Gate News reports that on March 13th, data from a prediction platform showed that within the past 24 hours, an address with a 61% win rate in political markets invested $75,200, betting that “the US and Iran will cease fire before May.” The opening average price was 46.6¢, with the current probability at 39.5%. Currently, the core demands of the Trump administration include Iran must restrain its proxy armed attacks and stop retaliatory strikes against Israel and US allies. In exchange, the US has hinted through public statements and indirect channels that if Iran remains restrained and avoids blocking the Strait of Hormuz, US punitive actions may “end soon”; on the other hand, if Iran attempts to disrupt global energy supplies, the US will retaliate “20 times harder.” Iran’s primary goal after facing strikes is to ensure a smooth internal transition of power. New leader Mullah Mohammad Javad Khamenei has taken office but has not yet appeared publicly. His first statement via state media emphasized maintaining national stability. Tehran’s current public demand is that the US and Israel must immediately cease all military actions against Iranian territory and pay compensation. They are also deploying mines, drones, and asymmetric tactics in the Strait of Hormuz to strengthen their bargaining chips, even threatening to set regional oil and gas infrastructure “on fire.” This trader may not be solely betting on whether the event will actually occur but may also be engaging in swing trading, taking profits or cutting losses at certain points based on changing circumstances.
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