2025 Market Wrap-Up: Gold Surges 30%, Silver Rockets 147%, Why Is Bitcoin Dropping Alone?

The last trading day of 2025 concludes with a divergence in global markets: gold achieved its best performance since 1979 with nearly a 30% annual gain, silver surged by 147%, while Bitcoin may record its first annual decline in three years, hovering below the $90,000 mark. This rare divergence completely breaks the market’s traditional narrative that “digital gold” and conventional safe-haven assets move in tandem.

This article will deeply analyze the macro and structural roots behind the divergence of these three major assets, examine gold’s role as a “safe harbor,” silver’s “leveraged gold” characteristics, and the unique challenges Bitcoin faces in liquidity, regulation, and market structure. Based on this, it will forecast key trends for the cryptocurrency and precious metals markets in 2026.

2025 Year-End Overview: When Stocks Slightly Dip, Silver Plunges, and Bitcoin Faces Key Resistance

On December 31, 2025, the global financial markets wrapped up the year amid relatively subdued trading. US stock index futures fell by 0.2%, while the MSCI World Equity Index rose 21% for the year, but momentum waned significantly toward year-end. The most notable volatility came from the precious metals market: silver plummeted 6% on that day, yet this did not diminish its impressive 147% rally for the year; gold remained resilient, preparing for its strongest annual rise since 1979. However, in another arena viewed as a “store of value”—the cryptocurrency market—the scene was starkly different. Bitcoin, after multiple failed attempts to break above $90,000, traded within a narrow range of $85,000 to $95,000, ending the year down about 5%, contrasting sharply with the bullish trend in precious metals.

This divergence is not a sudden event but the culmination of market logic evolution in the entire fourth quarter. Looking back at 2025, the main market theme shifted sharply from “expectations of easing policies under Trump” to “tariff shocks and liquidity tightening.” Early in the year, markets anticipated a pro-cryptocurrency stance during Trump’s second term, boosting risk assets broadly. However, after several unexpected tariff policies in April and October, concerns over global growth and inflation intertwined, prompting a reassessment of what constitutes “safety.” US stocks recovered and hit new highs driven by resilient corporate earnings and enthusiasm for AI. Meanwhile, Bitcoin experienced a historic leverage liquidation on October 10, with over $19 billion in positions forcibly closed, leaving its recovery lagging behind other risk assets.

The liquidity crunch at year-end acts like a magnifying glass, highlighting the core differences among asset classes. Despite fluctuations caused by margin increases, gold and silver’s underlying support remains solid—central banks’ continued purchases and steady physical ETF inflows. Bitcoin, on the other hand, reveals its high dependence on marginal liquidity: in Q4, Bitcoin spot ETF outflows totaled up to $6 billion, and during holiday trading lulls, the lack of new buying pressure made its price extremely sensitive to small sell-offs, resembling a “free fall.” Wintermute strategist Jasper De Maere’s warning is spot on: “Before liquidity normalizes, avoid overinterpreting very short-term signals.” At this moment, Bitcoin is not demonstrating its “digital gold” safe-haven qualities but rather exposing its vulnerability as a high-beta risk asset during liquidity tightening.

Divergence of the “Three Horses”: Decoding the Annual Performance of Gold, Silver, and Bitcoin

For a long time, gold, silver, and Bitcoin have been broadly categorized by investors as “inflation hedges,” “decentralized assets,” or “fiat currency substitutes.” However, the charts at the end of 2025 clearly show that these three are now on different tracks. Gold acts as a stable “anchor,” silver as a leveraged “front-runner,” and Bitcoin more resembles a “sports car” that requires specific fuel (liquidity) to operate at high speed. Understanding why they react differently to the same macro environment is key to predicting the market landscape in 2026.

Gold’s strength is rooted in a perfect macro narrative storm. First, the Fed’s rate-cut cycle reduces the opportunity cost of holding zero-yield gold, and declining real yields directly boost gold’s appeal. Second, geopolitical risks are ongoing, fueling safe-haven buying. More importantly, global central banks have been aggressively accumulating gold reserves for decades to diversify away from dollar assets, providing a structural support for gold prices. Even when technical sell-offs occurred at the end of December due to margin increases, the market generally viewed these as “healthy corrections” within the trend, not the end of a bull market. The approximately 30% rise in gold in 2025 is a strong comeback of its status as the ultimate safe haven.

Silver’s performance is even more dramatic, often seen as an amplified version of gold’s rally. Besides sharing the macro positives of gold (inflation resistance, low interest rates, safe-haven appeal), silver has unique industrial demand drivers. Under the push of green energy transition, electronics manufacturing, and the US’s “critical mineral” strategy, supply-demand fundamentals have tightened. This causes silver to outperform gold during upswings but also to be more volatile during corrections. The 6% single-day plunge at the end of December exemplifies this high volatility—when exchanges raised futures margin requirements, over-leveraged long positions were forced to close, triggering a cascade. Thus, silver is essentially a “macro sentiment amplifier” with high elasticity.

In contrast, Bitcoin’s narrative in 2025 experienced a subtle but crucial shift. The initial “policy-friendly” narrative was suppressed by the reality of “global liquidity tightening” mid-year. The October crash not only wiped out leverage but also exposed a core contradiction: when macro risks are triggered by policy uncertainties (like tariffs), traditional capital tends to flee to proven safe havens like gold rather than the still-exploring, highly volatile Bitcoin. Continuous outflows from Bitcoin spot ETFs indicate institutional investors are reassessing their allocations. Bitcoin is no longer simply “digital gold” negatively correlated with macro risks; its price is increasingly driven by internal crypto market liquidity, derivatives positions, and regulatory news.

Key Asset Performance and Drivers at the End of 2025

Gold: The Classic Safe Haven

• Annual Gain: About 30% (best since 1979)
• Core Drivers: Fed rate cut expectations, declining real yields, geopolitical risks, central bank gold purchases.
• Market Role: Macro hedge anchor, stable trend, dips seen as buying opportunities.

Silver: Leveraged Gold

• Annual Gain: 147%
• Core Drivers: Shared macro logic with gold + industrial demand + supply tightening narratives.
• Market Role: High-volatility “sentiment amplifier,” extremely sensitive to leverage and margin changes.

Bitcoin: Struggling Liquidity-Dependent Asset

• Annual Performance: Down about 5%, roughly 30% retracement from October highs
• Core Pressures: Lack of macro safe-haven capital inflows, ETF outflows totaling $6 billion in Q4, leverage liquidation aftermath, holiday liquidity drought.
• Market Role: Decoupled from traditional macro logic, driven by internal crypto liquidity and risk appetite.

Behind Bitcoin’s Disfavor: Structural Dilemmas and Narrative Crisis

Bitcoin’s weakness at the end of 2025 cannot be simply attributed to market volatility. It reveals deeper structural issues challenging its fundamental value narrative. First, the “transmission chain” between Bitcoin and traditional macroeconomics has broken. When tariffs trigger growth concerns and stagflation risks, traditional capital markets tend to sell stocks and buy bonds and gold. Bitcoin has not been integrated into this classic “safe-haven transmission system.” Instead, due to its high risk profile, it is sold along with stocks, proving that in the eyes of mainstream institutions, it remains a pro-cyclical risk asset rather than an anti-cyclical hedge.

Second, the negative effects of Bitcoin spot ETFs, the “double-edged sword,” are emerging. Since approval in early 2024, ETFs were expected to attract trillions of dollars from traditional markets. However, during 2025’s market turmoil, this channel became a “capital outflow accelerator.” When institutions need to reduce overall risk, they can easily redeem Bitcoin ETFs just like any stock or bond ETF, leading to over $6 billion in withdrawals in Q4. This convenient exit mechanism amplifies selling pressure during downturns, contrasting sharply with gold ETFs, which often see “net inflows” during turbulence. This highlights that Bitcoin, as an emerging asset, still lacks the stability and deep conviction of gold among holders.

Finally, an unavoidable shadow is ongoing regulatory uncertainty. Despite the friendly stance of the Trump administration, the crypto market still faces complex legal challenges and unresolved lawsuits from agencies like the US SEC. This regulatory “gray area” adds extra compliance risk premiums for large institutional holdings. In an environment full of macro uncertainty, capital naturally gravitates toward the most regulated and historically established assets. Gold enjoys this advantage, while Bitcoin still needs to prove itself in the ongoing game. This perceived risk differential directly influences investor asset allocation and risk appetite.

Outlook for 2026: Continued Divergence or Reconciliation?

At the start of 2026, a key question is: will this divergence be permanent or just a temporary deviation? To answer, we must consider how the core variables driving different assets might evolve in 2026.

For gold and silver, their bull narratives still have solid support in the first half of 2026. Expectations of further Fed rate cuts, ongoing geopolitical tensions worldwide, and continued de-dollarization efforts by various central banks are unlikely to disappear easily. Gold is likely to continue acting as a “safe harbor,” with any price corrections caused by strong economic data and fears of rate hikes presenting medium- to long-term entry points. Silver will maintain its high elasticity, potentially outperforming gold during rallies, but investors should be prepared for its double volatility.

Bitcoin’s fate depends on a different set of variables. First and foremost, whether crypto market liquidity can recover—this requires observing whether Bitcoin spot ETF inflows turn positive and whether global risk appetite (especially for tech stocks) rebounds. Second, regulatory progress—clearer legislation or favorable rulings—would reduce institutional hesitation. Lastly, Bitcoin’s network needs to develop beyond the “store of value” narrative, with tangible utility growth through Layer 2 expansion, increased on-chain activity, or new application scenarios.

One possible scenario in 2026 is that, when market fears of economic growth outweigh inflation concerns, and a deep Fed rate cut cycle is anticipated, global liquidity conditions could become extremely loose. Such an environment might simultaneously ignite three markets: gold rising due to falling real yields, US stocks rallying on abundant liquidity and valuation expansion, and Bitcoin rebounding strongly due to its liquidity sensitivity. At that point, the three assets could briefly synchronize gains. However, once risks materialize (e.g., inflation surprises), the capital flow sequence may repeat the 2025 story: first retreating to gold, last leaving Bitcoin.

Therefore, for investors, abandoning the simplistic analogy of “Bitcoin as digital gold” is the top priority for asset allocation in 2026. A more effective framework is to view: gold as the “core defensive allocation” against macro and policy uncertainties; silver as an “enhanced offensive position” based on a confirmed gold bull, with strict position controls to manage volatility; and Bitcoin as a “growth-oriented risk allocation” driven by global liquidity cycles and internal crypto innovation cycles. Their correlations are not fixed but evolve dynamically with the dominant market logic.

Investment Insights: Rebuilding Asset Allocation Mindset in Uncertain Times

The market divergence at the end of 2025 offers a vivid lesson in asset pricing. It shows that superficial narratives (like “all are fiat substitutes”) are far less important than underlying drivers (interest rates, liquidity, regulation, market structure). In the new year, adopting a more differentiated and dynamic allocation strategy is crucial.

For conservative investors, increasing gold’s share in the portfolio can serve as an effective hedge against global political and economic uncertainties. This can be achieved through physical gold bars, gold ETFs, or mining stocks. For those willing to accept higher risk, a smaller allocation of silver on top of gold holdings can seek excess returns during rallies, but with stricter stop-loss discipline to manage its volatility. Cryptocurrency investors should recognize that Bitcoin has entered a new phase: it no longer simply follows macro trends, and its price discovery increasingly depends on the crypto ecosystem’s internal vitality (DeFi, NFTs, on-chain demand) and regulatory clarity. When investing in Bitcoin, focus more on on-chain indicators (active addresses, hash rate, long-term holder changes) and ETF fund flows rather than solely on Federal Reserve meetings.

Ultimately, the lesson of 2025 is that no single asset can hedge all risks. Gold is not suited for capturing tech growth dividends, and Bitcoin cannot serve as a safe haven in every storm. Smart investors will not seek a “universal champion,” but rather build a “toolbox” of assets with different attributes, dynamically adjusting based on market signals. When gold, silver, and Bitcoin no longer move in sync, the opportunities lie precisely in understanding and leveraging this divergence.