Gate News reports that on March 16, Polymarket prediction market data showed that in the past 24 hours, an address with an 88% probability prediction bet $5,500 on “US and Iran ceasefire before July,” with an opening average price of 60.4¢, currently at 58.5¢.
On the 15th, Trump stated that the U.S. is in contact with Iran but doubts Tehran is ready for “serious negotiations”; on the same day, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wray said in a TV interview that the war “will definitely end within the next few weeks, or possibly sooner.” However, Iranian Foreign Minister Amir Abdollahian immediately publicly denied that Tehran had sought a ceasefire or negotiations, stating Iran is “ready to fight as long as it takes.”
Oman and Egypt have recently been trying to restart communication channels between the U.S. and Iran. Two sources said Oman previously mediated before the conflict and is now attempting to reopen contact lines, but the White House has made it clear there is no interest for now; three security and diplomatic sources said Egypt is also trying to restore communication. An Iranian source added that Tehran refuses any ceasefire unless the U.S. and Israel stop airstrikes first and meet conditions such as “permanent cessation of attacks” and compensation.
Note: Based on this trader’s past trading profile, they are not betting on whether the event will actually happen, but may close positions for profit or loss at certain points after opening. Account address: 0xb03b826a4fc9893b35d3ddf4f11be824525b6ca1.
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