Fidelity Investments: Bitcoin testing long-term support—are bullish divergences signaling a potential base being formed?

Fidelity’s global macroeconomics director Jurrien Timmer posted a Bitcoin price trend analysis chart on X, saying that Bitcoin continues to hover in the $65k to $70k range, and is trying to form a bottom after going through a mild winter in which it fell from $126k to $60k. The current price level is being supported by factors including technical indicators, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio, and Bitcoin’s deviation from its power law trend line.

Bitcoin receives support from its power law support line

On X, Fidelity’s global macroeconomics director Jurrien Timmer shared a chart showing Bitcoin’s price trend and multiple forms of analysis data. The most critical reference indicator is the “power law support line” (BTC price powe law support line) represented by the orange dashed line. This trend line reflects Bitcoin’s long-term price-bottom trajectory, and historically, the lows from several major bear markets have all found support near this line. As of the end of March 2026, Bitcoin has pulled back from its $124,515 high; its current price is now testing a support zone around roughly $60,030. This area not only overlaps with the power law support line, but also falls within the historical support band marked on the chart, indicating that this price level has significant value to watch from a technical standpoint.

The Z-score for the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio is already deeply negative

The orange bar chart at the bottom of the chart represents the “Bitcoin-to-gold ratio’s 52-week Z-score.” This indicator is mainly used to measure how extremely the price volatility of Bitcoin compares to gold, a traditional safe-haven asset. When the Z-score shows a large positive value, it usually suggests that Bitcoin is overheated relative to gold. Conversely, when the value is deeply negative (such as the current -100%), it indicates that Bitcoin is at a statistically low point relative to gold. Historical data show that after this indicator touches extreme negative levels, it is often accompanied by corrections and rebalancing across market cycles.

Bitcoin bullish divergence—are bottoming signals brewing?

The blue bar chart quantifies the “deviation of Bitcoin’s price from the power law trend line.” When the price is far above the long-term trend, the bars show positive values; when the price is near to or below the trend line, the bars are negative (currently about -45%). The chart especially highlights “bullish divergence” and “bearish divergence” phenomena over the years. Divergence usually occurs when price makes a new low or a new high, but the corresponding indicator fails to keep up. On the lower right corner of the chart, a potential “bullish divergence” is marked, suggesting that technical indicators may be beginning to form a bottoming signal.

Bitcoin’s current price outlook and market prospects

Based on the combined analysis of the above indicators, Jurrien Timmer believes Bitcoin is currently at a critical macro-technical testing point. Not only has the price fallen to the vicinity of the long-term power law support line, but relative to the gold ratio and the deviation indicators, it also shows characteristics of being relatively low. The chart’s potential “bullish divergence” suggests that if price can stabilize within this support zone, the market may see a post-correction consolidation or a rebound. However, investors should still pay attention to inflation pressure and liquidity changes in the broader macroeconomic environment.

This article, Fidelity Investments: Bitcoin tests long-term support—bullish divergence brewing a bottoming signal?, first appeared on Chain News ABMedia.