US economic data slumped the currency market! The pace of interest rate cuts may slow down, and the rise without falling may end the CryptocurrencyBull Market?

Entering 2025, the global economic situation remains complex, especially with the recent strong performance of the US economic data, which has triggered a reassessment of the future Fed interest rate policy in the market. At the same time, the price of Bitcoin has also experienced drastic fluctuations, which have had a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. Firstly, the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data released today by the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) showed that job vacancies unexpectedly increased to 8.098 million in November 2024, far exceeding market expectations of 7.7 million. The job vacancy rate rose to 4.8% in November, and the quit rate decreased, with the number of employees voluntarily leaving their jobs decreasing from 3.28 million in October to 3.06 million. This data indicates that the US labor market remains tight and economic activity continues to expand. Businesses may be waiting to see the direction of Trump’s policies after taking office, including tax cuts, increased import tariffs, and plans to expel illegal immigrants. However, the stronger-than-expected employment market report has once again raised market expectations for the Fed to maintain its current interest rate policy, triggering the sale of risk assets and price declines. In addition, the ISM non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) for December also performed well, rising from 52.1 in November to 54.1, exceeding expectations. This combination of data has led to a renewed increase in U.S. Treasury yields, with the 10-year Treasury yield approaching recent highs, weakening investors’ expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve and even increasing expectations of a rate hike, resulting in a sharp reaction in the cryptocurrency market. In the trading after the release of economic data, the price of BTC quickly fell below the psychological barrier of $100,000, and fell by 5% within 24 hours. The decline of major altcoins such as Ethereum (ETH) and Solana (SOL) was even more pronounced, with declines of 8% and 10% respectively. Due to the sharp change in market sentiment, approximately $600 million of cryptocurrency long positions were forcibly liquidated, marking the start of a new round of market reshuffling. This wave of price pullback has not only caused heavy losses to investors, but also triggered widespread concerns about the future direction of Cryptocurrency in the market. Market analysts point out that traders have reduced their expectations for a rate cut by the Fed in 2025 to the lowest level, and even the possibility of a rate cut, Cryptocurrency prices may continue to be under pressure in the short term. According to economists’ analysis, the Fed may become more cautious in the new year, especially considering the pressure of inflation and the current economic environment. If the US labor market remains healthy in the future, the Fed may only cut interest rates once this year. If the Consumer Price Index (PCE) rebounds to above 3% in the middle of the year, the Fed will have to reconsider the possibility of raising interest rates. Currently, market data shows that traders believe the probability of the Fed maintaining the Intrerest Rate unchanged at this month’s Intrerest Rate meeting is over 95%. At the same time, the probability of a rate cut originally expected in March has also dropped from nearly 50% to 37%. This change further shakes investors’ confidence in the encryption market. Despite facing many challenges in the current market, some analysts remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of BTC and other cryptocurrencies. Bitwise Asset Management, in its latest report, points out that despite the potential short-term impact of economic policies, BTC fundamentals remain strong and there is hope for better performance by 2025. The upcoming halving event and potential reserve strategies will support its future upward trend, with a projected price of over $1 million by 2029. However, the short-term Fluctuation in the market is still significant. As the Federal Reserve tightens its policy, the performance of traditional assets is also affected, and the appreciation of the US dollar tightens the financial environment, leading to a decrease in investors’ risk appetite. Whether BTC can stand out in such an environment still needs further observation. In short, the current economic situation and market dynamics have shown that the BTC price is affected by multiple factors. The current expectation of a Fed rate cut has significantly decreased, which may put pressure on the cryptocurrency market and may even directly end this bull market in the future. In such a market environment, investors need to remain vigilant and closely monitor changes in economic data and the direction of the Fed’s policy in order to better grasp future investment opportunities. The future of Crypto Assets market is still full of fluctuations, and how to deal with these challenges will be a question that every investor needs to think carefully about. #encryption Market Fluctuation