-off shocks, an increase in baseline tariffs would constitute a sustained, systemic pressure. It would elevate input inflation costs in the US and globally, compress corporate profit margins, and potentially trigger chain retaliations from trade partners. For the Bitcoin market, this means a normalization of volatility environments. Rallies may become choppier and shorter-lived, as any optimism is suppressed by trade frictions; conversely, dips may be bought more cautiously due to macro uncertainty, weakening long-term confidence. Additionally, sensitivity to interest rate expectations will increase, as any hawkish Fed signals driven by inflation pressures could amplify crypto market reactions.

Risk Three: Retaliatory Digital Service Taxes (DST) on Europe

This policy is a retaliatory measure by the US against the EU and others for digital service taxes. Trump warned in 2025 that countries maintaining such taxes would face “substantial” tariffs.

The tense US-EU trade relationship will directly impact global equities and the euro exchange rate. The crypto market initially tends to follow this “risk-off” rhythm. As shown in 2025, such headlines can quickly turn into liquidation-driven declines. If implemented, it could affect not only tech stocks but also financial and manufacturing sectors, leading to broad asset repricing. In this macro uncertainty, Bitcoin will find it hard to remain unaffected in the short term; liquidity tightening expectations will drive capital into traditional safe havens like USD rather than more volatile cryptocurrencies.

Risk Four: Drug Tariffs Up to 200%

This policy targets imported branded or patented drugs, aiming to punish pharmaceutical companies that have not moved production to the US. Trump indicated in 2025 that very high tariffs could be imposed, positioning them as a tool for industry reshoring.

If tariffs rise to 200% in 2026, the core impact is to reinforce inflation expectations. Although Bitcoin is often mentioned as an inflation hedge during inflation fears, traders’ actual behavior tends to be opposite: in initial phases of liquidity tightening due to policy expectations, risk assets are sold first. Drug tariffs directly affect consumer costs and could trigger broader inflation expectations, altering central bank policy forecasts. For Bitcoin, this means a more complex price path—initially pressured by risk asset sell-offs, with potential rebounds depending on whether inflation is perceived as transitory or structural, and how the Fed responds.

Risk Five: Expansion of Secondary Tariffs Based on Sanctions Trade

This is a geopolitically motivated tariff tool aimed at punishing countries that buy oil or goods from US adversaries (e.g., certain oil-producing nations), even if those countries are not direct targets of sanctions. Trump introduced and prominently used this concept in 2025.

If expanded in 2026, it will entangle more countries in crossfire, significantly increasing geopolitical and trade policy uncertainties globally. For Bitcoin, the main channel of impact is volatility. Greater uncertainty generally means wider price swings, more frequent forced liquidations (due to leverage and risk model adjustments), and slower recovery processes (unless new global liquidity injections occur). While this environment may offer opportunities for short-term traders, it poses huge challenges for long-term holders and institutional investors.

Bitcoin as a Macro Risk Asset: Characteristics and Strategies

From the above analysis, it’s clear that tariff policies influence Bitcoin mainly through five core channels: growth, inflation, liquidity, risk sentiment, and volatility. This reveals another deepening aspect of Bitcoin’s maturity: it has become an important macro risk asset. Its price is no longer driven solely by on-chain technology, adoption narratives, or meme culture; the influence of global capital flows and macro policy games is increasingly significant.

Facing potential tariff storms in 2026, investors can consider multi-layered strategies. Tactically, closely monitoring announcements from the USTR, high-level US-China-Europe diplomatic interactions, and key industry developments (like rare earths and pharmaceuticals) can help anticipate risk events. In terms of position management, reducing leverage and increasing margin buffers before major tariff decision windows is a pragmatic approach to avoid a repeat of the October 2025 liquidation wave. On asset allocation, understanding market logic at different stages is crucial: during the initial risk-off phase triggered by tariff fears, cash or short-term government bonds may be safer havens; when markets oversell and policy easing signs emerge, Bitcoin often shows strong resilience and rebound potential.

Basic Principles of How Tariffs Impact Markets

To better grasp the above risks, it’s necessary to briefly review the classic transmission paths of tariff policies on financial markets. This is not unique to crypto but is a universal logic in global capital markets.

First, tariffs directly increase import costs, which are usually passed on to consumers, raising the consumer price index (CPI) and fueling inflation fears. Central banks, especially the Fed, aim primarily to stabilize prices. When inflation becomes more sticky due to tariffs, the likelihood of delaying rate cuts or maintaining high interest rates increases, leading to higher market interest rate expectations and a tightening financial environment.

Second, tariffs are trade barriers that hinder the free flow of goods and services, reducing economic efficiency. When the world’s two largest economies impose high tariffs on each other, global supply chain costs rise, corporate investment and expansion plans are hampered, and global growth prospects weaken. Expectations of slower growth directly depress corporate earnings, leading to re-pricing of risk assets like stocks.

Finally, the combination of these factors—i.e., the risk of “stagflation”—is the most feared scenario. In such a macro environment, sluggish growth limits corporate profits, while high inflation constrains central banks’ ability to stimulate with easing policies. Under this backdrop, valuations of risk assets often face enormous pressure. Although cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin have long-term narratives of hedging fiat devaluation, in the short term, liquidity tightening and risk aversion typically cause correlated declines. History repeatedly shows that during panic “cash is king” moments, most assets tend to move in unison, with correlations approaching 1.

Crypto Market Structure and the Amplification Effect of Leverage

The reason why tariff news can trigger such violent swings in crypto markets, beyond macro transmission, is also due to the market’s unique structure, which acts as an “amplifier.” High leverage and complex derivatives are core factors.

Compared to mature equity markets, crypto markets offer extremely high contract leverage (often 50x, 100x, or more). In calm conditions, this provides high capital efficiency for traders. But when macroeconomic shocks cause rapid price declines, highly leveraged long positions are quickly liquidated. Large-scale forced liquidations generate enormous selling pressure, not based on fundamental analysis but through algorithmic, price-agnostic selling, further depressing prices and triggering more liquidations, creating a vicious cycle. The $19 billion daily liquidation in October 2025 exemplifies this mechanism.

Additionally, the 24/7 trading, relatively sparse regulation, and lack of traditional circuit breakers make negative news impact instant and emotionally extreme across all time zones. Price discovery can become highly volatile. Therefore, understanding how tariffs influence markets requires integrating macro fundamentals with the microstructure of crypto markets. For regulators and mainstream financial institutions, managing systemic crypto risks and preventing leverage-driven crashes from causing broader financial instability is a pressing challenge. For ordinary investors, recognizing this amplification effect is essential for risk management and avoiding being “washed out” in storms.