Four-year cycle invalidated, 30 institutions bet on the new crypto landscape in 2026

Author: Cathy

At the end of 2025, a rare consensus is emerging among the world’s top financial institutions.

From a16z, Coinbase, Messari to Grayscale, Galaxy Digital, from BlackRock, Fidelity to J.P. Morgan, Standard Chartered, over 30 institutions in their respective 2026 outlook reports are pointing to the same conclusion: the cryptocurrency industry is undergoing a historic transition from “adolescence’s turbulence” to “adulthood’s stability.”

If the 2021-2022 cycle was driven by retail speculation, high leverage, and narrative bubbles, then most institutions believe that 2026 will be a year of substantive growth built on regulatory clarity, macro hedging needs, and technological utility implementation. This phase has a professional name—the “Industrialization Stage.”

However, beneath the consensus, disagreements also lurk. Questions about whether Bitcoin’s volatility will fall below Nvidia’s, whether the threat of quantum computing is imminent, and who will win the AI payment layer war are fiercely contested among top institutions.

So, what exactly will happen in 2026? Where will the money flow? How should ordinary investors respond?

Goodbye to the halving myth, ETFs reshape the game

For a long time, the pulse of the crypto market has followed Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle. But in the 2026 outlook, a disruptive view is emerging: the traditional four-year cycle theory may have already become invalid.

Grayscale, in its “2026 Digital Asset Outlook: Dawn of the Institutional Era,” presents a provocative view: 2026 will officially mark the end of the so-called “four-year cycle” theory. With the proliferation of spot ETFs and the refinement of compliance frameworks, the structure of market participants is fundamentally changing. The intense boom-and-bust cycles driven by retail sentiment and halving narratives are being replaced by systematic capital flows from institutional investors based on asset allocation models.

This sustained, emotionless capital inflow will smooth out extreme market volatility, making the performance of crypto assets more akin to mature macro assets.

Coinbase offers a compelling historical analogy: the current market environment resembles “1996” rather than “1999.” 1996 was an early stage when internet technology began to truly penetrate business and boost productivity, not the eve of a bubble burst. Institutional funds are no longer mercenary short-term arbitrageurs but are entering the market as long-term hedges against fiscal deficits and currency devaluation.

More interestingly, Galaxy Digital’s research head Alex Thorn bluntly states that 2026 might be “a boring year” for Bitcoin. While Bitcoin may still hit new all-time highs, its price behavior will resemble that of mature macro assets like gold.

This “boring” phase is actually a sign of asset maturity, indicating reduced downside risks and broader institutional acceptance. Bitwise also lists “Bitcoin volatility below Nvidia” as one of its top ten predictions for 2026.

Investors trying to rely on historical halving data to predict the future may find their models invalidated in 2026.

Stablecoins and RWA, the certainty of opportunities in 2026

If macro narratives lay the foundation for capital inflows, then upgrades in financial infrastructure determine where the funds go. 2026 is viewed by major institutions as the year when stablecoins and RWA (Real-World Assets) move from concept validation to large-scale commercial use.

Explosive growth of stablecoins

a16z crypto, in its “2026 Major Trends,” defines stablecoins as the future “Internet’s base settlement layer.” They believe stablecoins will completely surpass their current role as intermediaries for trading pairs on exchanges, embedding directly into local payment networks and merchant tools through QR codes, global wallets, and card integrations.

The data is staggering: in 2025, stablecoin transaction volume reached $9 trillion, rivaling Visa and PayPal.

Coinbase’s forecast is even more aggressive. Using a stochastic model, they estimate that by the end of 2028, the total market cap of stablecoins could reach $1.2 trillion, with 2026 being the steepest part of this growth curve. They emphasize new use cases for stablecoins in cross-border settlement, remittances, and payroll platforms.

The Block’s “2026 Digital Asset Outlook” introduces the concept of “Stablechains.” To meet the high throughput and low latency demands of commercial payments, specialized blockchain networks optimized for stablecoin execution and settlement will emerge.

Galaxy Digital predicts market consolidation: although traditional banking giants like Goldman Sachs and Citigroup are exploring issuing their own stablecoins, due to distribution channels and liquidity network effects, the stablecoin market in 2026 will likely consolidate into one or two dominant players. Additionally, Galaxy boldly predicts that stablecoin trading volume will officially surpass the US ACH (Automated Clearing House) system.

RWA’s thousandfold growth

Grayscale forecasts that, driven by regulation and institutions, the tokenized asset market will grow 1000X by 2030.

Coinbase introduces “Tokenization 2.0,” centered on “atomic composability.” By 2026, merely tokenizing government bonds will be insufficient; the real value lies in these tokenized bonds being able to be used as collateral in DeFi protocols instantly, with borrowing-to-value ratios far exceeding traditional margin frameworks.

Pantera Capital’s junior partner Jay Yu predicts that tokenized gold will rise in 2026 to become the dominant asset in the RWA space. As investor concerns over the structural issues of the US dollar intensify, on-chain gold—an asset with both physical attributes and digital liquidity—will experience explosive growth.

When AI agents learn to spend money

By 2026, the integration of artificial intelligence (AI) and blockchain will no longer be just hype around “AI concept coins,” but will enter a deep infrastructure interoperability phase. Institutions agree that blockchain will become the financial backbone for AI agents.

a16z crypto considers the “Agent Economy” as the core idea for 2026. They pose a key question: when AI agents start trading, placing orders, and calling on-chain services autonomously, how do they prove “who I am”? To address this, a16z proposes a new normative standard: “Know Your Agent” (KYA). This could become a prerequisite for AI agents interacting with blockchain, similar to human KYC.

Pantera Capital makes a more concrete prediction: AI-powered business intelligence agents based on the x402 protocol will emerge. x402 is seen as a new payment standard or endpoint, enabling AI agents to perform micropayments and regular payments.

In this field, Pantera favors Solana, believing it will surpass Base chain in “cent-level” transaction volume on x402, becoming the preferred settlement layer for AI agents.

Messari also lists “Crypto x AI” as one of the seven core sectors in its “2026 Crypto Paper.” They envision a future of “Agentic Commerce,” where decentralized infrastructure supports AI model training and execution, creating a market that could reach $30 trillion by 2030.

Grayscale emphasizes blockchain’s role as a “cure” for AI centralization risks. As AI models grow more powerful and are controlled by a few giants, the demand for decentralized computing, data verification, and content authenticity proof will surge.

a16z introduces the concept of “Staked Media.” Facing the proliferation of AI-generated fake content, future content publishers (human or AI) may need to stake capital to endorse their views. If content is proven false or malicious, the staked capital will be confiscated.

Under the surface of consensus

Despite the strong consensus, sharp disagreements exist among institutions on key issues, often sources of excess returns or risks.

Disagreement 1: Explosion vs. Silence

Standard Chartered still maintains a bullish view based on supply-demand tightening. Their 2026 BTC target price is $150,000 (down from $300,000), with a 2027 target of $225,000.

In contrast, Galaxy Digital and Bitwise depict a very different future: a market characterized by volatility compression, stable or even “boring” trends. Galaxy predicts BTC could fluctuate widely between $50,000 and $250,000. If Galaxy is correct, trading strategies that profit from high volatility will become obsolete in 2026, and the market will shift toward earning yields through DeFi and arbitrage.

Disagreement 2: The ghost of quantum computing

Pantera Capital raises a disruptive narrative—“Quantum Panic.” While cracking Bitcoin’s private keys with quantum computers may still take years technically, Pantera believes breakthroughs in error-corrected qubits could occur by 2026, triggering panic selling and forcing the Bitcoin community to urgently discuss quantum-resistant forks.

Coinbase holds the opposite view, considering this just noise in 2026 that won’t impact valuation.

Disagreement 3: The AI payment layer war

In the battle for the AI agent payment layer, Pantera bets confidently on Solana surpassing Base, citing its advantages in low-cost micropayments. Meanwhile, The Block and Coinbase lean toward emphasizing the rise of Stablechains (dedicated stablecoin chains) or Layer 2 ecosystems. This indicates a fierce competition in 2026 over the “AI-native monetary layer.”

The survival rules of the Industrialization Era

Looking at the outlooks from top institutions for 2026, it’s clear that the crypto industry is undergoing a transformation similar to the internet’s shift from 1996 to 2000: from a fringe, ideologically driven experiment to an integral “industrial component” of global finance and technology stacks.

For investors and practitioners, the survival rules in 2026 will change:

Focus on capital flows, not narratives

As the four-year cycle becomes invalid, relying solely on halving narratives will no longer work. Tracking ETF capital flows, stablecoin issuance, and corporate balance sheet allocations will become more critical. BlackRock, as the world’s largest asset manager, highlights the fragility of the US economy and the projected $38 trillion+ federal debt in its 2026 outlook. This macro pressure will push investors and institutions to seek alternative stores of value.

Embrace compliance and privacy

The GENIUS Act is expected to be fully implemented in 2026, providing a federal regulatory framework for payment stablecoins. The emergence of the KYA standard signals the end of the “wild growth” era.

However, both Grayscale and Coinbase keenly observe the return of privacy tech. As institutions enter at scale, they cannot accept exposing business secrets on fully transparent public chains. Privacy solutions based on zero-knowledge proofs and fully homomorphic encryption will become essential. Grayscale even specifically mentions the old privacy coin Zcash (ZEC), which may see a valuation re-evaluation due to this reassessment of “decentralized privacy.”

Seek genuine utility

Whether it’s AI agent automated payments or RWA collateralization, winners in 2026 will be those protocols capable of generating real income and cash flow, not just shell tokens with governance rights.

Delphi Digital defines 2026 as a critical turning point—the divergence and convergence of global central bank policies. Their report predicts that as the Fed ends quantitative tightening (QT) and lowers the federal funds rate below 3%, global liquidity will flood back. Bitcoin, as a liquidity-sensitive inflation hedge, will directly benefit from this macro improvement.

Summary

Looking into 2026 from the end of 2025, what we see is not just cyclical industry fluctuations but a fundamental paradigm shift.

When Fidelity Digital Assets’ VP Chris Kuiper suggests that more countries may include Bitcoin in their foreign exchange reserves in the future, it’s not just an economic decision but a geopolitical game. If a country begins accumulating Bitcoin as a reserve asset, others will face enormous “FOMO” pressure to follow suit to stay competitive.

In 2026, the crypto industry will no longer be “magical internet money,” but an integral part of the world.

Only projects and investors who can find real value in the wave of industrialization, commit to long-term allocation, and embrace compliance and innovation will be able to stand at the starting point of the next decade.