Gate News reports that on March 18, according to PolyBeats monitoring, three addresses that have previously profited $480,000 in Middle East-related markets on Polymarket invested $11,800 in the “Yes” option betting whether Netanyahu will step down before March 31. The current probability of this event is 3%. On March 14, Netanyahu was absent from a critical war cabinet meeting for the first time in history, reportedly missing up to seven cabinet or security meetings during the peak of mid-March. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office did not provide specific reasons for the absence, only stating that he is actively leading military operations. In response to rumors, Netanyahu’s social media accounts posted multiple videos from March 13 to 17. The first video of a press conference appeared to show a “six-finger” visual anomaly due to light and shadow effects; subsequent clarification videos pointed out details such as physical distortion of a coffee cup, the disappearance of a ring on the ring finger in certain frames, and abnormal height proportions, raising doubts that the videos were AI-generated. Based on trading patterns, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur but appears to be engaging in opening and closing positions for profit or loss at certain times.
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