As investors worry about rising debt and a weaker dollar, Bitwise analysts Juan Leon and Mallika Kolar looked at how gold and bitcoin actually behave when markets fall and recover. Their conclusion: holding both has historically worked better than choosing one.
This story is an excerpt from the Unchained Daily newsletter.
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In major market selloffs over the past decade, gold consistently softened losses, while bitcoin often fell harder alongside stocks. But when markets rebounded, the roles flipped. Bitcoin tended to lead recoveries, often posting outsized gains, while gold rose more steadily.
The problem, the analysts note, is timing. No one reliably knows when a downturn ends or a recovery begins. Trying to switch between assets at the perfect moment is unrealistic.
Instead, Bitwise found that portfolios holding both gold and bitcoin across full market cycles delivered a stronger balance of protection and upside than traditional portfolios or those holding just one of the two. Gold helped absorb shocks. Bitcoin powered rebounds. Historically, the combination produced better risk-adjusted returns than either asset alone.
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