Gate News reports that on March 18, according to PolyBeats monitoring, four smart money addresses invested a total of $97,000 on the prediction market Polymarket, betting “No” on the question “Will the Iranian regime fall before June 30?” Currently, the probability of “Yes” is 28%.
According to settlement rules, if before June 30, Iran’s core ruling structures (such as the Supreme Leader’s Office, the Guardian Council, the Revolutionary Guards, etc.) are dissolved, become non-operational, or are fundamentally replaced by a different regime, resulting in the loss of effective control over the majority of the population, the market will settle as “Yes.” Routine political events (such as elections, reforms, leadership succession), as well as internal power changes within the core structures, do not meet the criteria. If only parts of the territory are lost or rebel groups challenge the government, as long as the current regime still governs most of the population, the market will not settle as “Yes.”
Analysts who believe the regime will fall point out that Iran is currently under direct military strikes targeting key military and energy facilities, along with long-term economic sanctions. Additionally, the long-term concealment of Supreme Leader Khamenei’s successor, Muqtada, has sparked speculation about serious factional struggles or even loss of control among the top leadership. On the other hand, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) still firmly controls domestic security and military forces, and the regime continues to conduct effective geopolitical maneuvers through control of the Strait of Hormuz, maintaining its survival resources.
Yesterday (March 17), Iran’s official confirmed that Ali Larijani, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike, was the de facto top decision-maker after Khamenei’s death for a period, responsible for coordinating conflicts between President Raisi (a moderate) and the IRGC hardliners, as well as leading diplomatic negotiations with the US and Israel. Several analysts suggest that his death may accelerate the public exposure of internal fractures.
The four addresses are: 0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101, 0x60f7293958a1b49f25a00a6af0199cbc7a1c050b, 0xa8948e141de09e8ed204681e4beb4d2473075324, 0x7744bfd749a70020d16a1fcbac1d064761c9999e, with a total investment of $97,000.
Disclaimer: The information on this page may come from third parties and does not represent the views or opinions of Gate. The content displayed on this page is for reference only and does not constitute any financial, investment, or legal advice. Gate does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information and shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of this information. Virtual asset investments carry high risks and are subject to significant price volatility. You may lose all of your invested principal. Please fully understand the relevant risks and make prudent decisions based on your own financial situation and risk tolerance. For details, please refer to
Disclaimer.
Related Articles
Kalshi Traders Forecast XRP to Hit $1.60 in April
Kalshi traders predict XRP will reach $1.60 in April amid rising demand and significant ETF inflows. With a bullish technical outlook and upcoming regulatory votes, XRP's market dynamics show potential for further gains, despite risks of declining support levels if outcomes are unfavorable.
CryptoFrontier13h ago
Premier League Tottenham vs Brighton is a crucial matchup, with Polymarket forecasting a 50% chance that Tottenham will be relegated
Tottenham Hotspur this season has surged from Europa League champions all the way to the relegation zone, facing a relegation battle. In the 14 matches without a win, the team has been hit by a series of injuries and a change in head coach, and an ESPN report says that poor passing ability is a key factor. Sunday’s match against Brighton will be a do-or-die game for survival; if they lose, it will seriously affect morale and the standings. Successful survival requires three major conditions, and for a former “pyramid” club, relegation will inevitably cause a major loss.
ChainNewsAbmedia18h ago
Hong Kong SFC Investment Committee Warns Prediction Market Trading May Constitute Illegal Gambling
The Hong Kong SFC warns that prediction markets are speculative and not investment products, lacking regulatory protection. They involve gambling elements, potentially making them illegal. The committee urges the public to differentiate between investment and gambling.
GateNews21h ago
Prediction Markets Show Stark Wealth Concentration: 84% of Traders Lose Money
Prediction markets show stark wealth concentration, with 84.1% of Polymarket traders losing money, while just 0.04% hold over 70% of profits. Legislative efforts like the BETS OFF Act aim to regulate betting on sensitive events, as concerns rise over user protections amid the entry of major financial institutions.
GateNews04-17 19:41
DAZN Partners with ADI Predictstreet to Launch Blockchain Prediction Market for 2026 World Cup
DAZN partners with ADI Predictstreet to introduce a blockchain prediction market for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Users can engage in real-time predictions, utilizing advanced technology for privacy and scalability, despite regulatory challenges in Europe.
GateNews04-17 14:31
Hong Kong Suspends Basketball Betting Project Amid Concerns Over Prediction Markets and Illegal Gambling
Hong Kong's government has suspended its basketball betting project due to concerns over the rapid growth of prediction markets linked to illegal gambling. With monthly trading volumes rising dramatically, authorities aim to enhance public education and collaborate on measures against gambling.
GateNews04-17 08:01
