2026-03-31 09:45 to 10:00 (UTC), BTC’s return over 15 minutes recorded -0.58%, with a trading range of 65,996.1–66,509.1 USDT, an amplitude of 0.77%. Short-term volatility intensified, drawing market attention. On-chain total transfer volume reached 420,000, with transaction count as high as 27,986, indicating funds moving quickly and a stepwise increase in market participation, though overall trading remains cautious.
The main drivers behind this unusual move are rebalancing by large on-chain funds and an acceleration in fund flows. On-chain data shows both total transfer volume and transaction count rising together. Institutional or whale funds are frequently repositioning, creating direct pressure on short-term prices. At the same time, while ETF capital recorded a net inflow of 87 million USD, overall market liquidity remains insufficient, making it difficult for buy-side demand to be sustained, and prices remain under downward pressure.
In addition, market expectations of MetaPlanet’s large financing to buy coins led some funds to position early, pushing on-chain activity higher. However, staged entry did not form a concentrated buy order. Macroeconomic uncertainties such as potential interest-rate hikes by the European Central Bank further amplify fluctuations in risk appetite. ETF asset management scale fell below 100 billion USD, and institutions remain cautious. Funds rotate among major cryptocurrencies; ETH saw a net outflow of 185 million USD during the same period, further magnifying the synchronization between global liquidity stress and volatility in crypto assets.
Currently, BTC’s supply of profitable and loss-making positions is gradually converging, and the market is not showing large-scale panic selling. However, liquidity is still relatively weak, and price action is sensitive to unexpected news. Going forward, attention should be paid to the continuity of on-chain fund flows, changes in ETF spot holdings, and the movement of exchange balances, as well as macro policy signals. With short-term volatility risk increasing, investors should heighten vigilance, closely monitor key support and resistance levels, and watch more market updates to respond to changes in market conditions.
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