Gate News message, April 17 — International Energy Agency (IEA) Director Fatih Birol stated that restoring most of the oil and natural gas production disrupted by the Iran conflict could take up to two years. Damage from the conflict has already impacted oil fields, refineries, and pipelines across the Persian Gulf region, making capacity recovery a gradual process.
The critical energy shipping corridor, the Strait of Hormuz, has been nearly closed, causing the market to lose hundreds of millions of barrels of crude oil and refined products. Birol emphasized that the common perception of immediate production recovery once the strait reopens is misleading. “People generally believe that once we see the strait opening, capacity will immediately return to previous levels—but in my view, this thinking is deceptive,” he said.
Liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply recovery will be even slower. Some receiving terminals damaged in attacks may require more than two years to return to normal operations. Birol also noted that energy-importing emerging economies, particularly in Asia and Africa, will be hit hardest if the conflict persists.
Early signs of demand contraction are already visible, including energy rationing, reduced economic activity, and rising inflationary pressure.
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