Gate News Report, March 12 — The International Energy Agency (IEA) sharply downgraded its forecast for oil supply growth in 2026, one day after implementing a historic emergency stock release. The IEA now expects this year’s oil supply to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day, significantly down from the previous estimate of 2.4 million barrels per day. The Middle East conflict has disrupted the flow through the Strait of Hormuz, forcing major Gulf producers to cut output. All supply growth is now expected to come from regions outside OPEC+. The IEA monthly report shows that March oil supply is projected to plummet by 8 million barrels per day to 98.8 million barrels per day, the lowest level since Q1 2022. Total oil production in Gulf countries has decreased by at least 10 million barrels per day. The IEA states, “The Middle East conflict is causing the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market.” If shipping flows cannot be quickly restored, further supply losses are likely.
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