Bitcoin Posts Its Strongest Weekly Gain Since October 2025: CPI Cooldown and US-Iran Ceasefire Provide a Double Boost, Lifting the Price to $73K

Bitcoin (BTC) posted its largest week-over-week gain since October 2025. Against the backdrop of U.S. core CPI data beating expectations in March, and the Iran–Iraq ceasefire agreement lifting overall risk sentiment, the coin price briefly broke through $73,000. This is the most clear-cut shift in market sentiment since Bitcoin made a major correction from its all-time high of $126,198.

Core CPI comes in below expectations, boosting Fed rate-cut expectations

According to data released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) on April 10, March’s overall CPI rose 0.9% month over month, and the year-over-year rate increased to 3.3%. It was mainly dragged down by a surge in energy prices—oil prices jumped sharply after the Iran–Iraq war broke out, with gasoline prices up 21.2% month over month, accounting for nearly three-quarters of the overall inflation increase.

However, what truly influences market sentiment is the core CPI data. Per a CoinDesk report, excluding food and energy, core CPI in March rose only 0.2% month over month, below the market’s expectation of 0.3%; the year-over-year figure of 2.6% also came in below the expected 2.7%. This suggests that price pressure outside energy remains relatively under control, leaving room for the Federal Reserve (Fed) to restart rate cuts later on. After the data was released, Bitcoin rose in the short term from around $72,000 to above $72,400, while U.S. stock index futures also edged higher in tandem.

Before this, the market had already almost fully priced in the Fed keeping rates unchanged at the late-April and June meetings, with the rate-cut window expected to shift to the second half of the year. Core CPI’s “surprise cooling” led some investors to reassess the possibility that the Fed could turn more dovish earlier than previously thought.

The Iran–Iraq ceasefire becomes the biggest macro catalyst, and Bitcoin rallies nearly 7% this week

Besides the CPI data, another key driver of this week’s move is the easing of the geopolitical situation. According to Investing.com, after the Iran–Iraq ceasefire took effect in April, oil prices pulled back from their highs, easing pressure on energy costs and also cooling worries that the Fed might be forced to raise rates.

CoinDesk analysis notes that Bitcoin rebounded nearly 7% from this week’s start-of-week low, marking its strongest weekly performance since the October 2025 high. At the weekend, representatives from both sides of the Iran–Iraq conflict are expected to hold further ceasefire talks in Pakistan. If the negotiations go smoothly, Bitcoin’s price action is likely to accelerate further—because a solid ceasefire would help normalize oil tanker passage through the Strait of Hormuz, directly lowering inflation expectations.

At present, BTC is consolidating in the $72,000–$73,000 range, and U.S. stocks have also turned positive for a second consecutive week. The S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average both gained more than 3% on the week, while the Nasdaq index rose more than 4%.

Technicals: Volatility compresses to the lowest level since early 2024; the market waits for a directional breakout

From a technical perspective, Bitcoin has been ranging between $63,000 and $75,000 since the start of February this year, with the Bollinger Bands narrowing to the tightest level since early 2024. Crypto analyst Eric Crown pointed out that historically, whenever Bitcoin undergoes such an extreme compression in volatility, it is often followed by a major directional breakout with a potential move of around 40%.

On the upside, if it can break through $75,000 effectively, it would trigger a short squeeze. On the downside, if it falls below $70,000, it could liquidate roughly $200 million in long positions. Although institutional investors are still placing bullish bets via $80,000 call options, they are also buying downside protection at the same time, suggesting there is still no strong conviction about direction. This month, net inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs have totaled only $22.9 million; compared with last month’s $1.3 billion inflow, the pace has clearly slowed, further reflecting a more cautious institutional sentiment.

What to watch next: The outcome of the ceasefire talks and the Fed’s stance

For crypto investors in Taiwan, the biggest takeaway from this week’s market is that the correlation between Bitcoin and macro variables continues to deepen. A mild core CPI and the cooling in oil prices brought by the ceasefire are both positive signals supporting coin prices. But if the ceasefire talks break down this weekend and conflict resumes, energy prices may surge again—at which point renewed pressure for the Fed to restart rate hikes would put the crypto market under strain.

In the short term, key indicators to watch include: progress on the Iran–Iraq–Pakistan talks over the weekend, oil prices and the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, and forward guidance ahead of the Fed’s late-April rate decision meeting. Until direction becomes clear, Bitcoin is likely to keep trading in the current range, waiting for the next catalyst that can break the deadlock.

This article Bitcoin posts the strongest weekly gain since October 2025: CPI cooling and the Iran–Iraq ceasefire bring dual tailwinds to push coin prices to $73K first appeared on Lian News ABMedia.