Bitcoin's "90,000 barrier" remains unbroken! The market is waiting for the Fed's interest rate decision, liquidity, and direction.

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate decision meeting approaches, coupled with intertwined macroeconomic and political risks, investors are turning more conservative. Bitcoin continues to hover below the $90,000 mark today (28), with a strong market wait-and-see atmosphere. On-Chain Data: Market Shifts to Defense, Hedging Demand Rises Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode pointed out in its latest report that spot trading volume has stabilized but remains subdued, indicating the market is in a consolidation phase without a clear trend. The report emphasizes that whether it’s spot, derivatives, or on-chain indicators, all show the market has shifted to a “defensive” posture, with selling pressure still heavy and hedging demand increasing simultaneously.

Glassnode analyst said: “Although leverage ratios are beginning to cool down, the market structure remains fragile under ongoing selling pressure and rising hedging demand. Whether the market can stabilize in the future depends on when bullish buying returns and when selling pressure diminishes.” Institutional Retreat: ETF Loses $1.3 Billion in a Week In fact, institutional investor movements also confirm downside risks. Data shows that global cryptocurrency ETPs experienced net outflows of $1.7 billion last week; the US Bitcoin spot ETF recorded net outflows for five consecutive trading days, with total losses exceeding $1.3 billion. This typical “de-risking” phenomenon aligns with the trend of weakening crypto prices. As institutional demand cools, Bitcoin has retraced more than 10% from its mid-January high of $97,850.

Bitfinex’s analysis team observed that the derivatives market’s short-term volatility curve has become significantly steeper. This indicates traders are engaging in tactical hedging for short-term events (such as Fed decisions), rather than bearish outlooks on the medium to long-term market structure. The implied volatility of forward contracts has not changed much, suggesting the market is not overly panicked.

From a macroeconomic perspective, analysts generally believe that Bitcoin’s resistance at the $90,000 level reflects a re-pricing of interest rate expectations rather than a collapse of demand structure.

Jimmy Xue, co-founder of Axis, pointed out that as market expectations for “higher interest rates to persist longer” increase, the investment threshold for risk assets has risen sharply. Bitcoin must compete directly with risk-free US Treasuries yielding nearly 4%. He emphasized:

Bitcoin must leverage its advantage as a structural hedging tool to participate in the competition, rather than just being a ‘high Beta liquidity sponge.’

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Selling Cryptocurrencies, Turning to Gold and Silver Broader risk-off sentiment has intensified this backdrop. Geopolitical turmoil, the US government shutdown crisis, and the concentrated risk of large tech earnings reports have all prompted capital to flee into traditional safe-haven assets like gold and silver. Wincent senior director Paul Howard pointed out that concerns over the macroeconomy are prompting traders to sell cryptocurrencies and shift into commodities.

OKX Singapore CEO Gracie Lin said that as multiple macroeconomic risks overlap, the market is extremely sensitive to news. With gold reaching new highs and unresolved political and regulatory uncertainties, Bitcoin is likely to remain range-bound in the short term.

She noted that what truly influences the market outlook is not necessarily the interest rate decision itself, but the liquidity changes and market risk appetite before and after the decision.