Key Insights
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Polymarket traders assign 86% odds to a March close below $80, sharply reducing expectations for a recovery toward $100.
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Open interest dropped 6.49% while volume fell 23%, signaling broad deleveraging across Solana derivatives markets.
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Solana holds an ascending trendline near $80, but repeated rejections near $92 keep broader downtrend pressure intact.
Solana traded near $83.52 on Monday after defending a key support zone just above $80, even as prediction markets signaled rising expectations of further downside. Data from Polymarket shows traders now assign an 86 percent probability that Solana will close March below $80. The shift reflects a sharp deterioration in sentiment as leveraged positions unwind across derivatives markets.
Polymarket participants have also reduced expectations for a recovery toward $100. The odds of a month-end close at $100 stand at 36%, down from 50% a week ago. Meanwhile, markets price a 47% probability of a drop below $70 and a 20% chance of a slide under $60.
Support Zone Faces Pressure
The daily chart on TradingView shows Solana holding a broad support band between $83 and $67. In late February, price briefly touched $67.57 before rebounding above $80 and forming a higher low. That move created a long lower wick, which signaled strong buying interest at depressed levels.
However, technical pressure remains firm above current levels. The 20-day EMA sits at $86.05, while the 50-day EMA stands at $98.97. A descending trendline from September highs near $260 continues to cap rallies near $90 to $92.
Open Interest Signals Deleveraging
Derivatives data from Coinglass shows open interest fell 6.49% to $4.83 billion as trading volume dropped more than 23%. This decline points to reduced participation as traders trim risk ahead of key support tests. Total liquidations reached $1.11 million, with long positions accounting for over half of the losses.
Despite the flush, leverage remains skewed to the upside. The long to short ratio on Binance stands above 2.4 for accounts and above 3.0 for top traders. Options volume has risen sharply, which indicates that participants are actively hedging downside exposure.
Intraday Structure Tests Trendline
On the two-hour chart, Solana trades above an ascending trendline that has guided price higher since the February rebound. This trendline now aligns closely with the $80 level and forms the immediate floor buyers must protect. The Parabolic SAR hovers near $85.97 and reinforces short-term resistance.
Source: TradingView
Price continues to struggle near the $92 horizontal barrier. The Chaikin Money Flow remains near zero, which reflects balanced inflows and outflows during consolidation.
A daily close below $80 would break the ascending trendline and validate the bearish positioning seen on Polymarket. Such a move would expose the $75 to $70 demand zone and reopen the path toward the February low at $67.57.
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