Trump to decide within 15 days whether to go to war with Iran, two aircraft carriers deployed, oil prices hit a six-month high

U.S. President Trump issues a 10–15 day final ultimatum to Iran, with the Persian Gulf amassing the largest military force since 2003, Brent crude oil surpassing $71, Bitcoin and risk assets under pressure simultaneously.
(Background summary: Is Trump counting down to a “decisive strike” on Iran? Stalemate in U.S.-Iran nuclear talks, Lincoln aircraft carrier arrives in the Middle East… Pizza index soars again)
(Additional background: Iran’s central bank secretly stockpiled $500 million USDT last year! Revealed to be used to stabilize the rial exchange rate and respond to international sanctions)

Table of Contents

• Geneva Negotiations: Progress but Major Gaps Remain
• Oil Prices Surge, Gold Continues to Strengthen
• Crypto Fear & Greed Index Still at Extreme Fear
• War Premium or Negotiation Leverage?

On February 19, Trump delivered a blunt final warning to Iran at the Washington Peace Council meeting: “Either both sides reach an agreement, or it will be very unfortunate for them.” He gave a window of 10 to 15 days, after which the U.S. will decide whether to continue diplomatic negotiations or order military strikes.

In addition to verbal threats, CNN reports that U.S. forces have completed a large-scale deployment in the Middle East, including the Lincoln and Ford aircraft carriers, with Lincoln carrying nearly 80 aircraft, approximately 700 kilometers from Iran’s coast. Foreign media describe this as the largest U.S. military buildup in the Middle East since the Iraq War in 2003.

Military analysts note that if war breaks out, it will not be a precision strike but a sustained large-scale operation lasting weeks.

Geneva Negotiations: Progress but Major Gaps Remain

Another aspect of military pressure is the diplomatic window. On February 17, the U.S. and Iran held their second indirect nuclear negotiation in Geneva, mediated by Oman. Afterward, Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi stated that both sides had reached broad consensus on “guiding principles” and called the negotiations “progressing well.”

However, White House spokesperson Karoline Leavitt’s wording was notably cautious: “There has been some progress, but we are still far apart on certain issues.”

The core disagreement remains: the U.S. demands Iran fully abandon its nuclear weapons development capabilities, while Iran insists on retaining its civilian nuclear program rights. Trump’s administration employs a classic “gunboat diplomacy” approach—showing maximum good faith at the negotiation table while flexing the strongest muscle in the Persian Gulf.

Oil Prices Surge, Gold Continues to Strengthen

Iran’s response is equally tough. The Revolutionary Guard is conducting military exercises simultaneously in the Hormuz Strait, Persian Gulf, and Oman Gulf, with passing ships receiving radio warnings of live-fire drills. The Hormuz Strait is the gateway for about 21 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for 20% of global supply. Any blockade or conflict would directly impact the global energy market.

Market reactions are also shifting toward risk aversion. Brent crude oil surpasses $71 per barrel, hitting recent highs, with analysts noting that oil prices have already priced in significant “geopolitical risk premiums.”

Crypto Fear & Greed Index Still at Extreme Fear

Bitcoin briefly dropped below $66,000 amid U.S.-Iran tensions last night, rebounding to $67,336 before press time. Currently, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index is at 12, still in “extreme fear” territory.

Ethereum’s situation is even more precarious, with the price still below the $2,000 psychological level. If Middle East tensions worsen further, ETH could test lower support levels.

War Premium or Negotiation Leverage?

Market speculation is rampant: Is Trump’s final ultimatum a prelude to actual war, or is it maximum pressure to bring Iran back to the negotiating table? If conflict erupts and the Hormuz Strait is blocked, the resulting energy crisis, global inflation pressures, and liquidity tightening would be detrimental to all risk assets.

Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren has publicly questioned whether the president has the constitutional authority to initiate war without congressional approval. However, under Trump’s executive powers, market participants are well aware of how strong that constraint is.

In the next 10 to 15 days, every piece of news from the Persian Gulf could trigger market volatility—investors should remain alert to potential risks.