$670 million New Year’s kickoff: TradFi massively increases positions, crypto ETFs fire the first shot in "decoupling"

The first trading day of 2026 saw the US spot crypto ETF market usher in a long-awaited “capital feast.” According to the latest data, on January 2nd, these funds experienced a single-day net inflow of up to $669 million, not only sweeping away the net outflows at the end of 2025 but also setting a new high for single-day inflows in nearly two months.

Among them, Bitcoin ETFs dominated with $471 million in inflows, while Ethereum ETFs also recorded a strong net inflow of $174 million. This robust buying force was not limited to top assets; ETFs tracking small-cap assets like Solana, XRP, and others also attracted capital. Analysts point out that this indicates TradFi institutions may be rebalancing their crypto assets at the start of a new fiscal year with unprecedented strength, shifting the logic from mere speculation to strategic positioning based on the unique fundamentals of crypto assets.

Year-Start Massive Inflows: A Carefully Planned “Capital Reallocation”

On January 2, 2026, as global financial markets awoke from the holiday, trading data from US spot crypto ETFs injected a strong boost into the entire crypto industry. The single-day net inflow of $669 million was like a boulder thrown into a lake, with ripples quickly spreading across the market. This figure is significant: it is not only the second-highest single-day inflow since November 11, 2025, but also far surpasses the peak of $457 million recorded on December 17, 2025. The arrival of this capital flood has completely reversed the outflow trend caused by tax-loss harvesting and investor redemptions at the end of 2025, clearly signaling a shift in institutional sentiment toward optimism.

A detailed analysis of the $669 million inflow reveals a clear picture of institutional actions. Leading the charge are Bitcoin spot ETFs, which absorbed $471 million, accounting for over 70% of the total inflow. Among them, BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust led with approximately $287 million in a single day, demonstrating its strong brand influence and channel capabilities. Fidelity’s Wise Origin Bitcoin Fund and Bitwise Bitcoin ETF followed with $88 million and $41.5 million respectively. Notably, Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, which had faced continuous outflows due to high management fees, also recorded a net inflow of $15 million that day. This widespread influx of capital strongly suggests coordinated, systematic reallocation by large institutional investors rather than scattered retail buying.

Market intuition quickly picked up on this change. Analysts generally agree that this inflow was not coincidental in timing. After year-end tax planning, institutional investors often adjust their positions at the start of a new fiscal year based on the latest market outlook and asset allocation models. Rapidly deploying large sums into crypto ETFs indicates that mainstream financial institutions are increasing their strategic weight on crypto assets in their portfolios. This “good start” in building positions could set a positive tone for the entire 2026 crypto market and provide concrete data supporting the long-anticipated “institutional bull market.”

Ethereum and Small-Cap Coins Rise: Diversification of Institutional Perspectives

Another notable feature of this capital inflow is the broad diversification of institutional interest. While Bitcoin ETFs attracted most attention, Ethereum spot ETFs also performed well, with a total net inflow of $174 million. This is not only the highest single-day record since December 9, 2025, but also shows subtle changes in the flow pattern compared to 2025. Data indicates that Grayscale Ethereum Trust became the main entry point, with inflows of $53.69 million, while Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust and BlackRock’s iShares Ethereum Trust received $50 million and $47 million respectively. This suggests that institutions are deepening their allocation strategies for Ethereum, viewing it not merely as a “Bitcoin substitute,” but beginning to seriously evaluate its staking economics, smart contract platform value, and future yield potential.

More interesting movements are happening in the small-cap crypto sector. Alongside Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, ETFs tracking XRP and Solana recorded inflows of $13.59 million and $8.53 million respectively. Even the Dogecoin ETF, often seen as a meme coin, attracted $2.3 million, setting a new single-day record since its launch. This “broad distribution” of capital signals a strong market message: institutional crypto allocations are expanding from core assets to satellite assets.

This diversification reflects an evolution in institutional logic. Previously, institutions might have viewed crypto assets as a high-volatility speculative basket. Now, capital is flowing selectively into different sectors and narratives, indicating that institutions are conducting more refined fundamental research and attempting to build internally logical crypto portfolios. For example, allocating to Solana might be based on optimism about its high-throughput blockchain ecosystem, while XRP might be considered for its potential in cross-border payments. This shift from “sector beta” to “project alpha” is a key marker of market maturity and deepening, and will likely bring sustained funding to projects with genuine technology and application value.

2026 First Trading Day US Spot Crypto ETF Capital Inflow Details

• Total Net Inflow: $669 million
• Bitcoin ETF Net Inflow: $471 million
  • BlackRock IBIT: approx. $287 million
  • Fidelity FBTC: $88 million
  • Bitwise BITB: $41.5 million
  • Grayscale GBTC: $15 million
• Ethereum ETF Net Inflow: $174 million
  • Grayscale ETHE: $53.69 million
  • Grayscale Ethereum Mini Trust: $50 million
  • BlackRock ETHA: $47 million
• Other Asset ETFs Net Inflow:
  • XRP ETF: $13.59 million
  • Solana ETF: $8.53 million
  • Dogecoin ETF: $2.3 million

“Decoupling” Narrative Resurfaces: Crypto Assets Demonstrate Independent Pricing Logic

The massive ETF capital inflow event occurred amid a relatively flat or even slightly weak performance in traditional stock markets, bringing back a long-dormant but crucial market narrative: the “decoupling” of crypto assets from traditional risk assets. When major US stock indices fluctuate without clear direction, billions of dollars still pour into crypto ETFs, which cannot be explained simply by “risk appetite increase.” It strongly suggests that the decision-making drivers for institutions are rooted in crypto’s own unique core narratives and fundamentals, rather than traditional capital market sentiment.

So, what unique value propositions are attracting TradFi? For Bitcoin, the answer remains its absolute scarcity and macro hedge properties. In a macro environment with uncertain global central bank monetary policies and ongoing geopolitical risks, Bitcoin’s fixed supply cap of 21 million coins makes it an ideal digital “hard asset” to hedge against potential currency devaluation. Large institutional purchases are likely defensive positions in anticipation of macro volatility. For Ethereum and other smart contract platform tokens, the appeal lies in their intrinsic productivity and yield. Ethereum’s staking mechanism provides tangible income for holders, while its thriving DeFi, NFT, and ecosystem activities create real economic value and capture scenarios. The inflow of institutional capital is an acknowledgment of these blockchain networks’ status as “productive digital assets.”

As a regulated financial instrument, ETFs’ continuous net inflows create a powerful structural locking-in effect. The spot Bitcoin and Ethereum bought by ETFs are stored in custodial cold wallets, effectively reducing circulating supply in the secondary market. Under classic economic models where demand increases while supply decreases, this provides a solid microstructural foundation for long-term price stability and appreciation of crypto assets. This “non-consumptive hoarding” enabled by TradFi tools is quietly changing the supply-demand dynamics of the crypto market, making its pricing logic increasingly independent of traditional stocks or commodities.

Market Impact and Future Outlook: Has the Bull Market Reignited?

This surge of institutional capital undoubtedly brings immediate positive effects to the entire crypto market. The most direct impact is providing solid buy support and price floors. After the end-of-2025 correction, large amounts of low-cost chips have been absorbed by long-term oriented funds like ETFs, greatly cleansing the market’s floating supply and easing future sell-off pressures. Additionally, it boosts market confidence. Institutional “vote with real money” is the strongest endorsement of crypto’s long-term value, capable of reversing retail pessimism and attracting hesitant capital.

However, alongside optimism, rational voices remind us of potential risks and challenges. First, the sustainability of single-day data remains to be seen. Although the “good start” momentum is strong, institutional rebalancing may occur in batches and with rhythm. Whether subsequent capital inflows can maintain this momentum is a key indicator of trend formation. Second, macro risks have not disappeared. Global economic slowdown, interest rate policy shifts, and external “black swan” events could impact all risk assets, and crypto markets are not immune. Lastly, internal structural tests exist. For example, projects like Pi Network still struggle with sell pressure from large token unlocks, with prices lingering around $0.2, highlighting that market funds are highly concentrated in compliant, liquid core assets, while fringe projects face liquidity crises.

Looking ahead to 2026, the role of spot crypto ETFs will shift from being a “market novelty” to a “core driver of market direction.” Their sustained subscription data will serve as a barometer of institutional sentiment. If inflows stabilize, a “slow bull” driven by institutional capital with lower volatility could be expected. Meanwhile, this will also push more crypto projects to improve compliance, transparency, and fundamentals to attract mainstream institutional attention. Market segmentation will become the norm: projects with clear value narratives, strong communities, and real-world applications will enjoy liquidity premiums, while purely speculative projects risk marginalization. The opening act of $669 million may well be the prelude to a more mature, independent crypto asset integration into the global financial system.