Pi coin revives on New Year's Eve! Social buzz skyrockets 10 times, Morning Star pattern pushes to $0.22

Pi Network rose nearly 1% on Wednesday, continuing its rebound momentum. Santiment data shows social media influence rising to 0.086%, with retail investor expectations heating up. On the technical side, PI held above the $0.20 support level, forming a Morning Star pattern, with a target at the 50-day EMA of $0.2191. Despite daily trading volume dropping from 38.65 million coins to 8.58 million coins, the rising MACD histogram indicates increasing bullish momentum.

Social media discussion volume surges 10 times, attracting attention

(Source: Santiment)

Santiment data indicates that Pi Network’s social media influence (measuring the proportion of discussions about Pi coin in crypto media) is at 0.086%, up from 0.008% the previous day. This suggests increased social media buzz around Pi coin, potentially signaling a rebound at the start of the new year. Such a roughly 10-fold increase in discussion volume is often associated with price volatility or major events in the crypto space.

The social media influence indicator holds special significance in Pi coin’s price prediction. Pi Network is a highly community-dependent project, with users mainly participating through mobile mining apps. Community activity directly reflects retail confidence. When discussion volume surges, it often indicates community mobilization or anticipation of a catalyst event.

Historically, the price trend of [Pi coin]( and social media activity show a strong correlation. Whenever discussion volume spikes, short-term price fluctuations often follow. The jump from 0.008% to 0.086% may reflect community expectations for the new year’s market or discussions about upcoming mainnet launch and other major events.

However, the sustainability of social media buzz is key. If discussion volume quickly drops back to normal levels in a few days, this rebound may be merely short-term sentiment. Conversely, if discussion remains high and is supported by actual project progress or application deployment, the rebound’s longevity will significantly increase.

) Morning Star pattern emerges, $0.22 becomes primary target

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(Source: Trading View)

Despite multiple failed attempts to rebound, Pi coin remains above $0.20. As of press time, PI rose nearly 1% on Wednesday, combining with the previous day’s doji pattern and Monday’s 1.17% decline, forming a Morning Star pattern. If this pattern completes successfully, the PI price could be pushed up toward the 50-day EMA of $0.2191.

The Morning Star pattern is a classic bottom reversal signal in technical analysis, composed of three candles: a downward candle, a doji or small-bodied candle, and an upward candle. This pattern indicates that after selling pressure is released on the first day, indecision occurs on the second day (doji), and buying momentum begins to recover on the third day. If Pi coin indeed completes this pattern, it will be an important bullish signal.

The 50-day EMA at $0.2191 is a key mid-term trend level. Currently, Pi’s price is around $0.20, only about 9.5% below this resistance. Breaking through this level would confirm a shift from a downtrend to an uptrend, attracting more trend followers.

)# Key technical levels and momentum indicators for Pi coin

Current price: around $0.20, up nearly 1% on Wednesday

Key support: $0.20 (tested multiple times and held), below which look at $0.1919 and $0.1593

Key resistance: 50-day EMA at $0.2191, then $0.25 upon breakout

RSI indicator: 41, neutral to slightly bearish, needs to break above the 50 midline to confirm reversal

MACD indicator: green histogram rising, bullish momentum gradually strengthening

Momentum indicators on the daily chart remain mixed. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 41 points near the midline, indicating neutral to slightly bearish pressure. An RSI below 50 suggests bears still have the upper hand, but at 41, it’s approaching oversold territory. A further decline below 30 followed by a rebound would generate a stronger buy signal.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) shows a stable upward trend, with the green histogram rising, indicating increasing bullish momentum. MACD is a trend-following indicator; when the green bars (representing bullish strength) continue to grow, it often signals further price gains. Although a golden cross has not yet formed, the trend is moving favorably for bulls.

Declining daily trading volume poses potential concern

However, December’s daily trading volume data reveal a potential risk. While volume has generally stayed above 7 million PI daily, it dropped from 38.65 million PI on December 1 to 8.58 million PI on Wednesday. This significant decline suggests decreasing market participation, which could weaken the sustainability of the rebound.

Volume is a key indicator for validating price movements. Rising prices on declining volume are often seen as false breakouts or weak rebounds. Pi coin is currently facing this dilemma: technical signals like the Morning Star pattern and MACD turning bullish are present, but trading volume continues to fall. This divergence hints that, although holders are reluctant to sell below $0.20, new buying interest is limited.

Looking ahead, if Pi falls below the October 11 low of $0.1919, it may test the S2 pivot point at $0.1593. This represents about a 20% decline from current levels. For long-term holders who have endured a prolonged correction, further decline could trigger panic selling.

New Year rally and mainnet expectations create a dual scenario

Pi’s current trend is influenced by multiple factors. Supporting a rebound are: surging social media discussion indicating renewed retail interest; the $0.20 support level holding multiple tests; technical signals like the Morning Star pattern and MACD turning bullish. On the other hand, downside pressures include: sharply declining daily volume indicating low market activity; RSI remaining in neutral to bearish zone; and the absence of clear fundamental catalysts.

The long-anticipated mainnet launch remains the most significant potential catalyst. Once the mainnet is fully open, allowing free trading and transfers, Pi’s liquidity and application scenarios will greatly improve. This expectation may partly explain the recent social media buzz. However, until an official announcement is made, this remains speculative.

For investors considering participation, the current technical setup offers a relatively clear risk management framework: establish long positions near $0.20, set stop-loss below $0.1919, target at $0.2191, with a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:2.4.