The Israeli military is hunting for spies on Polymarket

Author: Azuma, Odaily Planet Daily

The unfair competitive advantage brought by insider information has long been a controversial focus in prediction markets like Polymarket.
Previously, during the U.S. military’s arrest of Venezuelan President Maduro, the odds related to the incident on Polymarket shifted early. If that suspected insider trading could be explained by fluctuations in the “Pizza Index,” then this time, the presence of an insider on Polymarket has been thoroughly confirmed.
Israeli Military Internal Crackdown on “Insiders”
On February 12, The Jerusalem Post reported that the Tel Aviv District Court filed charges on Monday against an Israeli civilian and an IDF reservist, accusing them of using classified military information to profit from betting on Polymarket. The court revealed on Thursday that Israeli authorities believe this behavior posed a serious operational security risk during wartime.
According to a statement released with approval from prosecutors, the suspects were arrested during joint operations involving the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), the security units under the Ministry of Defense, and the Israeli police. Investigators suspect that some reservists are leveraging confidential information obtained through their military duties to place bets on military operations and profit from them.
Following these investigations, prosecutors stated they have evidence of improper conduct by the civilian and the reservist, leading to charges of “serious security crimes,” bribery, and obstruction of justice. They also requested the court extend the suspects’ detention until the case is resolved.
Beyond the publicly released information, further details of the case remain legally restricted, including the identities of the defendants, specific betting content, and the flow of information involved.
Tracking the Insider Activity
Although we cannot identify the true identities or account details of the insider, the X community had already spotted an account exhibiting suspicious behavior on Polymarket. The Jerusalem Post also published a screenshot of the account’s profits.

As shown in the image, the user named Rundeep joined Polymarket in June 2025 and achieved a 100% win rate across six prediction markets related to Israeli military actions. Five of these bets were placed when the probability was below 50%, ultimately earning over $150,000.

Notably, Odaily Planet Daily found that aside from these six successful bets, Rundeep had one loss on Polymarket. That loss was unrelated to Israel but involved a prediction about whether the U.S. military would take action against Iran on Saturday, June 21, 2025. The U.S. intelligence and allied intelligence remain somewhat uncertain.
The Real-World Impact of Prediction Market Manipulation—A Deep Reflection
Due to Polymarket’s open and permissionless nature, anyone can freely place bets on the platform. This objectively provides groups with an informational advantage a more convenient channel to monetize their intelligence—driven by profit motives, those holding unequal information find it hard to resist the temptation, and insider trading or malicious betting becomes almost inevitable.
If such incidents occurred in sports, entertainment, or other conventional fields, the impact might still be manageable. But when these events happen in politics or even wartime, insider betting scandals could lead to terrifying consequences that are hard to imagine.
For example, in this case, if an opposing force had used insider information on Polymarket to predict Israeli military actions in advance, it could significantly influence subsequent developments. While many may find it hard to empathize with Israel, the fact is that such incidents could happen to any entity.
In traditional betting domains, public affairs like political elections, legislative outcomes, or wars are usually subject to clear regulations. Whether prediction markets will face similar regulatory restrictions in the future remains a long-term regulatory game.